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Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 843-855页

作者： Yiran ZHANG Degang ZHOU Xiaofeng GUO Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorable for increased runoff in the future. The above

关键词： The source region of the Yellow River Climate response runoff variation Evaporation Precipitation

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runoff variation and its response to climate change in the Three Rivers Source Region

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第5期22卷 781-794页

作者： ZHANG Yongyong ZHANG Shifeng ZHAI Xiaoyan XlA Jun Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes CAS Beijing 100101 China State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan430072 China

runoff at the three time scales （non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period） was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai （Yellow River Source Region： YeSR）, Zhimenda （Yangtze River Source Region： YaSR） and Changdu （Lancang River Source Region： LcSR） by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and down- stream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in baseline （1990s）, the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years （2010-2039）, especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the mid- stream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously. The runoff in YaSR would increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation would be severe. The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furlhermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR, followed by YeSR and LcSR.

关键词： climate change runoff variation SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool） Mann-Ke：~dall test ThreeRivers Source Region

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Analysis of variation in runoff of the Yi River Main Stream and Its Influencing Factors During 1955—2013

Analysis of Variation in Runoff of the Yi River Main Stream ...

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第十五届中国水论坛

作者： XIAO Xue LI Chuanqi MA Jie YANG Yuheng School of Civil Engineering Shandong University

Based on the runoff and precipitation data measured by Gegou Hydrological Station in Yi River basin during 1955—2013, and using statistical methods such as coefficient of variation, Kendall rank correlation coefficient, rescaled range analysis, Mann–Kendall test, double cumulative curve, multi-temporal scale variation of the runoff about Yi River main stream and its influencing factors are analyzed. The result shows that:（1） runoff of Yi River mainstream fluctuates greatly in the whole year, from June to September accounts for 78.35% and extreme ratio is 16.53.（2）The extreme ratio and coefficient of variation of the inter-annual runoff variation are 16.98, 0.77, respectively. The high water year and low water year appears alternately and the duration is inconsistent.（3）The runoff variation rate is-5.715（m3/s）/10 a, which shows the downward trend overall of Yi River mainstream runoff, which is consistent with the conclusion of the cumulative filter method. By taking use of Kendall rank correlation coefficient method, the M valve of the annual average runoff is-2.45, （|-2.45|＞1.96, the corresponding critical value of a=0.05 significance level a=0.05 is 1.96）, and the level is significant. Hurst index is 0.58 by rescaled range analysis, which indicates the decreasing trend of Yi River main stream would be continuous. According to Mann–Kendall test, mutation time point of the main stream runoff occurs in 1976.（4） The main factors influences runoff variation of the Yi River is human activities, and the impact proportion of precipitation and human activities on runoff varies a lot during different periods.

关键词： Yi River main stream runoff variation rescaled range analysis Mann–Kendall test double cumulative curve precipitation variation human activities

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径流变异条件下河道内生态需水计算--以太湖流域西苕溪为例

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2021年第8期31卷 1140-1158页

作者：王钦王淑雯胡庆芳王银堂刘勇李伶杰 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Nanjing Hydraulic Research InstituteNanjing 210029China Water Conservancy Bureau of Huzhou Huzhou 313000China Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development Nanjing 210098China

Climate change and human activity can cause remarkable hydrological variation.Traits of hydrological series such as runoff before and after the change points could be significantly different,so the calculation of instream ecological water requirements(EWRs)is confronted with more challenges.Taking the Xitiaoxi River(XTXR)in the upper reach of the Taihu Lake Basin as an example,this paper investigates the calculation of EWRs using the range of variability approach(RVA)under changing environment.The change point diagnosis of the natural and observed runoff series are conducted for XTXR.Then,differences in the hydrological alternation indicators and instream EWRs processes obtained from various daily runoff series are compared.It was found that the natural and observed annual runoff series in XTXR from 1957 to 2018 both show significant variations,and the change points are in 2007 and 1999 respectively.If runoff data before the change points or all runoff data are used,the instream EWRs obtained from natural runoff are significantly lower than those obtained from the observed runoff.At the monthly time step,EWRs differences within a year mainly occurred from May to August.Also,calculation results of the instream EWRs are strongly related to the selected period of runoff series.The EWRs obtained using runoff series after the change points have rather acute fluctuation within a year.Therefore,when the RVA method is used under changing environment,the instream EWRs should be prudently determined by comparing different calculation results on the basis of river runoff restoration and variability analysis.To a certain extent,this paper enriches our understanding about the hydrological method for EWRs estimation,and proposes new ideas for future research on EWRs.

关键词： runoff variation Taihu Lake Basin Xitiaoxi River ecological water requirements RVA

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Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2009年第2期1卷 157-164页

作者： YongChao Lan Jun Wen JunJie Chang YeXin Xu YongPing Shen XingLin Hu JinQi Lu Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated River Basin Science Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River BasinLanzhouGansu 730000China Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River BasinLanzhouGansu 730030China

In this study, the characteristics and changing trends of temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin. Further, in this study, the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination. The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming, and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years. runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing. runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously, whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely; the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow, glacier, and frozen soils in future several decades.

关键词： global climate change upper Yellow River runoff variation circulation

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Quantitative Detection and Attribution of runoff variations in the Aksu River Basin

Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations ...

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第十五届中国水论坛

作者：孟凡浩刘铁 HUANG Yue LUO Min BAO Anming HOU Dawei State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences The College of Public Administration Nanjing Agricultural University

Since the flow variations of Aksu River are strongly influenced by climate change and human activities which threat the local ecosystem and its sustainable development, it is necessary to quantify the impact degree of driven factors. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the variability of runoff in the Aksu River Basin. The Mann-Kendall trend test and accumulative anomaly method were used to analyse the break points of the flow difference value（FDV） between the upstream and downstream flume stations. The improved slope change ratio of cumulative quantity（SCRCQ） method and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT） model were applied to decouple the contribution of each driving factor to the FDV variations. Furthermore, a Pearson correlation analysis was performed to show the relationships among the driving factors and the FDV. The time series prior to the year（1988） of break point was considered the baseline period. Based on the mean annual precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration（PET）, the relative impacts of precipitation, PET and human activities on FDV variations as determined by the SCRCQ method were 77.35%,-0.98% and 23.63%, respectively. In addition, the SWAT model indicated that climate factors and human activities were responsible for 92.28% and 7.72% of the variability, respectively. Thus, climate change and human activities showed a similar scale of impact on FDV changes.

关键词： runoff variation climate change human activities Aksu River

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