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Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species(Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第1期35卷 117-127页

作者： Suresh Chandra Subedi Seth Drake Binaya Adhikari Mark V.Coggeshall Department of Biological Sciences Arkansas Tech UniversityRussellvilleARUSA Department of Biology University of KentuckyLexingtonKYUSA School of Natural Resources University of Missouri203 ABNR BuildingColumbiaMO 65211USA

Quercus arkansana(Arkansas oak)is at risk of becoming endangered,as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations.The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high,yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited.Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habi-tat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known loca-tions of current distribution of Q.arkansana.We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for 2050,2070,and 2090.Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q.arkansana is approximately 127,881 km^(2) across seven states(Texas,Arkansas,Alabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,Georgia,and Florida);approximately 9.5%is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas.Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disap-pear by 2050 due to climate change,resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky.The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas sug-gests that a species-specific action plan incorporating pro-tected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conserva-tion.Moreover,protection of Q.arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies,adaptive management strategies,and educational outreach among local people.

关键词： Biomod2 Climate change Conservation Habitat loss Habitat shift species distribution modeling Oak species

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Environmental drivers of seasonal shifts in abundance of wild pigs(Sus scrofa)in a tropical island environment

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Ecological Processes 2022年第1期11卷 772-786页

作者： Derek R.Risch Shaya Honarvar Melissa R.Price Natural Resources and Environmental Department University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa1910 East-West RoadHonoluluHI 96822USA Pacific Cooperative Studies Unit University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa3190 Maile WayHonoluluHI 96822USA

Background:Non-native wild pigs(Sus scrofa)threaten sensitive flora and fauna,cost billions of dollars in economic damage,and pose a significant human–wildlife conflict risk.Despite growing interest in wild pig research,basic life history information is often lacking throughout their introduced range and particularly in tropical environments.Similar to other large terrestrial mammals,pigs possess the ability to shift their range based on local climatic conditions or resource availability,further complicating management decisions.The objectives of this study were to(i)model the distribution and abundance of wild pigs across two seasons within a single calendar year;(ii)determine the most important environmental variables driving changes in pig distribution and abundance;and(iii)highlight key differences between seasonal models and their potential management implications.These study objectives were achieved using zero-inflated models constructed from abundance data obtained from extensive field surveys and remotely sensed environmental variables.Results:Our models demonstrate a considerable change in distribution and abundance of wild pigs throughout a single calendar year.Rainfall and vegetation height were among the most influential variables for pig distribution during the spring,and distance to adjacent forest and vegetation density were among the most significant for the fall.Further,our seasonal models show that areas of high conservation value may be more vulnerable to threats from wild pigs at certain times throughout the year,which was not captured by more traditional modeling approaches using aggregated data.Conclusions:Our results suggest that(i)wild pigs can considerably shift their range throughout the calendar year,even in tropical environments;(ii)pigs prefer dense forested areas in the presence of either hunting pressure or an abundance of frugivorous plants,but may shift to adjacent areas in the absence of either of these conditions;and(iii)seasonal models provide valuable biological information th

关键词： Ecology Spatial Temporal species distribution modeling Wild boar Sus scrofa Feral pigs

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Potential distribution of Seagrass Meadows Based on the MaxEnt Model in Chinese Coastal Waters

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2022年第5期21卷 1351-1361页

作者： WANG Ming WANG Yong LIU Guangliang CHEN Yuhu YU Naijing Center for High Performance Computing and System Simulation Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266200China Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Networks Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences)Jinan 250101China

