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Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第4期14卷 390-410页

作者： SUN Dingzhao LIANG Youjia PENG Shouzhang State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water ResourcesYangling 712100China School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhan 430070China Institute of Surveying and Mapping Guizhou Geology and Mineral Exploration BureauGuiyang 550018China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enha

关键词： water retention water yield land use/cover change climate change representative concentration pathway Markov-Cellular Automata model Loess Plateau

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Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

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Regional Sustainability 2021年第1期2卷 60-72页

作者： Muhammadjon Kobuliev Tie Liu Zainalobudin Kobuliev Xi Chen Aminjon Gulakhmadov Anming Bao State Key Laborutory of Desert and Oasis Xinjiang Instinite of Fcology and GeographyChinese Academy of Sciences Urmgi830011China University of Chinese Acadeny of Sciences Beijing 100049China Instinite of Water Problems Hydropower and Rcology of the Academy of Sciences of the Repubic of Taikisan Dushanbe734042Tajikistan Research Center for Ecology and Emironment of Central Asia Chinese Acadmy of SciencesUrumqi830011China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Farth Sciences CAS-HECIslamabad 45320Pakistan

Danghara,a major food production area in southern Tajikistan,is currently suffering from the impact of rapid climate change and intensive human activities.Assessing the future impact of climate change on crop water requirements(CWRs)for the current growing period and defining the optimal sowing date to reduce future crop water demand are essential for local/regional water and food planning.Therefore,this study attempted to analyze possible future climate change effects on the water requirements of major crops using the statistical downscaling method in the Danghara District to simulate the future temperature and precipitation for two future periods(2021-2050 and 2051-2080),under three representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)according to the CanESM2 global climate model.The water footprint(WFP)of major crops was calculated as a measure of their CWRs.The increased projection of precipitation and temperature probably caused an increase in the main crop’s WFP for the current growing period,which was mainly due to the green water(GW)component in the long term and a decrease in the blue water(BW)component during the second future period,except for cotton,where all components were predicted to remain stable.Under three scenarios for the two future potato and winter wheat decreased from 5.7%to 4.8%and 3.4%to 2.2%,respectively.Although the WFP of cotton demonstrated a stable increase,according to the optimal sowing date,adecrease in irrigation demand or Bw was expected.The results of our study might be useful fordeveloping a new strategy related to irrigation systems and could help to find a balance betweenwater and food for environmental water demands and human use.

关键词： Optimal sowing date representative concentration pathway Crop water requirement Statistical downscaling method Green water Blue water Southern Tajikistan

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