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作者： Shu JIANG Cunlei ZHU Xiaoming ZHAO China Three Gorges Corporation

The Jinpingzi landslide located 1 km downstream of the Wudongde hydropower station in Jinsha River,is of great significance to the dam safety because its reactivated zone 2 has been moving slowly for at least one *** order to understand its long-term movement mechanism and the critical condition for accelerated creep failure,ring shear tests with different shearing rates,different clay particles content and different stress conditions were carried out for the soil samples collected near the sliding *** show that the movement mechanism lies in the transformation from negative shear rate effect to positive effect of residual strength of the slip zone soil from the first failure to the reactivated *** movement of the landslide is a viscous rheological phenomenon of the slip zone *** creeping failure might happen only when the landslide overcome a fast peak strength in the residual state,otherwise it would only keep in the steady creeping state due to the viscous resisting *** movement of the landslide during the rainy season might be due to the slight increase of the unit weight of the sliding masses by rainfall,which accelerates the landslide to a certain degree,but not to the creeping failure yet.

关键词： slow-moving landslide ring shear test residual strength shearing rate effect viscous rheology

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Towards hydrometeorological thresholds of reservoir-induced landslide from subsurface strain observations

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2024年第6期67卷 1907-1922页

作者： YE Xiao ZHU HongHu WANG Jia ZHENG WanJi ZHANG Wei SCHENATO Luca PASUTO Alessandro CATANI Filippo School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Nanjing UniversityNanjing210023China Department of Geosciences University of PadovaPadova35131Italy School of Geosciences and Info-Physics Central South UniversityChangsha410083China Department of Information Engineering University of PadovaPadova35131Italy National Research Council-Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection(CNR-IRPI) Padova35127Italy

Synergistic multi-factor early warning of large-scale landslides is a crucial component of geohazard prevention and mitigation efforts in reservoir *** forecasting and early warning based on surface displacements have been widely ***,the lack of direct subsurface real-time observations limits our ability to predict critical hydrometeorological conditions that trigger landslide *** this paper,we leverage subsurface strain data measured by high-resolution fiber optic sensing nerves that were installed in a giant reservoir landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)region,China,spanning a whole hydrologic year since February *** spatiotemporal strain profile has preliminarily identified the slip zones and potential drivers,indicating that high-intensity short-duration rainstorms controlled the landslide kinematics from an observation *** the time lag effect,we reexamined and quantified potential controls of accelerated movements using a data-driven approach,which reveals immediate response of landslide deformation to extreme rainfall with a zero-day *** identify critical hydrometeorological rules in accelerated movements,accounting for the dual effect of rainfall and reservoir water level variations,we thus construct a landslide prediction model that relies upon the boosting decision tree(BDT)algorithm using a dataset comprising daily rainfall,rainfall intensity,reservoir water level,water level fluctuations,and slip zone strain time *** results indicate that landslide acceleration is most likely to occur under the conditions of mid-low water levels(i.e.,57.9 mm and rainfall intensity>24.4 mm/h).Moreover,this prediction model allows us to update hydrometeorological thresholds by incorporating the latest monitoring *** on the shoulder of this landslide case,our study informs a practical and reliable path

关键词： slow-moving landslide fiber-optic monitoring subsurface strain hydrometeorological threshold extreme weather

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