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Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in southeastern china

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第3期4卷 173-180页

作者： LIU Ying FAN Ke WANG Hui-Jun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Scienees Beijing 100049 China

A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern china was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed *** was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern china between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42(above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm *** averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52 to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.27 to 0.22 for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.

关键词： statistical downscaling DEMETER south-eastern china summer precipitation anomaly

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