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record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged temperature(CMST) Dataset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 369-376页

作者： Zichen LI Qingxiang LI Tianyi CHEN School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disasters SUN Yat-Sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering(Guangdong Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.

关键词： CMST2.0 global mean surface temperature record-breaking temperature El Ni?o

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El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface temperature in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1017-1022页

作者： Kexin LI Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU Qing-Cun ZENG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

关键词： record-breaking temperature global mean surface temperature El Niño AMO global warming

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