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analysis of the Tragedy of Vila Socóin Cubatão (São Paulo, Brazil) Using the Haddon Matrix: A Comprehensive Examination of Socio-Environmental Factors and risk Mitigation Strategies

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2024年第5期15卷 620-639页

作者： Rubens Martins Santos Nilce Ortiz Sabine Neusatz Guilhen Nuclear and Energy Research Institute IPEN/SP S&#227o Paulo Brazil

The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an influx of migrants drawn by burgeoning industries, leading to unplanned urban growth and the emergence of vulnerable communities like Vila Socó. This article examines the interconnected factors—such as demographic shifts, inadequate planning, and regulatory oversight—that culminated in the devastating fire of 1984, claiming numerous lives and highlighting systemic failures. Utilizing the Haddon Matrix, this study dissects the Vila Socó incident, emphasizing the roles of human error, infrastructure integrity, and socio-economic disparities in disaster causation. By contextualizing the tragedy within Cubatão’s industrial trajectory, it underscores the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment and proactive mitigation strategies in rapidly developing regions globally. Beyond its immediate focus, this work offers broader insights into the dynamics of industrial disasters and their socio-economic implications. As pipelines continue to play a vital role in global energy infrastructure, the lessons drawn from Vila Socó’s tragedy resonate deeply, emphasizing the imperative of robust safety protocols and accountable governance to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.

关键词： Haddon Matrix Vila Socó Accident risk analysis Cubatão

risk analysis and maintenance decision making of natural gas pipelines with external corrosion based on Bayesian network

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石油科学：英文版 2022年第3期19卷 1250-1261页

作者： Yun-Tao Li Xiao-Ning He Jian Shuai College of Safety and Ocean Engineering China University of PetroleumBeijingChina

Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.

关键词： Natural gas pipelines External corrosion risk analysis Maintenance decision making Bayesian network

A framework for risk analysis of the shellfish aquaculture:The case of the Mediterranean mussel farming in Greece

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Aquaculture and Fisheries 2023年第4期8卷 375-384页

作者： John A.Theodorou Ioannis Tzovenis Department of Animal Production Fisheries&AquacultureUniversity of PatrasMesolonghi30200Greece Laboratory of Ecology&Systematics Biology Dept.University of AthensPanepistimioupolisZografou15784Greece

Mediterranean mussel farming in Greece developed considerably during the last 40 years reaching a gross commodity product up to the limits of the country’s production capacity(35–40,000 tonnes/year).Despite the achievements in the sector’s growth,little or no effort has been attributed yet to risk assessment and moreover to risk management of the activity.The present effort aims at developing a working framework for the shellfish aquaculture of Greece to be used as a tool by the sector’s decision makers to advance strategies for risk elimination or avoidance.The work was based on a generic risk management standard tool,the Joint Australian and New Zealand risk Management Standard AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 that has been adapted to the specific national characteristics of all levels of the mussel farming business-activities and the industry function.The framework supported by data sets regarding development,production,profits and losses,retrieved by surveys through distributed questionnaires or interviews during site-visits,as well as by collecting data from national and international authorities.Data input covered technology,farm size,farmer risk-attitude,risk-management strategies,risk-perceptions and socioeconomic profiles.Major risks and risk management options were identified providing aid for remediation risk policies to the stakeholders.

关键词： ISO 31000 risk analysis Mediterranean mussel farming Aquaculture insurance

risk analysis and Assessment of Overtopping Concerning Sea Dikes in the Case of Storm Surge

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China Ocean Engineering 2014年第4期28卷 479-487页

作者：王莉萍黄桂玲陈正寿梁丙臣刘桂林 College of Mathematical Science Ocean University of China School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Zhejiang Ocean University College of Engineering Ocean University of China

risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.

