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Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2017年第4期5卷 258-264页

作者： Christofer Kristo Harianto Rahardjo Alfrendo Satyanaga School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Nanyang Technological UniversityHall of Residence 9Block 46#04-867Singapore 639811Singapore School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Nanyang Technological UniversityBlk N150 Nanyang AvenueSingapore 639798Singapore

Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change.One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns,which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface.A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures.This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability.Singapore's historical rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 were obtained and analysed by duration using linear regression.A general increasing trend was observed in both weather stations,with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events,despite being statistically insignificant according to the Mann-Kendall test.Using the derived trends,projected rainfall intensities in 2050 and 2100 were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses performed on a typical residual soil slope in Singapore.A significant reduction in factor of safety was observed in the next 50 years,with only a marginal decrease in factor of safety in the subsequent 50 years.This indicates a possible detrimental effect of variations in rainfall patterns on slope stability in Singapore,especially in the next 50 years.The statistical analyses on rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 indicated that rainfall intensity tend to increase over the years,with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events in the future.The stability analyses showed a significant decrease in factor of safety from 2003 to 2050 due to increase in rainfall intensity,suggesting that a climate change might have existed beyond 2009 with possibly detrimental effects to slope stability.

关键词： Climate change rainfall Seepage Slope stability

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DYNAMICAL PREDICTION OF WEST CHINA AUTUMN rainfall BY THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第1期25卷 114-128页

作者：董少柔杨崧张团团冯业荣 School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall(WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the WCAR.Output from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that,southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.

关键词： west China autumn rainfall NCEP CFSv2 prediction predictable patterns

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Impacts of water quality variation and rainfall runoff on Jinpen Reservoir,in Northwest China

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Water Science and Engineering 2015年第4期8卷 301-308页

作者： Zi-zhen Zhou Ting-lin Huang Wei-xing Ma Yang Li Kang Zeng School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology

The seasonal variation characteristics of the water quality of the Jinpen Reservoir and the impacts of rainfall runoff on the reservoir were investigated. Water quality monitoring results indicated that, during the stable stratification period, the maximum concentrations of total ni- trogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, iron ion, and manganese ion in the water at the reservoir bottom on September 6 reached 2.5 mg/L, 0.12 mg/L, 0.58 mg/L, 3.2 mg/L, 0.97 mg/L, and 0.32 rag/L, respectively. Only heavy storm runoff can affect the main reservoir and cause the water quality to seriously deteriorate. During heavy storms, the stratification of the reservoir was destroyed, and the reservoir water quality consequently deteriorated due to the high-turbidity particulate phosphorus and organic matter in runoff. The turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus and total organic carbon in the main reservoir increased to 265 NTU, 0.224 mg/L, and 3.9 mg/L, respectively. Potential methods of dealing with the water problems in the Jinpen Reservoir are proposed. Both in stratification and in storm periods, the use of measures such as adjusting intake height, storing clean water, and releasing turbid flow can be helpful to safeguarding the quality of water supplied to the water treatment plants.

关键词： Water quality Seasonal variation rainfall Impact of storm runoff Intake height adjustment

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Extreme rainfall and flooding from Hurricane Florence

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2020年第3期9卷 172-177页

作者： Jeff Callaghan Bureau of Meteorology BrisbaneAustralia

Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach,North Carolina,around 1115 UTC 14 September as a weakening Category 1 hurricane(on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).Its slow movement through North and South Carolina resulted in extreme rainfall totals and major flooding making it the ninth-most-destructive hurricane to affect the United States.The structure of Florence is examined using microwave data,radiosonde observations and rainfall registrations to identify the processes along with its slow movement which caused the extreme rainfall.Two major processes were identified with initially,intense thunderstorms driven by strong buoyancy with some dynamic uplift,generated such rainfall while following landfall larger scale ascent with winds turned in an anticyclonic direction with height,appeared to be the principal cause of the heavy rainfall.

关键词： rainfall Slow movement Buoyancy Ascent

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A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS AND THERMODYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS OF TWO TYPES OF WARMSECTOR HEAVY rainfall ALONG THE SOUTH CHINA COAST

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 494-507页

作者：苗春生杨艺亚王坚红李萍 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST) Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Marine Sciences NUIST Liaoning Meteorological Observatory

Warm-sector heavy rainfalls along the south China coast from April to June during 2009-2014 can be divided into two main types based on their low-level circulations. Type I is the southerly pattern with meridional convergence line at the west of the Pearl River estuary, which is formed by the convergence of southeasterly, southerly, and southwesterly flows. Type II is the southwesterly pattern with a latitudinal convergence line at the east of the Pearl River estuary, which is formed by the convergence of westerly and southwesterly flows. Statistics on 6-hourly heavy rainfall events indicates that, during the afore-mentioned 6 years, there were on average 73.2 occurrences of the southerly pattern and 50.3 occurrences of the southwesterly pattern per year. After the onset of summer monsoon in the South China Sea, the occurrence frequencies of both patterns increase remarkably. The synthetic diagnosis of pattern circulation shows that, at 500 h Pa, for the southerly pattern, there is a broad warm high ridge, and a temperature ridge is behind the high ridge, which causes an obvious warm advection at the high ridge area. There is no frontal region. For the southwesterly pattern, the circulation is a weak trough with a temperature trough behind it. The position of the frontal region is near Yangzi River, and the south China coast is in the warm-sector of the frontal region. At the vertical cross-section of each of the two categories of heavy rainfall, there is a strong vertical motion center stretching to 400 hPa, where the convergence layer in the rainfall region is deep and with several vertical convergence centers overlapping one another. Both types of heavy rainfalls are with abundant water vapor, accompanied with deep convective instability energy layers, and with strong release of latent heat caused by condensation of water vapor. The release of latent heat leads to the warming-up and stretching of the air column, thus strengthens deep convergence and vertical velocity upward. There is a stronger latent heat-rel

