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A new mixed agent-based network and compartmental simulation framework for joint modeling of related infectious diseases-application to sexually transmitted infections

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 84-100页

作者： Chaitra Gopalappa Hari Balasubramanian Peter J.Haas University of Massachusetts Amherst 160 Governors DriveAmherstMA01003USA

Background:A model that jointly simulates infectious diseases with common modes of transmission can serve as a decision-analytic tool to identify optimal intervention combinations for overall disease prevention.In the United States,sexually transmitted infections(STIs)are a huge economic burden,with a large fraction of the burden attributed to HIV.Data also show interactions between HIV and other sexually transmitted infections(STIs),such as higher risk of acquisition and progression of co-infections among persons with HIV compared to persons without.However,given the wide range in prevalence and incidence burdens of STIs,current compartmental or agent-based network simulation methods alone are insufficient or computationally burdensome for joint disease modeling.Further,causal factors for higher risk of coinfection could be both behavioral(i.e.,compounding effects of individual behaviors,network structures,and care behaviors)and biological(i.e.,presence of one disease can biologically increase the risk of another).However,the data on the fraction attributed to each are limited.Methods:We present a new mixed agent-based compartmental(MAC)framework for jointly modeling STIs.It uses a combination of a new agent-based evolving network modeling(ABENM)technique for lower-prevalence diseases and compartmental modeling for higher-prevalence diseases.As a demonstration,we applied MAC to simulate lower-prevalence HIV in the United States and a higher-prevalence hypothetical Disease 2,using a range of transmission and progression rates to generate burdens replicative of the wide range of STIs.We simulated sexual transmissions among heterosexual males,heterosexual females,and men who have sex with men(men only and men and women).Setting the biological risk of co-infection to zero,we conducted numerical analyses to evaluate the influence of behavioral factors alone on disease dynamics.Results:The contribution of behavioral factors to risk of coinfection was sensitive to disease burden,care access,and population heterogeneity

关键词： Joint-modeling diseases Multi-disease modeling simulation modeling HIV and STIs Diseases and social determinants SDOH

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modeling of Large-Scale Hydrogen Storage System Considering Capacity Attenuation and Analysis of Its Efficiency Characteristics

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Energy Engineering 2024年第2期121卷 291-313页

作者： Junhui Li Haotian Zhang Cuiping Li Xingxu Zhu Ruitong Liu Fangwei Duan Yongming Peng Key Laboratory of Modern Power System simulation and Control&Renewable Energy Technology Ministry of Education(Northeast Electric Power University)Jilin132012China Ministry of Science and Technology Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.Ltd.Shenyang110006China Northeast Electric Power Dispatching Control Center Northeast Branch of State Grid Corporation of ChinaShenyang110180China

In the existing power system with a large-scale hydrogen storage system,there are problems such as low efficiency of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion and single modeling of the hydrogen storage system.In order to improve the hydrogen utilization rate of hydrogen storage system in the process of participating in the power grid operation,and speed up the process of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion.This article provides a detailed introduction to the mathematical and electrical models of various components of the hydrogen storage unit,and also establishes a charging and discharging efficiency model that considers the temperature and internal gas partial pressure of the hydrogen storage unit.These models are of great significance for studying and optimizing gas storage technology.Through these models,the performance of gas storage units can be better understood and improved.These studies are very helpful for improving energy storage efficiency and sustainable development.The factors affecting the charge-discharge efficiency of hydrogen storage units are analyzed.By integrating the models of each unit and considering the capacity degradation of the hydrogen storage system,we can construct an efficiency model for a large hydrogen storage system and power conversion system.In addition,the simulation models of the hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system were established in MATLAB/Simulink.The accuracy and effectiveness of the simulation model were proved by comparing the output voltage variation curve of the simulation with the polarization curve of the typical hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system.The results show that the charge-discharge efficiency of the hydrogen storage unit increases with the increase of operating temperature,and H2 and O2 partial voltage have little influence on the charge-discharge efficiency.In the process of power conversion system converter rectification operation,its efficiency decreases with the increase of temperature,while in the proc

关键词： Hydrogen storage system simulation modeling electrolyzer fuel cell capacity loss

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simulation modeling on Emergency Evacuation in High-Speed Railway Stations in China

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Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2016年第6期33卷 836-842页

