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Research of recognizing intelligence based on commanding decision-making

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2006年第4期17卷 775-780页

作者： Liu Jingxue Fei Qi Inst. of Systems Engineering Huazhong Univ. of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 P. R. China Wuhan Communication Command Coll. Wuhan 430010 P. R. China

In commanding decision-making, the commander usually needs to know a lot of situations（intelligence） on the adversary. Because of the military intelligence with opposability, it is inevitable that intelligence personnel take some deceptive information released by the rival as intelligence data in the process of intelligence gathering. Since the failure of intelligence is likely to lead to a serious aftereffect, the recognition of intelligence is a very important problem. An elementary research on recognizing military intelligence and puts forward a systematic processing method are made. First, the types and characteristics of military intelligence are briefly discussed, a research thought of recognizing military intelligence by means of recognizing military hypotheses are presented. Next, the reasoning mode and framework for recognizing military hypotheses are presented from the angle of psychology of intelligence analysis and non-monotonic reasoning. Then, a model for recognizing military hypothesis is built on the basis of fuzzy judgement information given by intelligence analysts. A calculative example shows that the model has the characteristics of simple calculation and good maneuverability. Last, the methods that selecting the most likely hypothesis from the survival hypotheses via final recognition are discussed.

关键词： psychology of intelligence analysis non-monotonic reasoning fuzzy judgement recognizing model D-S theory LOWA operator.

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