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Assessing Global Warming Induced Changes in Summer rainfall variability over Eastern China Using the Latest Hadley Centre Climate Model HadGEM3-GC2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 181-197页

作者： Yawen DUAN Peili WU Xiaolong CHEN Zhuguo MA Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (TEA) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX1 3PB UK State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China axe characterized spatially by meridionally banded structnres fluctu- ating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CQ simulation and the model＇s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from exces- sive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes.

关键词： rainfall variability global warming ENSO HadGEM3-GC2

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Towards a Sociology of Adaptation to rainfall variability in Rural Zimbabwe： The Case of Charewa in Mutoko

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Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2017年第4期10卷 547-568页

作者： Sandra Bhatasara Sociology Department University of Zimbabwe P.O. Box MP 167 MT Pleasant HarareZimbabwe

rainfall variability has introduced new challenges for farmers in rural Zimbabwe, who are already facing various difficulties in maintaining their insecure livelihoods. Yet, current adaptation theories and inquiries have failed to sufficiently account for and analyse how these farmers are responding to changing climatic conditions. In this respect, a number of studies have been heavily embedded in deterministic concepts and fail to take into account the structures, processes and conditions underpinning adaptation processes. As such, based on an empirical case study and using qualitative data collection methods such as life history interviews, this paper argues that the process of adaptation is ostensibly not straightforward but complex. As it evolves, farmers find themselves facing numerous constraining structures and processes. What is critical is that they are able to circumvent the constraints presented to them and at the same time activate the corresponding enablements. Sociologically then, adaptation is an evolving, complex and reflexive process.

关键词： rainfall variability Farmers Adaptation Sociology Reflexivity

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North Atlantic Oscillation and rainfall variability in Southeastern Nigeria:A Statistical Analysis of 30 Year Period

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2021年第4期4卷 42-49页

作者： Okorie Fidelis Chinazor Department of Geography and Environmental Management Imo State University OwerriNigeria

This study analyzed rainfall variability in Southeast region of Nigeria using graphical models,as well as using statistical approach to investigate any significant relationship between the global North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)Index and the regional rainfall variability in region.The study was conducted in three States of Southeastern Nigeria namely,Abia,Ebonyi and Imo States that lie between Latitudes 4040’and 8050’N and Longitudes 6020’and 8050’E.Data for the study included 30 years(1988-2017)archival time-series monthly rainfall values for the three study States,acquired from Nigerian Meteorological Agency(NIMET),offices in the states,and Standardized values of NAOI(North Atlantic Oscillation Index)for the same period,which were collected from a website,on the NOAA Data Center,USA.In the data analyses,the first method was adopted by using graphs to illustrate mean annual rainfall values for thirty years.Coefficient of variability was employed in evaluating the degree of variability of values from the mean rate.The second analysis was accomplished using correlation models to ascertain any relationship between NAOI and rainfall in Southeast Nigeria.The results showed a significant variability of rainfall in the region from January to December(mean monthly)within the study period.A negative correlation value of 0.7525 was obtained from the correlation analysis,showing that the global NAO index and rainfall variability deviate in the opposite direction.Coefficient of multiple determinations(CMD)subsequently showed value of 0.031%,being the variation in rainfall as influenced by the global teleconnectivity,and this means that the NAO index has zero or no influence on rainfall variability in Southeast region of Nigeria.

关键词： NAO rainfall variability Relationship Statistical analysis Southeastern Nigeria

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Assessing the variability of Heavy rainfall during October to December rainfall Season in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 267-283页

作者： Lovina Peter Japheth Guirong Tan Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Isack Yonah Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Nanjing University of Science and Technology Nanjing China

Heavy rainfall is one of the primary causes of flood during rainy season in Tanzania leading to severe socio-economic impacts. The study aimed at assessing and characterizing the variability of Heavy rainfall Events (HREs) using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Mann-Kendal (MK) trend test, Correlation and Composite analysis methods. Based on the daily-observed precipitation and reanalysis data sets for the October to December (OND) rainfall season of 35 years (1981-2015), the spatial and temporal characteristics of HREs in Tanzania are studied. The relationship between heavy rainfall (HR) and large-scale circulation anomalies including the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o southern oscillation (ENSO) indices was assessed. The study found that, approximately 590 HREs were concentrated over northern sector and coastal belt of Tanzania. The monthly variability indicates that HREs are more pronounced in December followed by November while October being the least affected. The occurrence of HREs over the Lake Victoria, Kigoma and Tabora is largely attributed to low-level convergence of westerlies and enhanced moisture from Congo basin accompanied by a pronounced rising limb of Indian Walker circulation cell. A time-series analysis of HRE exhibits an inter-annual variation characterized by a slightly increasing trend, though the computed trends were not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. In most part of Tanzania HREs were positively correlated with both ENSO and IOD indices, underscoring the critical role of ENSO and Indian Ocean dynamic in modulating rainfall variability over the region. In general, it has been found that most of the HREs are generally triggered or amplified by large-scale circulation patterns such as ENSO and IOD.

