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Bayesian network-based risk evaluation model for the operational requirements of the China Railway Express under the Belt and Road initiative

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Transportation Safety and Environment 2022年第3期4卷 18-31页

作者： Fenling Feng Junjie Jia Ailan Liang Chengguang Liu School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering Central South UniversityChangsha 410075HunanChina Rail Data Research and Application Key Laboratory of Hunan Province Central South UniversityChangsha 410075HunanChina.

The operation of the China Railway Express features numerous links across several regions and countries. Effectively controlling therisks involved in the operation of the China Railway Express is crucial for ensuring safety and efficiency and promoting the sustainabledevelopment of the China Railway Express. The Bayesian network-based risk-management model was built corresponding to theactual operation of the China Railway Express;the model used an advanced risk-management theory. The sensitivity analysis of riskfactors and Bayesian network inference were realized using the expectation-maximization and clique-tree propagation *** the risk-checklistmethod, 17 risk-related factors were analysed on 17 nodes of the Bayesian network fromthree perspectives—safety, efficiency and effectiveness—based on expert opinions and the actual operating conditions of the China Railway *** from a sensitivity analysis and evidence inference of the Bayesian network model indicated that the sensitivity coefficients ofnodes N01, N04, N07, N08 and N17 of the network were high. Moreover, the risk-occurrence probabilities for nodes N01, N04, N06,N07 and N09 were higher in the case of reverse inference. Our results revealed the crucial factors influencing the risk. The identifiedrisk factors included the stability of the political environment in countries along the route, conditions of station infrastructures andthe complexity of the process of changing rails and reloading. Further, risk-management suggestions were provided. By establishinga sound risk-management framework, reliable assessment and management could be realized in accordance with changes in theoperating conditions of the China Railway Express.

关键词： risk evaluation Bayesian network China railway express risk-management suggestion

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