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Exploring spatial non-stationarity of near-miss ship collisions from AIS data under the influence of sea fog using geographically weighted regression:A case study in the Bohai sea,China

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第12期42卷 77-89页

作者： Yongtian Shen Zhe Zeng Dan Liu Pei Du China University of Petroleum Qingdao 266580China Anhui Provincial Geomatic Center Hefei 230031China Nanjing Normal University School of Geography Nanjing 210023China

sea fog is a disastrous weather phenomenon,posing a risk to the safety of maritime transportation.Dense sea fogs reduce visibility at sea and have frequently caused ship collisions.This study used a geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to explore the spatial non-stationarity of near-miss collision risk,as detected by a vessel conflict ranking operator(VCRO)model from automatic identification system(AIS)data under the influence of sea fog in the Bohai sea.sea fog was identified by a machine learning method that was derived from Himawari-8 satellite data.The spatial distributions of near-miss collision risk,sea fog,and the parameters of GWR were mapped.The results showed that sea fog and near-miss collision risk have specific spatial distribution patterns in the Bohai sea,in which near-miss collision risk in the fog season is significantly higher than that outside the fog season,especially in the northeast(the sea area near Yingkou Port and Bayuquan Port)and the southeast(the sea area near Yantai Port).GWR outputs further indicated a significant correlation between near-miss collision risk and sea fog in fog season,with higher R-squared(0.890 in fog season,2018),than outside the fog season(0.723 in non-fog season,2018).GWR results revealed spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between-near miss collision risk and sea fog and that the significance of these relationships varied locally.Dividing the specific navigation area made it possible to verify that sea fog has a positive impact on near-miss collision risk.

关键词： near-miss sea fog geographically weighted regression automatic identification system(AIS)

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A New Algorithm for sea fog／Stratus Detection Using GMS-5 IR Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2003年第6期20卷 899-913页

作者： Myoung-HwanAHN Eun-HaSOHN Byong-JunHWANG RemoteSensingResearchLaboratory MeteorologicalResearchInstituteKoreanMeteorologicalAdministrationSeoul156-720Korea

A new algorithm for the detection of fog/stratus over the ocean from the GMS-5 infrared (IR) channel data is presented. The new algorithm uses a clear-sky radiance composite map (CSCM) to compare the hourly observations of the IR radiance. The feasibility of the simple comparison is justified by the theoretical simulations of the fog effect on the measured radiance using a radiative transfer model. The simulation results show that the presence of fog can be detected provided the visibility is worse than 1 km and the background clear-sky radiances are accurate enough with known uncertainties. For the current study, an accurate CSCM is constructed using a modified spatial and temporal coherence method, which takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GMS-5 observations. The new algorithm is applied for the period of 10–12 May 1999, when heavy sea fog formed near the southwest coast of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of the fog/stratus index, defined as the difference between the measured and clear-sky brightness temperature, from the new algorithm to the results from other methods, such as the dual channel difference of NOAA/AVHRR and the earth albedo method, show a good agreement. The fog/stratus index also compares favorably with the ground observations of visibility and relative humidity. The general characteristics of the fog/stratus index and visibility are relatively well matched, although the relationship among the absolute values, the fog/stratus index, visibility, and relative humidity, varies with time. This variation is thought to be due to the variation of the atmospheric conditions and the characteristics of fog/stratus, which affect the derived fog/stratus index.

关键词： sea fog GMS-5

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Characteristics of the Boundary Layer Structure of sea fog on the Coast of Southern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第6期28卷 1377-1389页

作者：黄辉军刘洪年蒋维楣黄健毛伟康 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Key Open Laboratory for Tropical Monsoon and Joint Open Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyChina Meteorological Administration

Using boundary layer data with regard to sea fog observed at the Science Experiment Base for Marine Meteorology at Bohe,Guangdong Province,the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the characteristics of the tops of the fog and the clouds were analyzed.In addition,the effects of advection,radiation,and turbulence during sea fog were also investigated.According to the stability definition of saturated,wet air,the gradient of the potential pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to zero was defined as the thermal turbulence interface.There is evidence to suggest that two layers of turbulence exist in sea fog.Thermal turbulence produced by long-wave radiation is prevalent above the thermal turbulence interface,whereas mechanical turbulence aroused by wind shear is predominant below the interface.The height of the thermal turbulence interface was observed between 180 m and 380 m.Three important factors are closely related to the development of the top of the sea fog：（1） the horizontal advection of the water vapor,（2） the long-wave radiation of the fog top,and（3） the movement of the vertical turbulence.Formation,development,and dissipation are the three possible phases of the evolution of the boundary-layer structure during the sea fog season.In addition,the thermal turbulence interface is the most significant turbulence interface during the formation and development periods;it is maintained after sea fog rises into the stratus layer.

