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Evaluating the Capabilities of soil enthalpy, soil Moisture and soil Temperature in Predicting Seasonal Precipitation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第4期35卷 445-456页

作者： Changyu ZHAO Haishan CHEN Shanlei SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)

soil enthalpy （H） contains the combined effects of both soil moisture （w） and soil temperature （T） in the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, the sensitivities of H to w and T are investigated using the multi-linear regression method. Results indicate that T generally makes positive contributions to H, while w exhibits different （positive or negative） impacts due to soil ice effects. For example, w negatively contributes to H if soil contains more ice; however, after soil ice melts, w exerts positive contributions. In particular, due to lower w interannual variabilities in the deep soil layer （i.e., the fifth layer）, H is more sensitive to T than to w. Moreover, to compare the potential capabilities of H, w and T in precipitation （P） prediction, the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin （HHB） and Southeast China （SEC）, with similar sensitivities of H to w and T, are selected. Analyses show that, despite similar spatial distributions of H-P and T-P correlation coefficients, the former values are always higher than the latter ones. Furthermore, H provides the most effective signals for P prediction over HHB and SEC, i.e., a significant leading correlation between May H and early summer （June） P. In summary, H, which integrates the effects of T and w as an independent variable, has greater capabilities in monitoring land surface heating and improving seasonal P prediction relative to individual land surface factors （e.g., T and w）.

关键词： seasonal precipitation prediction land surface process soil enthalpy soil moisture soil temperature

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