Seagrass meadows are generally diverse in China and have become important ecosystem with essential functions.However,the seagrass distribution across the seawaters of China has not been evaluated,and the magnitude and direction of changes in seagrass meadows remain unclear.This study aimed to provide a nationwide seagrass distribution map and explore the dynamic changes in seagrass population under global climate change.Simulation studies were performed using the modeling software MaxEnt with 58961 occurrence records and 27 marine environmental variables to predict the potential distribution of seagrasses and calculate the area.Seven environmental variables were excluded from the modeling processes based on a correlation analysis to ensure predicted suitability.The predicted area was 790.09 km^(2),which is much larger than the known seagrass distribution in China(87.65 km^(2)).By 2100,the suitable habitat of seagrass will shift northwest and increase to 923.62 km2.Models of the sum of the individual family under-pre-dicted the national distribution of seagrasses and consistently showed a downward trend in the future.Out of all environmental vari-ables,physical parameters(e.g.,depth,land distance,and sea surface temperature)contributed the most in predicting seagrass distri-butions,and nutrients(e.g.,nitrate,phosphate)ranked among the key influential predictors for habitat suitability in our study area.This study is the first effort to fill a gap in understanding the distribution of seagrasses in China.Further studies using modeling and biological/ecological approaches are warranted.

关键词： seagrass meadows species distribution modeling global climate change Chinese coastal waters

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Assessing the risk of spread of Zika virus under current and future climate scenarios

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Biosafety and Health 2022年第3期4卷 193-204页

作者： Ye Xu Jingni Zhou Tong Liu Peiwen Liu Yang Wu Zetian Lai Jinbao Gu Xiaoguang Chen Department of Pathogen Biology Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research of Guangdong ProvinceSchool of Public HealthSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhou 510515China Institute of Tropical Medicine School of Public HealthSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhou 510515China

Zika virus(ZIKV)may cause severe microcephaly in newborn babies and Guillain‐Barrésyndrome in some adults.In recent decades,its range has expanded in 86 countries.There are two ecologically and evolutionarily district cycles:urban cycle and sylvatic cycle.This work aimed to estimate the urban and sylvatic cycle areas of ZIKV throughout the world.The occurrence records of vectors,non‐human primate hosts,and ZIKV were collected.We chose historical climate data,predicted vectors distribution,human population density,and elevation data as the variables to fit the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt).Current risk area and future prediction were performed with global climate models(GCMs)and shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).Predicting the ZIKV risk area would help tailor related control strategies.The results indicated that 16.6%of the world’s landmass(except Antarctica)is a risk area in the urban cycle.Approximately 6.22 billion people(78.69%of the global population)live in the risk area,with the vast majority in South Asia,tropical Africa,South America,North America,and countries around the Mediterranean Sea.Future climate change decreases the risk area of ZIKV.This study also suggested that the sylvatic cycle happened between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.The overlap region of the urban and sylvatic cycles could be hotpots that ZIKV spill from the sylvatic to the urban cycle.It is indicated that long‐term passenger screening,mosquito surveillance,and control are necessary.

关键词： Zika virus Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus species distribution modeling MaxEnt Urban cycle Sylvatic cycle

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Evolutionary history of mountain voles of the subgenus Aschizomys (Cricetidae, Rodentia), inferred from mitochondrial and nuclear markers

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Integrative Zoology 2020年第3期15卷 187-201页

作者： Semen Yu.BODROV Vera K.VASILJEVA Innokentiy M.OKHLOPKOV Nikolai V.MAMAYEV Evgeniy S.ZAKHAROV Alexey Yu OLEINIKOV Evgeniy A.GENELT-YANOVSKIY Natalia I.ABRAMSON Zoological Institute Russian Academy of SciencesSaint PetersburgRussia Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone YakutskSakha Republic(Yakutia)Russia Institute of Water and Ecological Problems KhabarovskRussia Saint-Petersburg Scientific Center RAS Saint PetersburgRussia

In this study,we present an assessment of the evolutionary history and phylogenetic relationships of Asian mountain voles of the subgenus Aschizomys,genus Alticola,based on extensive sampling and phylogenetic analyses of data from mitochondrial and nuclear markers.Two species of this subgenus are widespread in the mountain areas of north-eastern Asia.However,both their distribution and taxonomic borders remained questionable for more than 100 years.Our study showed discordance in the phylogenetic patterns between nuclear and mtDNA markers.We found that mtDNA in A.lemminus is paraphyletic relative to A.macrotis,but nuclear markers demonstrated reciprocal monophyly.According to species distribution modeling,ranges of A.macrotis and A.lemminus experienced a secondary contact during the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 22 kyr BP),and thus a hybridization event seems plausible during that period.species tree analyses recovered a sister group relationship between the two species of the Aschizomys subgenus,with an estimated divergence date of around 0.8 Ma.Our results provided good support for currently recognized subspecies within both A.macrotis and A.lemminus based on mitochondrial and nuclear datasets.A new,yet undescribed form,supposedly of a subspecific status within A.lemminus,was found in the Bureinskiy Range in the Khabarovsk area.This finding expands the current species distribution range further to the southeast.