关键词： coast of Southern China sea fog boundary layer structure advection radiation turbulence

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A Heavy sea fog Event over the Yellow sea in March 2005: Analysis and Numerical Modeling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第1期24卷 65-81页

作者：高山红林行沈飙傅刚 Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266003 Qingdao Meteorology Observatory Qingdao 266003

In this paper, a heavy sea fog episode that occurred over the Yellow sea on 9 March 2005 is investigated. The sea fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundred kilometers at its mature stage, reduced visibility along the Shandong Peninsula coast to 100 m or much less at some sites. Satellite images, surface observations and soundings at islands and coasts, and analyses from the Japan Meteorology Agency （JMA） axe used to describe and analyze this event. The analysis indicates that this sea fog can be categorized as advection cooling fog. The main features of this sea fog including fog area and its movement axe reasonably reproduced by the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5）. Model results suggest that the formation and evolution of this event can be outlined as：（1） southerly warm/moist advection of low-level air resulted in a strong sea-surface-based inversion with a thickness of about 600 m; （2） when the inversion moved from the warmer East sea to the colder Yellow sea, a thermal internal boundary layer （TIBL） gradually formed at the base of the inversion while the sea fog grew in response to cooling and moistening by turbulence mixing; （3） the sea fog developed as the TIBL moved northward and （4） strong northerly cold and dry wind destroyed the TIBL and dissipated the sea fog. The principal findings of this study axe that sea fog forms in response to relatively persistent southerly waxm/moist wind and a cold sea surface, and that turbulence mixing by wind shear is the primary mechanism for the cooling and moistening the marine layer. In addition, the study of sensitivity experiments indicates that deterministic numerical modeling offers a promising approach to the prediction of sea fog over the Yellow sea but it may be more efficient to consider ensemble numerical modeling because of the extreme sensitivity to model input.

关键词： sea fog Yellow sea numerical modeling MM5 sensitivity experiments

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A New Observation Operator for the Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Relative Humidity:Methodology and Experiments with Three sea fog Cases over the Yellow sea

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第6期35卷 1104-1124页

作者： Yue YANG Yongming WANG Shanhong GAO Xiayu YUAN Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography College of Oceanic and Atmospheric SciencesOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China School of Meteorology University of OklahomaNormanOK 73072USA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Assimilation of satellite-derived relative humidity(Satellite-RH)is capable of improving sea fog forecasts by saturating the background in the observed foggy areas.Previous studies have achieved saturation by increasing the moisture only(Method-q).However,this method can lead to large wetting and warming biases within the marine atmospheric boundary layer(MABL).A new method using an RH observation operator(Method-RH)is designed to alleviate these biases by simultaneously adjusting the moisture and the temperature.For comparison,saturation is also achieved by decreasing the temperature only(Method-t).The three Satellite-RH assimilation methods are implemented within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation-based three-dimensional variational system and examined for three sea fog cases over the Yellow sea.The three cases on 28 April 2007,9 April 2009,and 29 March 2015 fail to be predicted without the Satellite-RH assimilation as their MABLs have both warming and drying,drying,and warming biases,respectively.Intercomparisons and evaluations show that Method-RH has the best overall performance of the three methods in terms of the forecast of sea fog and MABL structures as only Method-RH can fully or partially address all the bias scenarios in forecasting sea fog.Compared with Method-q,Method-RH produces more well-defined sea fog areas by adding a smaller amount of moisture as well as decreasing the temperature.Compared with Methodt,Method-RH enlarges the sea fog areas by increasing the amount of moisture in addition to the cooling.

关键词： assimilation of satellite-derived relative humidity observation operator for relative humidity sea fog marine atmospheric boundary layer

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MICROSTRUCTURES AND TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS DURING A sea fog EVENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2017年第2期23卷 155-165页

作者：张悦樊曙先张舒婷魏锦成 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and Technology Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Meteorological Bureau of Xiamen

Synoptic systems and microphysical properties associated with a sea fog event are analyzed based on the measurements of visibility, meteorological elements and fog droplet spectrum from a comprehensive field campaign in Xiamen, Fujian province during spring 2013. The influences of meteorological elements on the microstructures of the sea fog are also discussed. The results showed that the wind speed and direction changed suddenly during the intermittent and disperse phases of the sea fog. Liquid water content, number concentration and average diameter varied obviously in the development, mature and disperse phases of the sea fog. The burst re-enforcement of sea fog was accompanied by explosive broadening of fog droplet spectrum; average diameter, number concentration and liquid water content increased sharply; and background meteorological conditions also changed significantly. The microstructures fluctuated intensely due to changes in turbulence, radiation and meteorological conditions at different stages, including nucleation, condensation, coagulation, and evaporation, as well as the discontinuity of spatial distribution of droplets.

