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New Evidences on the Climatic Causes of the Formation of the spring persistent rains over Southeastern China

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第6期26卷 1081-1087页

作者：万日金赵兵科吴国雄 Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The spring persistent rains（SPR）over southeastern China（SEC）are a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia.A former study has found that the southwesterly flow which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau（TP）is one of the deflected westerly flows of the TP,and it is suggested to be the direct climatic cause of *** study found that the southwesterly flow is also highly correlated with the sensible heating of the southeastern TP in interannual variability,in addition to having a high correlation in seasonal *** facts suggest that the thermal forcing of the TP is another important climatic cause of *** sensitivity experiments further prove that the mechanical and thermal forcings of the TP are the climatic causes of the formation of the *** the other hand,the Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains（NWM）over southeastern China not only increase the SPR precipitation amount evidently,but also make the SPR rain belt move to the south by blocking the strong southwesterly flow.

关键词： spring persistent rains climatic causes southwesterly flow the Tibet Plateau sensitivity experiments

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A PREDICTION SCHEME FOR THE PRECIPITATION OF SPR BASED ON THE DATA MINING ALGORITHM AND CIRCULATION ANALYSIS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第4期25卷 519-527页

作者： LI Chao SHI Da・wei CHEN Yu-tian ZHANG Hong-hua GENG Huan-tong WANG Peng Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008 China Meteorological Bureau of Lianyungang City Lianyungang 222000 China College of Geography Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China College of Continuing Education Nanjing University of Infbnnation Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China

Based on the 74 circulation indexes provided by National Climate Center of China(NCC) and the 24 indexes compiled by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) of the US, the study used the C4.5 algorithm in data mining to establish a decision tree prediction model to predict whether the spring persistent rains(SPR) of 55 years(from 1961 to 2015) is more than the normal, and obtained 5 rules to determine whether the SPR is more than the normal. The accuracy rate of the test set, namely "whether the SPR is more than the normal", is 98.18%. After the evaluation of the model by conducting ten 10-fold cross validations to take the average value, the test accuracy rate gained is 84%. There are differences between the three types of years with a SPR more than the normal when it comes to intensity and distribution. In spring, they have respective anomalous 850 hPa monthly mean wind fields and water-vapor flux distribution, and 700 hPa forms the zone where the vertical speed is anomalously negative. As indicated by the results, the SPR prediction model based on the C4.5 algorithm has a high prediction accuracy rate, the model is reasonably and effectively constructed, and the decision rules take comprehensive factors into consideration. The anomalous rainfall and circulation distribution characteristics obtained based on the decision classification results provide new ideas and methods for the prediction of SPR.

关键词： spring persistent rains data mining C4.5 algorithm prediction model model analysis

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