关键词： Asian mountain voles Aschizomys phylogeny taxonomy species tree species distribution modeling

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Determining bioclimatic space of Himalayan alder for agroforestry systems in Nepal

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Plant Diversity 2018年第1期40卷 1-18页

作者： Santosh Kumar Rana Hum Kala Rana Krishna Kumar Shrestha Suresh Sujakhu Sailesh Ranjitkar Key Laboratory{or Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia Kunming Institute of BotanyKunming 650201China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Systematics and Biodiversity Unit Central Department of BotanyTribhuvan UniversityKirtipurKathmanduNepal jade Consult Private Limited KabilmargThapathaliKathmanduPOB 746Nepal World Agroforestry Centre East and Central Asia 132 Lanhei RdHeilongtanKunmingChina

Himalayan alder species are proven to be very useful in traditional as well as contemporary agroforestry practice. These nitrogen-fixing trees are also useful in the land restoration. Therefore, understanding the distribution of Himalayan alder and the potential zone for plantation is meaningful in the agroforestry sector. Suitable climatic zones of Alnus spp. were modelled in Max Ent software using a subset of least correlated bioclimatic variables for current conditions(1950 -2000), topographic variables(DEM derived) and Landuse Landcover(LULC) data. We generated several models and selected the best model against random models using ANOVA and t-test. The environmental variables that best explained the current distribution of the species were identified and used to project into the future. For future projections, ensemble scenarios of climate change projection derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models(ESM) were used. Our model revealed that the most favorable conditions for Alnus nepalensis are in central Nepal in the moist north-west facing slope, whereas for Alnus nitida they are in western Nepal.The major climatic factor that contributes to Alnus species distribution in Nepal appears to be precipitation during the warmest quarter for A. nepalensis and precipitation during the driest quarter for A. nitida. Future projections revealed changes in the probability distribution of these species, as well as where they need conservation and where they can be planted. Also, our model predicts that the distribution of Alnus spp. in hilly regions will remain unchanged, and therefore may represent sites that can be used to revitalize traditional agroforestry systems and extract source material for land restoration.

关键词： Alder Agroforestry species distribution modeling Climate change MaxEnt

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An evaluation of central Iran’s protected areas under different climate change scenarios (A Case on Markazi and Hamedan provinces)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第1期17卷 68-82页

作者： Peyman KARAMI Sahar REZAEI Shabnam SHADLOO Morteza NADERI Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesMalay er UniversityMalayer65719-95863HamedanIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment SciencesUniversity of GuilanSowmehsara419961-3778GuilanIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Agriculture and Natural SciencesArak UniversityArak 38156-8-8349Iran

Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using Max Ent modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future(under the climatic scenarios for minimum(RCP2.6) and maximum(RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic(TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6;and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1(RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution(Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2(RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan pr

关键词： Climatic Scenarios species distribution modeling Protected area Niche modeling Wild Sheep

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Multi-scale habitat selection and impacts of climate change on the distribution of four sympatric meso-carnivores using random forest algorithm

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Ecological Processes 2020年第1期9卷 709-725页

作者： Tahir Ali Rather Sharad Kumar Jamal Ahmad Khan Department of Wildlife Sciences Aligarh Muslim UniversityAligarhUttar Pradesh 202002India The Corbett Foundation 81-88Atlanta BuildingNariman PointMumbai 400021India