关键词： sea dikes risk analysis failure rate mutual information

risk analysis of power systems for both real and reactive power

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Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2013年第2期1卷 150-158页

作者： Wenping QIN Peng WANG Xiaoqing HAN Fanhua MENG Taiyuan University of Technology Taiyuan 030024China School of EEE Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore 639798Singapore

With the high penetration of renewable energy sources,the reliability of power systems becomes more vulnerable than ever because of the greater uncertainty and intermittence in power generation.Reactive power plays an important role in the power system reliability,because it is closely related to the system voltage stability and voltage collapse.However,reactive power-related reliability issues are seldom emphasized in conventional power reliability evaluations.This article investigates power system reliability of real and reactive power.Real and reactive power shortages and the associated voltage violations due to system failures are considered on reliability evaluation of power systems.A three-stage load-shedding technique for post contingencies is implemented to determine the contributions of real and reactive power on the system reliability and to find an optimal way to release network violation.The results provide the detailed information on power system planning and operation for system planners and operators from real and reactive power aspects.

关键词： Reactive power risk analysis Reliability Voltage stability

risk analysis of extended reach wells in the Liuhua Oilfield,South China Sea,based on comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method

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Petroleum Science 2009年第2期6卷 172-175页

作者： Zhang Hui Gao Deli Hao Zhiwei MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China

Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.

关键词： Extended reach well risk analysis comprehensive fuzzy evaluation weight value

risk analysis for clustered check dams due to heavy rainfall

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2021年第2期36卷 291-305页

作者： Zuyu Chen Xieping Huang Shu Yu Wei Cao Weiqin Dang Yangqiang Wang Institute of Geotechnical Engineering Zhejiang University Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Suide Experimental Station for Soil and Water Conservation Yellow River Conservancy Commission Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University

Check dams are commonly constructed around the world for alleviating soil erosion and preventing sedimentation of downstream rivers and reservoirs. Check dams are more vulnerable to failure due to their less stringent flood control standards compared to other dams. Determining the critical precipitation that will result in overtopping of a dam is a useful approach to assessing the risk of failure on a probabilistic basis and for providing early warning in case of an emergency. However, many check dams are built in groups, spreading in several tributaries in cascade forms, comprising a complex network.Determining the critical precipitation for dam overtopping requires a knowledge of its upstream dams on whether they survived or were overtopped during the same storm, while these upstream dams in turn need the information for their upstream dams. The current paper presents an approach of decomposing the dam cluster into(1) the heading dam,(2) border dams, and(3) intermediate dams. The algorithm begins with the border dams that have no upstream dams and proceeds with upgraded maps without the previous border dams until all the dams have been checked. It is believed that this approach is applicable for small-scale check dam systems where the time lag of flood routing can be neglected. As a pilot study, the current paper presents the analytical results for the Wangmaogou Check Dam System that has 22 dams connected in series and parallel. The algorithm clearly identified 7 surviving dams, with the remaining ones being overtopped for a storm of 179.6 mm in 12 h, which is associated with a return period of one in 200 years.

关键词： risk analysis Check dam Critical precipitation Cascade dams

Power plant selection in a carbon constrained world the TERA(technoeconomic environmental risk analysis)

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航空动力学报 2009年第4期24卷 896-902页

作者： Stephen Ogaji Pericles Pilidis Vishal Sethi Department of Power and Propulsion School of Engineering Cranfield University

There is an increasing concern that current trends of consumption of natural resources cannot continue.It is imperative that major targeted investments are made into economical and reliable environment friendly propulsion and power solutions.Many novel and promising concepts are being proposed.The selection of the best candidates to pursue for investment becomes a very difficult choice.A detailed TERA(techno-economic environmental risk analysis) framework is described here to quantify risks and to compare and rank competing schemes on a formal and consistent basis.This technique is based on detailed and rigorous thermodynamic representations of power plants.A layer of environment,economic,weather and other models to describe the appropriate local conditions is superimposed to this.The outcome is a techno-economic environmental risk analysis framework with appropriate detail of each power plant as applied to the appropriate conditions.The results for each concept can then be compared and contrasted to make appropriate selections.

关键词： TERA(techno-economic environmental risk analysis) techno-economic risk analysis gas turbine multi-disciplinary optimisation(MDO)

risk analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences 2007年第4期12卷 669-676页

作者： ZHANG Ji1,2,YU Sujun31. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China 2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China 3. School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu China

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.

关键词： blind number theory groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation risk analysis