作者：马清源王晨陆键 School of Naval Architecture Ocean and Civil EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong University Intelligent Transportation System Research Center Southeast University School of Transportation Engineering Tongji University

A simulation study on occupant evacuation in high-speed railway stations(HSRSs) was presented in China.Pathfinder was employed as the simulation platform and a typical HSRS in a medium-sized city in China was selected for model development.The model was carefully calibrated and validated by comparing simulation results with field data.Evacuation efficiency could be improved with the increased door width while such effect decreased when the door width reached a marginal value.And the marginal value varied under different occupant densities.An exponential function between evacuation time and occupant density was fitted,indicating that occupant density significantly affected evacuation efficiency.A set of different evacuation strategies were compared,in terms of their evacuation performances.It was found that a balanced door usage would result in more efficient evacuations in HSRSs.Thus occupant flows were suggested to be managed considering door capacity.To avoid potential safety issues caused by such strategy(e.g.,more occupants could be evacuated from a smaller area designed with higher door capacity),occupants needed to enhance their awareness of following evacuation guidance instead of panic escape in emergencies.Moreover,such safety issues could also be avoided during the design phase that the evacuation capacity was designed to be proportional to the room capacity for each floor.The results of this study provide valuable information for HSRS design and flow management in China.

关键词： simulation modeling emergency evacuation high-speed railway stations(HSRSs) evacuation time

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Prediction of rice productivity in Kandhamal district of Orissa using simulation modeling

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International Journal of modeling, simulation, and Scientific Computing 2014年第4期5卷 170-183页

作者： Banshidhar Panda Milu Acharya Dwitikrishna Panigrahi Ajaya Binay Institute of Technology CuttackIndia Institute of Technical Education and Research Siksha‘O’Anusandhan University BhubaneswarIndia College of Agricultural Engineering and Post Harvest Technology Central Agricultural University RanipoolSikkimIndia

simulation technique has been employed to predict rice yield of Kandhamal plateaus in Orissa(India)using the data of previous years.Preliminary simulation model has been developed The test for uniformity and independence has been conducted using Kolmogrov–smironov test and auto-correlation test,respectively.The result obtained has been subjected to testing of hypothesis by using two sided test.Data for five years(1995 to 2000)are used for model validation and the sample size is increased to 12 years i.e.,from 1995 to 2007 for prediction up to 2012.Sensitivity analysis is conducted by changing the parameters within feasible limits to find out the effect on the model.

关键词： simulation modeling pilot experiment empirical distribution prediction interval regression line

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simulation modeling and Analysis of Operator-Machine Ratio

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Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(English Edition) 2007年第4期15卷 301-305页

作者：马东彦 College of Mechanical Engineering Ningxia University

Based on a simulation model of a semiconductor manufacturer, operator-machine ratio （OMR） analysis is made using work study and time study. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that labor utilization decreases with the increase of lot size. Meanwhile, it is able to identify that the OMR for this company should be improved from 1 ： 3 to 1 ： 5. An application result shows that the proposed model can effectively improve the OMR by 33%.

关键词： Operator-machine ratio Work study Time study Sensitivity analysis simulation modeling

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simulation modeling for Heave Compensation of Heavy-duty Semi-active Heave Compensation System

Simulation Modeling for Heave Compensation of Heavy-duty Sem...

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第二十九届中国控制会议

作者： XIAO Tibing Dept.of Mechanical&Electronic Eng.Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,P.R.China

Heavy-duty Semi-active Heave Compensation System（HSAHCS）is one of necessary device to secure the deep-ocean production in bad ocean condition.In this paper,the simulation model for heave compensation of HSAHCS is built by using the power bond graph theory and the simulation software simulink.The simulation results prove that the simulation model built in this paper is correct.

关键词： Deep-Ocean Production HSAHCS simulation modeling

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Influencing factor analysis of interception probability and classification-regression neural network based estimation

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2023年第4期34卷 992-1006页

作者： NAN Yi YI Guoxing HU Lei WANG Changhong TU Zhenbiao Department of Control Science and Engineering Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China Beijing Electro-mechanical Engineering Institute Beijing 100074China

The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation,while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled.Existing calculation methods have very limited analysis of the influence mechanism of influencing factors,and none of them has analyzed the influence of the guidance law.This paper considers the influencing factors of both the interceptor and the target more comprehensively.Interceptor parameters include speed,guidance law,guidance error,fuze error,and fragment killing ability,while target performance includes speed,maneuverability,and vulnerability.In this paper,an interception model is established,Monte Carlo simulation is carried out,and the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed based on the model and simulation results.Finally,this paper proposes a classification-regression neural network to quickly estimate the interception probability based on the value of influencing factors.The proposed method reduces the interference of invalid interception data to valid data,so its prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of pure regression neural networks.

