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Bayesian zero-failure reliability modeling and assessment method for multiple numerical control(NC) machine tools

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Journal of Central South University 2016年第11期23卷 2858-2866页

作者：阚英男杨兆军李国发何佳龙王彦鹍李洪洲 College of Mechanical Science and Engineering Jilin University College of Mechanical Engineering Beihua University

A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus, the zero-failure data form and corresponding Bayesian model are developed to solve the zero-failure problem of NCMTs, for which no previous suitable statistical model has been developed. An expert-judgment process that incorporates prior information is presented to solve the difficulty in obtaining reliable prior distributions of Weibull parameters. The equations for the posterior distribution of the parameter vector and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm are derived to solve the difficulty of calculating high-dimensional integration and to obtain parameter estimators. The proposed method is applied to a real case; a corresponding programming code and trick are developed to implement an MCMC simulation in Win BUGS, and a mean time between failures(MTBF) of 1057.9 h is obtained. Given its ability to combine expert judgment, prior information, and data, the proposed reliability modeling and assessment method under the zero failure of NCMTs is validated.

关键词： Weibull distribution reliability modeling Bayes zero failure numerical control(NC) machine tools Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm

Mission reliability modeling and Prediction of an Automatic Sprinkler System

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Mission Reliability Modeling and Prediction of an Automatic ...

Methods on Lithium-ion Power Battery System reliability modeling

作者： Xiao YU Jian-Jun QI Li-Qin WANG Dong-Feng WANG Beijing Special Engineering Design and Research Institute

If the sprinkler system cannot be started at the time of need,it may cause huge economic *** system needs to have high ***,in the design stage of sprinkler system,it is necessary to carry out reliability modeling and prediction to ensure that the system reliability can meet the *** this paper,the design scheme of a building sprinkler system is analyzed in depth,and then a task reliability model considering maintenance strategy,stand-by period failure and task period failure is established,and the reliability is predicted to evaluate whether the design scheme of the system can meet the design needs.

关键词： Sprinkler System Mission reliability reliability modeling Maintenance strategy

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Methods on Lithium-ion Power Battery System Reliability Mode...

Physics of Failure(PoF)-Based reliability and Performance Integrating modeling Method and Software for Electromechanical Product

2016中国汽车工程学会年会暨展览会

作者： Zhang Hongchang Mu Qiyong Li Huaxin Potevio New Energy Vehicle Technology Co. Ltd

In this paper,we confirmed the connection between the battery units in power battery system by quoting the reliability theory,and studied whether subjects conform to the reliability model theory by combining with the working principle of the power battery *** introduced voting redundancy design concept to the study object which do not comply with of the reliability model theory,and set 5 restrained conditions by the Matlab simulation softwares the numerical simulation for power battery system reliability function and further analyzes the *** experimental results showed that,when x≤0.905,the sample battery system reliability of A was 0,when x = 0.995,the battery system reliability was *** x = 0.9,the reliability of the battery module and battery plate of sample B was about 0.8,and the reliability of the battery system was 0,in order to ensure the high reliability of the whole cell system,the x value was at least 0.99.

关键词： lithium-ion battery power battery battery system reliability modeling simulation software

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Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2015年第6期32卷 895-900页

作者：王增凯曾声奎郭健彬 School of reliability and Systems Engineering Beihang University Science and Technology on reliability and Environment Engineering Laboratory

Electromechanical product's reliability is affected by uncertainty as well as performance degeneration during its life *** present reliability and performance integrating modeling methods have obvious deficiencies in long period reliability analysis and assessment when applied to such system.A novel integrating modeling method based on physics of failure(PoF)and a simulation algorithm that considers uncertainty and degeneration are proposed in this paper to compute maintenance free operation period or maintenance free operation period survivability which is used to assess long period reliability of ***,the concept design of this kind of software based on the above theory is also introduced.A case study of servo valve demonstrates the feasibility of the method and usability of the software in this research.

关键词： reliability modeling physics of failure(PoF)simulation algorithm software

Using PoF models to predict system reliability considering failure collaboration

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2016年第5期29卷 1294-1301页

作者： Zeng Zhiguo Kang Rui Chen Yunxia Chair on Systems Science and Energetic Challenge Fondation Electricitéde France (EDF) Centrale Supélec Université Paris-Saclay School of reliability and Systems Engineering Beihang University

Existing Physics-of-Failure-based （PoF-based） system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the compo- nents. In this paper, a new type of dependency, referred to as failure collaboration, is introduced and considered in reliability predictions. A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration. Based on the developed model, the Bisection-based reliability Analysis Method （BRAM） is exploited to calculate the system reliability. The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator （HSA）. The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.