关键词： rainfall variability Heavy rainfall Events OND Tanzania

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ENSO海温背景下气候模式模拟西北太平洋热带气旋变率的能力

ENSO海温背景下气候模式模拟西北太平洋热带气旋变率的能力

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第33届中国气象学会年会

作者：韩荣青 Hui Wang Zeng-Zhen Hu Arun Kumar 李维京国家气候中心 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center

＜正＞1结果ENSO海温背景下气候模式模拟西北太平洋热带气旋年际变化的能力文分析评估了5个美国气候模式（表1）对西北太平洋（western North Pacific,简称WNP）热带气旋（Tropical Cyclones,简称TCs）年际变化（表2）、对TCs在实际ENS... 详细信息

＜正＞1结果ENSO海温背景下气候模式模拟西北太平洋热带气旋年际变化的能力文分析评估了5个美国气候模式（表1）对西北太平洋（western North Pacific,简称WNP）热带气旋（Tropical Cyclones,简称TCs）年际变化（表2）、对TCs在实际ENSO海温异常强迫下变化的模拟能力（图2）,并诊断了模式在模拟大尺度气候条件产生的偏差对TCs模拟的影响（图3-5）。模式试验由美国气候变率和预测研究计划(U.S.Climate variability

关键词： Topography rainfall variability central Africa Great lakes

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Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第7期11卷 30-55页

作者： Alikalifa Sanogo Prince Appiah Owusu Roland Songotu Kabange Bakary Issa Djire Racheal Fosu Donkoh Nasser Dia Department of Civil Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Technology Kumasi Technical University Kumasi Ghana Department of Mathematical Sciences Clark Atlanta University Atlanta USA

As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, resp

关键词： Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) rainfall variability Univariate Proba-bility Distribution Drought Bamako

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The Recent Droughts of 2019/20 in Southern Africa and Its Teleconnection with ENSO Events

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第2期12卷 246-263页

作者： Berhanu F. Alemaw Department of Geology University of Botswana Gaborone Botswana

This study is motivated to highlight the variability of recent drought hotspots in the region of southern Africa in terms of the seasonal and annual rainfall regimes and their possible spatial linkage with the 1950-2020 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some evidence is found on possible links between the occurrence of drought hotspots in the region in terms of seasonal and mean annual runoff and warm ENSO events. This was revealed by the existence of a strong and nearly-strong positive linear correlation between Seasonal and annual rainfall depths and the warm seasonal ENSO indices explained by the southern oscillation index represented by the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies data obtained from the National Oceanographic and Aeronautics Administration (NOAA). Considering the entire southern African region, 41% of the surface areas exhibit moderate (r > 0.25) and strong (r > 0.5) correlation coefficients in terms of the December to February quarter rainfall and ENSO indices. Above 50% confidence interval in the correlation between seasonal rainfall and ENSO during DJF quarters is found in 74% of the surface area of the region of southern Africa. The high confidence interval of the positive correlation coefficients is an indication that substantial variance of precipitation during ENSO years is accounted for by the warm ENSO events. The areas with pronounced lower rainfalls and droughts associated with ENSO activity in the region include larger and some pockets of various countries in southern Africa, including but not limited to Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Mozambique. The recent drought events of 2019/2020, and previously in 2015/16 in this region with wider regional impacts can be explained by the ENSO phenomena.

关键词： rainfall variability Drought ENSO Episode Correlation Analysis Southern Africa

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Response of Seasonal Vegetation Dynamics to Climatic Constraints in Northeastern Burundi

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2020年第9期8卷 151-181页

作者： Pacifique Batungwanayo Marnik Vanclooster Alan F. Koropitan Departement of Mathematics Institute of Applied Pedagogy University of Burundi Bujumbura Burundi Research Center for Mathematical and Physical Sciences Doctoral School University of Burundi Bujumbura Burundi Earth and Life Institute Université Catholique de Louvain Louvain-la-Neuve Belgium Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences IPB University Bogor Indonesia

The climate crises in East Africa (EA), particularly in Burundi, have affected vegetation which, in turn, plays a key role in the climate system by modifying the terrestrial water and energy balance. Consequently, it is vital to understand vegetation dynamics and its response to current and projected climate conditions to support the design of climate resilient land management strategies. The objective of this study was to study the dynamics of vegetation cover over the Northeastern Burundi (NEB) in response to climatic constraints. The methodology used consisted of the interpretation of satellite images along with the analysis of data collected through rain-gauge stations. The data sets used include time series composite moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected between February 2000 and December 2017;long term (1986-2017) rainfall data acquired from two meteorological stations throughout the Northeastern provinces in Burundi and precipitation and mean temperature data (1986-2017) from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and ERA5 Daily aggregates for the study area. The study provides an assessment of the vegetation trends in NEB using the NDVI time series. In addition, regression analysis is applied to assess the relations between NDVI and precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration, as well as with growing season characteristics (onset, cessation, and length). Results show that the rate in vegetation productivity is persistently gradual between 2000 and 2011 despite fluctuations from the mean position, followed by a lower growth rate over the period 2011-2017. There has been trend variation in precipitation, neither the temperature was constant. The temperature over the region has increased while the precipitation has decreased. The onset of the growing season and air temperature also show a significant influence on seasonal vegetation dynamics in the region. Drought-induced plant stres

关键词： rainfall variability Onset Dry Spell NDVI Remote Sensing Northeastern Burundi

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The Impact of Climate Change on rainfall Patterns in Ghana:A Zoning Adaptation Strategy through Developing Agroforestry

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Journal of Atmospheric Science Research 2021年第1期4卷 26-38页

作者： Mohammed Suabir Zubairu Wei Li Amatus Gyilbag Michael Asiedu Kumi Akhtar Hussain Lashari School of Environment Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science(CAAS) Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture(GSCAAS)Beijing100875China

As a developing country in Africa,the effect of climate change is one of the sufferings of Ghana.The effect is much felt in rainfall variability because of the country over reliance on rainfall for agriculture.While various researches have studied the impact of climate change in Ghana,few among them have extended to its impact on rainfall pattern across all the ecological zones in the country.The trends in the rainfall from seven selected meteorological stations across all the ecological zones were analyzed using data from the NASA satellite.The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Test were used for the analysis.The study found decreasing trend in most of the monthly and yearly rainfall pattern across the ecological zones,and suggested cashew agroforestry as a zoning adaptation strategy.

关键词： Adaptation Agroforestry Cashew Climate change Mann-Kendall test rainfall variability Sen’s slope test

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