关键词： interception probability simulation modeling analysis of influencing factors probability estimation neural networks

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A Framework for e-Voting System Based on Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第7期72卷 417-440页

作者： Shahid Hussain Danwar Javed Ahmed Mahar Aneela Kiran Institute of Computer Science Shah Abdul Latif UniversityKhairpur66020SindhPakistan

Election allows the voter of a country to select the most suitable group of candidates to run the government.Election in Pakistan is simply paper-based method but some certain political and socio-economic issues turn that simple process in complicated and disputes once.Solutions of such problems are consisting of many methods including the e-voting system.The e-voting system facilitates the voters to cast their votes by electronic means with very easy and convenient way.This also allows maintaining the security and secrecy of the voter along with election process.Electronic voting reduces the human-involvement throughout the process from start to the end.Such system is not established yet in Pakistan.Hence,every election is disputed always.In this paper we proposed the framework of an e-voting system and simulation with the use of blockchain ledger technology.The proposed framework owns the capacity to deal with ballots in Pakistan.The novelty of the framework is that the e-voting system is linked to National Database and Registration Authority(NADRA)database which assures voter’s validation.The fundamental requirements were kept in consideration during the performance evaluation of the system.The results are processed and depicted specially with reference to the number of voters and voting stations,real time of vote casting,network bandwidth and controlling principles.The results support the decision makers and guide them in the foundation and customization of an e-voting system in Pakistan.

关键词： simulation modeling e-voting system blockchain technology distributed ledger

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A New Method with High Confidence for Validation of Computer simulation Models of Flight Systems

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 1993年第4期4卷 43-52页

作者： Zhou XianminShanghai Research & Development Centre, 412 Guil in Road, Shanghai 200233, P.R.China Shanghai Research & Development Centre 412 Guil in Road Shanghai 200233 P.R. China

Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.

关键词： Model validation Model credibility simulation modeling System simulation.

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On the Possibilities of using Some Modern Three-dimensional modeling Means in Forensic Examination

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Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine 2022年第1期8卷 17-23页

作者： Dmitry S Afonin Iryna V Hora Valerii A Kolesnyk Inna I Popovych Iryna V Kuchynska Department of Administrative Activity of Police Odesa State University of Internal AffairsOdesa Scientific Center National Academy of the Security Service of Ukraine Department of Criminal Law and Procedure Uzhhorod National UniversityUzhhorod Center for Forensic and Special Examinations The Ukrainian Scientific and Research Institute of Special Equipment and Forensic Expertise of the Security Service of UlaaineKyivUkraine

Background:The paper examines the state and prospects of using 3D modeling in solving identification,classification,diagnostic and situational tasks of forensic examination.Aims and Objectives:The aim of this study is to analyze the world expert practice of using scientific and technical means of three-dimensional modeling in solving problems of forensic examination,using the example of our country,the leading countries of Europe,as well as the United States.Materials and Methods:The empirical basis of the study is the results of the systematization of scientific and technical means for 3D modeling in solving identification,classification,diagnostic and situational problems of forensic examinations used in the expert practice of Ukraine,the United Kingdom,France,Germany,and the USA.Results:The systematization of modem scientific and technical means for 3D modeling,used in solving identification,classification,diagnostic and situational tasks of forensic examination,has been carried out.We analyzed and identified 3D modeling software that most fully meets the requirements of effective forensic expert activities.The features of the use of effective 3D modeling mean for solving identification,classification,diagnostic and situational tasks of forensic examination,namely the software systems"ToolScan"and"TrasoScan",and the SketchUp program have been disclosed.Conclusion:The introduction of the SketchUp 8 software into forensic expert activities will increase the effectiveness of the modeling method in forensic examinations,which,in turn,will have an impact on the effectiveness of expert conclusions,increase their evidentiary value and,as a result,contribute to the entire process of a criminal investigation.

关键词： Classification tasks diagnostic tasks forensic practice identification tasks photogrammetric modeling simulation modeling three-dimensional model

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