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Prediction of petroleum exploration risk and subterranean spatial distribution of hydrocarbon accumulations

Petroleum Science 2011年第1期8卷 17-23页

作者： Xie Hongbing Guo Qiulin Li Feng Li Jianzhong Wu Na Hu Suyun Liang Kun School of Energy Resources China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration ＆ Development PetroChinaBeijing 100083China Science ＆ Technology Management Department China National Petroleum CorporationBeijing 100007China

Investigation of spatial distribution of oil and gas resource and accurate prediction of the geographic location of its undiscovered resource is significant for reducing exploration risk and improving exploration benefit.A new method for predicting spatial distribution of oil resource is discussed in this *** consists of prediction of risk probability in petroleum exploration and simulation of hydrocarbon abundance. Exploration risk probability is predicted by multivariate statistics,fuzzy mathematics and information processing techniques.A spatial attribute database for sample wells was set up and the Mahalanobis distance and Fuzzy value of given samples were ***,the Bayesian formula was used to calculate the hydrocarbon-bearing probability at the area of exploration ***,a hydrocarbon probability template is formed and used to forecast the probability of the unknown area. The hydrocarbon abundance is simulated based on Fourier integrals,frequency spectrum synthesis and fractal ***,the fast Fourier transformation（FFT） is used to transform the known hydrocarbon abundance from the spatial domain to the frequency domain,then,frequency spectrum synthesis is used to produce the fractal frequency spectrum,and FFT is applied to get the phase information of hydrocarbon-bearing ***,the frequency spectrum simulation is used to calculate the renewed hydrocarbon abundance in the play. This method is used to predict the abundance and possible locations of the undiscovered petroleum accumulations in the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin,*** prediction results for the well-explored onshore area of the northern Nanpu Sag agree well with the actual *** the less-explored offshore areas in the southern Nanpu Sag,the prediction results suggest high hydrocarbon abundance in Nanpu-1 and Nanpu-2,providing a useful guiding for future exploration.

关键词： Hydrocarbon resources abundance risk forecast Nanpu sag frequency spectrum simulation fractal theory

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Rise of Cross-border E-commerce Exports in China

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China & World Economy 2018年第3期26卷 63-87页

作者： Shuzhong Ma Yuxi Chai Hongsheng Zhang School of Economics Zhejiang University China

China＇s cross-border e-commerce industry has demonstrated stable and rapid development thanks to the implementation of appropriate policy support and the progressive establishment of e-commerce platforms. The industry＇s prosperity suggests unique advantages of cross-border e-commerce, which are a result of promoting industrial transformation and accelerating economic restructuring. Due to asymmetric information and insufficient data, little research has been conducted on the current status and the trends of the industry as well as the magnitude of risk in cross-border e-commerce. Using the cross-border e-commerce hosting service database of BizArk, the present study has constructed an index for China ＂s export e-commerce prosperity and magnitude of risk which reveals that the industry：（i） generally presents a tendency of solid growth; （ii） has had a relatively stable situation for logistics facilitation but a drastic fluctuation in customs facilitation; （iii） has gradually shifted to competing for cheaper and more efficient marketing techniques as well as channels; and （iv） has experienced a remarkable amelioration of risk magnitude.

关键词： cross-border e-commerce export trade prosperity monitoring risk forecast

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