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A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term

Chinese Geographical Science 2022年第1期32卷 64-78页

作者： SUN Dongqi LU Jiayi Key Laboratoty of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Taking the system philosophy of human-earth relationship as the theoretical axis,and under the three-dimensional goals of economic growth,social development,and protection of the ecological environment,this paper constructs the supporting system of China’s economic *** this basis,guided by the basic principles of system theory and system dynamics,and combined with the theories of other related disciplines,we constructed an economic geography-system dynamics(EG-SD)integrated forecasting model to simulate and quantitatively forecast China’s economic growth in the medium and long ***’s economic growth will be affected by quantifiable and unquantifiable *** the main unquantifiable factors are not taken into account in the simulation and prediction of China’s economic growth in the medium and long term,the accuracy and objectivity of the prediction results will be ***,based on situation analysis(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats,SWOT),we combined scenario analysis with the Delphi method,and established a qualitative prediction simulation model(referred to as the S-D compound prediction model)to make up for the shortcomings associated with quantitative simulation ***-SD and S-D are organically combined to construct a simulation and prediction paradigm of China’s economic growth in the medium and long *** paradigm not only realizes the integration of various forecasting methods and the combination of qualitative and quantitative measures,but also realizes the organic combination of unquantifiable and quantifiable elements by innovatively introducing fuzzy simulation of system dynamics,which renders the simulation and prediction results more objective and accurate.

关键词： economic growth simulation and prediction prediction model fuzzy simulation paradigm

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The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area, China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2016年第4期8卷 350-358页

作者： HaiJun Wang XiangDong Kong Bo Zhang Engineering & Technical College of Chengdu University of Technology Leshan Sichuan 614007 China The College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal University Lanzhou Gansu 730070 China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that：（1） Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km2 from 2000 to 2014. （2） For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution （weight） of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method. （3） In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years （2015-2042）, farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.

关键词： Qilian mountain area LUCC Logistic-CA-Markov model simulation and prediction

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