关键词： Dependency Failure collaboration Physics-of-failure reliability modeling reliability prediction

reliability Modelling and Analysis of Satellite Propulsion System Based on reliability Block Diagram and Extended Object-Oriented Petri Net

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Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2015年第6期32卷 1001-1005页

作者：周行黄洪钟 College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology

Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill *** reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satellite propulsion *** extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN)method was proposed to facilitate the reliability modelling of satellite propulsion system in the *** proposed method was specified for modelling of phased mission system,and it could be implemented by generating combination of Petri net(PN)principles and object-oriented(OO)*** effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the reliability modelling of a satellite propulsion system with *** major advantage of the proposed method is that the dimension of net model can be reduced significantly,and phased mission system at system,phase,or component levels can be respectively ***,the state-space explosion problem is solved by the proposed EOOPN model efficiently.

关键词： satellite propulsion system extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN) object-oriented programming reliability modeling reliability analysis

Life Distribution Transformation Model of Planetary Gear System

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Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2018年第2期31卷 208-215页

作者： Ming Li Li-Yang Xie Hai-Yang Li Jun-Gang Ren Key Laboratory of Vibration and Control of Aviation Propulsion System Ministry of Education Northeastern University

Planetary gear systems have been widely used in transportation, construction, metallurgy, petroleum, aviation and other industrial fields. Under the same condition of power transmission, they have a more compact structure than ordinary gear train. However, some critical parts, such as sun gear, planet gear and ring gear often suffer from fatigue and wear under the conditions of high speed and heavy load. For reliability research, in order to predict the fatigue probability life of planetary gear system, detailed kinematic and mechanical analysis for a planetary gear system is firstly completed. Meanwhile, a gear bending fatigue test is carried out at a stress level to obtain the strength information of specific gears. Then, a life distribution transformation model is established according to the order statistics theory. Transformation process is that, the life distribution of test gear is transformed to that of single tooth, and then the life distribution of single tooth can be effectively transformed to that of the planetary gear system. In addition, the effectiveness of the transformation model is finally verified by a processing method with random censoring data.

关键词： Planetary gear system reliability modeling Probabilistic life Random censoring data

A compositional method to model dependent failure behavior based on PoF models

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2017年第5期30卷 1729-1739页

作者： Zhiguo ZENG Yunxia CHEN Enrico ZIO Rui KANG EDF Foundation Chair on Systems Science and Energetic Challenge CentraleSupelec Universite Paris-Saclay Grande Voie des Vignes 92290 Chatenay-Malabry France School of reliability and Systems Engineering Beihang University Beijing 100083 China Energy Department Politecnieo di Milano Italy

In this paper, a new method is developed to model dependent failure behavior among failure mechanisms. Unlike the existing methods, the developed method models the root cause of the dependency explicitly, so that a deterministic model, rather than a probabilistic one, can be established. Three steps comprise the developed method. First, physics-of-failure（PoF） models are utilized to model each failure mechanism. Then, interactions among failure mechanisms are modeled as a combination of three basic relations, competition, superposition and coupling. This is the reason why the method is referred to as ＂compositional method＂. Finally, the PoF models and the interaction model are combined to develop a deterministic model of the dependent failure behavior. As a demonstration, the method is applied on an actual spool and the developed failure behavior model is validated by a wear test. The result demonstrates that the compositional method is an effective way to model dependent failure behavior.

关键词： Degradation Dependent failures Multiple dependent competing failure processes reliability modeling Shock

Bayesian Method reliability of Flight Simulator

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International English Education Research 2017年第1期 76-78页

作者： WANG Li XIONG Jing Shanghai University of Engineering Science Shanghai 201620 China

This paper introduces the basic viewpoints and characteristics of Bayesian statistics. Which provides a theoretical basis for solving the problem of small sample of flight simulator using Bayesian method. A series of formulas were derived to establish the Bayesian reliability modeling and evaluation model for flight simulation equipment. The two key problems of Bayesian method were pointed out as follows： obtaining the prior distribution of WeibuU parameter, calculating the parameter a posterior distribution and parameter estimation without analytic solution, and proposing the corresponding solution scheme.

关键词： Small sample data Flight simulation equipment reliability modeling Bayesian method Weibull parameter