关键词： atmospheric physics sea fog meteorological elements microstructure temporal variation

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An observational and modeling study of a sea fog event over the yellow and east China seas on 17 March 2014

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2021年第3期10卷 182-190页

作者： Jibing Guo Jie Xu Xiangming Xu Fengxian District Meteorological Office ShanghaiChina Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center ShanghaiChina

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)satellite imagery,weather charts,objectively reanalyzed data,the observational data and station sounding data were analyzed to investigate a sea fog event occurred over the Yellow and East China seas on March 17,2014.The sounding profiles,weather situations and the related meteorological factors during the development and dissipation stages of this sea fog event were documented.Weather Research Forecast(WRF)model was applied to simulate this sea fog case.The simulated horizontal atmospheric visibility,cloud water,humidity,and vertical wind profile during the different stages of this fog event were analyzed.During the development stage of this sea fog,a southerly lower-jet with 16-18 ms-1,an inversion layer and a cold center over the Yellow sea were detected.The relative humidity in the fog area was above 95%.The specific humidity over the East China sea was higher than that over the Yellow sea.Southerly was dominated in fog area.However,during the dissipation stage of this sea fog,westerly replaced the southerly and at the lower level,southerly jet disappeared.A dry air area formed over the Shandong Peninsula and moved eastwards.Moreover,the WRF modeling result showed that the simulated atmospheric horizontal visibility and cloud water were approximately consistent with the MODIS satellite imagery.Most of cloud water concentrated below 200-400 m,and the cloud water in the southern part of fog area extended to a higher height than the northern part.While both of air temperature and dew-point temperature were close to sea surface temperature.

关键词： sea fog WRF modeling Lower level jet Atmospheric horizontal visibility

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A Heavy sea fog Event over the Yellow sea in March 2005:Analysis and Numerical Modeling

A Heavy Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea in March 2005:Anal...

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中国气象学会2005年年会

作者：高山红林行吴增茂沈飚 Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Marine Meteorology Institute Qingdao Observatory Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China

关键词： sea fog the Yellow sea numerical modeling sensitivity experiments

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Characteristics of the Boundary Layer Structure of sea fog on the Coast of Southern China

Characteristics of the Boundary Layer Structure of Sea Fog o...

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强化科技基础推进气象现代化——第29届中国气象学会...

作者：黄辉军刘红年蒋维楣黄健毛伟康 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Key Open Laboratory for Tropical Monsoon and Joint Open Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyChina Meteorological Administration

Using boundary layer data with regard to sea fog observed at the Science Experiment Base for Marine Meteorology at Bohe,Guangdong Province,the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the characteristics of the tops of the fog and the clouds were analyzed.In addition,the effects of advection,radiation,and turbulence during sea fog were also investigated.According to the stability definition of saturated,wet air,the gradient of the potential pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to zero was defined as the thermal turbulence interface.There is evidence to suggest that two layers of turbulence exist in sea fog.Thermal turbulence produced by long-wave radiation is prevalent above the thermal turbulence interface,whereas mechanical turbulence aroused by wind shear is predominant below the interface.The height of the thermal turbulence interface was observed between 180 m and 380 m.Three important factors are closely related to the development of the top of the sea fog:(1) the horizontal advection of the water vapor,(2) the long-wave radiation of the fog top,and(3) the movement of the vertical turbulence.Formation,development,and dissipation are the three possible phases of the evolution of the boundary-layer structure during the sea fog season.In addition,the thermal turbulence interface is the most significant turbulence interface during the formation and development periods;it is maintained after sea fog rises into the stratus layer.

关键词： coast of Southern China sea fog boundary layer structure advection radiation turbulence

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Features of visibility variation at Great Wall Station,Antarctica

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Advances in Polar Science 2013年第3期24卷 188-193页

作者： YANG Qinghua YU Lejiang WEI Lixin ZHANG Benzheng MENG Shang National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center College of Hydrometeorology Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Wuhan Meteorological Service

The variation of visibility at Great Wall Station （GWS） was analyzed using manual observational data for the period of 1986 to 2012. Results show that the frequencies of occurrence of high （≥ 10 km） and low visibility （0-1 km） are 61.0% and 8.0%, respectively. Visibility at GWS shows an evident seasonal variation： The highest visibility between November and March, and the lowest visibility from June to October. sea fog and precipitation are the main factors for low visibility during summer, whereas frequent adverse weather, such as falling snow, blowing snow, or blizzards, are responsible for low visibility in winter. The frequency of occurrence of low visibility has decreased significantly from 1986 to 2012. Conversely, the frequency of occurrence of high visibility has shown a significant increasing trend, especially during winter. The decreasing tendencies of fog, blowing snow, and snowfall have contributed to the increasing trend of high visibility during winter. Visibility at GWS exhibits significant synoptic-scale （2.1 to 8.3 d）, annual, and inter-annual periods （2 a, 4.1 a, and 6.9 a to 8.2 a）, among which the most significant period is 4.1 a. The visibility observed during 2012 indicates that instrumental observation can be applied in the continuous monitoring of visibility at GWS.

关键词： Great Wall Station Antarctica visibility sea fog blowing snow

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