Background:The habitat resources are structured across different spatial scales in the environment,and thus animals perceive and select habitat resources at different spatial scales.Failure to adopt the scale-dependent framework in species habitat relationships may lead to biased inferences.Multi-scale species distribution models(SDMs)can thus improve the predictive ability as compared to single-scale approaches.This study outlines the importance of multi-scale modeling in assessing the species habitat relationships and may provide a methodological framework using a robust algorithm to model and predict habitat suitability maps(HSMs)for similar multi-species and multi-scale studies.Results:We used a supervised machine learning algorithm,random forest(RF),to assess the habitat relationships of Asiatic wildcat(Felis lybica ornata),jungle cat(Felis chaus),Indian fox(Vulpes bengalensis),and golden-jackal(Canis aureus)at ten spatial scales(500-5000 m)in human-dominated landscapes.We calculated out-of-bag(OOB)error rates of each predictor variable across ten scales to select the most influential spatial scale variables.The scale optimization(OOB rates)indicated that model performance was associated with variables at multiple spatial scales.The species occurrence tended to be related strongest to predictor variables at broader scales(5000 m).Multivariate RF models indicated landscape composition to be strong predictors of the Asiatic wildcat,jungle cat,and Indian fox occurrences.At the same time,topographic and climatic variables were the most important predictors determining the golden jackal distribution.Our models predicted range expansion in all four species under future climatic scenarios.Conclusions:Our results highlight the importance of using multiscale distribution models when predicting the distribution and species habitat relationships.The wide adaptability of meso-carnivores allows them to persist in human-dominated regions and may even thrive in disturbed habitats.These meso-carnivores are among the few spe

关键词： Multiple-scale Multi-species Sympatric carnivores species distribution modeling Bandhavgarh Climate change

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Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

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Journal of Arid Land 2020年第6期12卷 1031-1045页

作者： Farzaneh KHAJOEI NASAB Ahmadreza MEHRABIAN Hossein MOSTAFAVI Department of Plant Sciences and Biotechnology Faculty of Life Sciences and BiotechnologyShahid Beheshti UniversityTehran ***Iran Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystems Management Environmental Sciences Research InstituteShahid Beheshti UniversityTehran ***Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species.In this study,the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma(including O.asperrima,O.bisotunensis,O.kotschyi,O.platyphylla,and O.straussii)was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios:RCP2.6(RCP,representative concentration pathway;optimistic scenario)and RCP8.5(pessimistic scenario)for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran.Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species.Seven environmental variables including aspect,depth of soil,silt content,slope,annual precipitation,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study.The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species(i.e.,the area under the curve(AUC)>0.800).According to the models generated by MaxEnt,the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions.The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,respectively)of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions.Among all species,O.bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080.Finally,the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes.The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.

关键词： climate change endemic plant MaxEnt species distribution modeling RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Iran

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Genetic structure and historical demography of Malus sieversii in the Yili Valley and the western mountains of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2015年第2期7卷 264-271页

作者： Hong Xiang ZHANG Ming Li ZHANG Li Na WANG Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresource in Arid Land Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Central China Normal University

Malus sieversii, a wild progenitor of domesticated apple, is distributed in western Xinjiang of China, eastern part of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia. To well understand the genetic structure and the his- torical demography of this important germplasm resource, we sampled 15 populations with 110 individuals of Malus sieversii from the Yili Valley and the western mountains of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, and sequenced two nrDNA fragments for these 110 individuals. Meanwhile, we modeled and compared species distributions under the current and the Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The results showed that populations of M. sieversfi from Xinjiang had low levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation. During the LGM period, populations of M. sieversfi had lost their northern distributions in the western mountains of the Junggar Basin. M. sieversfi has ex- perienced a demographic expansion from the south of the Yili Valley to the north of the western mountains of the Junggar Basin during the warm interglacial epochs. Due to the high sensibility of M. sieversii to disturbance, we proposed more attention should be paid to the M. sieversfi populations in the western mountains of the Junggar Basin.

关键词： Malus sieversii phylogeography LEAFY gene intron 1 species distribution modeling genetic diversity

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