关键词： warm-sector heavy rainfall the convergence line at low level thermodynamic developing mechanism numerical simulation latent heat

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Tanzanian rainfall responses to El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events during 1951-2015

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 41-47页

作者： Dickson Mbigi Ziniu Xiao State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Department of Physics University of Dar es SalaamDar es SalaamTanzania

The relative impacts of Indian and Pacific Ocean processes on Tanzanian rainfall was evaluated using composite and correlation analyses.It was found that the seasonal responses of rainfall to positive Indian Ocean Dipole(pIOD)and El Nino events are substantial from September-October-November(SON)to December-January-February(DJF),whereas the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)exerts more control than El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in both seasons.The associated relationship with the sea surface temperature(SST)and large-scale atmo-spheric circulations revealed distinct features.For the pure pIOD years,there is above-normal rainfall over the entire country.A strong rainfall condition is evident over the Lake Victoria basin and coastal and northeastern highland parts of the country during SON,while areas of the central and southern highlands exhibit substantial rains during DJF.For the pure El-Nino events,Tanzania has suffered from insignificant,weak,and non-coherent rainfall conditions during SON.However,a contrasting insignificant rainfall signature is found between the north-ern and southern parts of the country during the subsequent DJF season.For the co-occurrence of pIOD and El Nino,significant,excessive rainfall conditions are restricted to over the northern coast and northeastern areas of the country during SON,consistent with the rainfall pattern for pIOD.A weak,positive rainfall condition is observed over the entire country in the following season of DJF.Generally,in terms of Tanzanian rainfall,the IOD/ENSO variability and the associated impacts can be explained by the anomalous SST and circulation anomalies.

关键词： rainfall Indian Ocean Dipole El Nino Tanzania

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Evaluating the suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall data for hydrological simulation using a distributed hydrological model in the Weihe River catchment in China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第2期25卷 177-195页

作者： ZHAO Haigen State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University and the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100875 China Research Center for Remote Sensing and GIS Beijing Key Laboratory for Remote Sensing of Environment and Digital Cities School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China South China Institute of Environmental Sciences MEP Guangzhou 510655 China

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） data with rain gauge data and further to use this TRMM data to drive a Dis- tributed Time-Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） to perform hydrological simulations in the semi-humid Weihe River catchment in China. Before the simulations, a comparison with a 10-year （2001-2010） daily rain gauge data set reveals that, at daily time step, TRMM rainfall data are better at capturing rain occurrence and mean values than rainfall extremes. On a monthly time scale, good linear relationships between TRMM and rain gauge rainfall data are found, with determination coefficients R2 varying between 0.78 and 0.89 for the individual stations. Subsequent simulation results of seven years （2001-2007） of data on daily hydro- logical processes confirm that the DTVGM when calibrated by rain gauge data performs better than when calibrated by TRMM data, but the performance of the simulation driven by TRMM data is better than that driven by gauge data on a monthly time scale. The results thus suggest that TRMM rainfall data are more suitable for monthly streamfiow simulation in the study area, and that, when the effects of recalibration and the results for water balance components are also taken into account, the TRMM 3B42-V7 product has the potential to perform well in similar basins.

关键词： rainfall TRMM distributed hydrological model DTVGM hydrological simulation Weihe River catchment

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Deformation and failure mechanism of Yanjiao rock slope influenced by rainfall and water level fluctuation of the Xiluodu hydropower station reservoir

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第1期20卷 1-14页

作者： Wang Neng-feng He Jian-xian DU Xiao-xiang Cai Bin Zhao Jian-jun POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited Chengdu610072China School of Civil Engineering Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu610031China State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Chengdu University of TechnologyChengdu610059China

With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slope which is located on the left bank of the Jinsha River 75 km upstream of the Xiluodu dam site,began to deform in 2014.The potential failure of the slope not only threatens Yanjiao town but also affects the safe operation of the Xiluodu reservoir.This paper is to find the factors influencing the Yanjiao slope deformation through field investigation,geotechnical reconnaissance,and monitoring.Results show that the Yanjiao slope can be divided into a bank collapse area(BCA)and a strong deformation area(SDA)based on the crack distribution characteristics of the slope.The rear area of the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation with a maximum cumulative displacement(GPS monitoring point G4)of 505 mm and 399 mm in the horizontal and vertical directions,respectively.The potential failure surface of the slope is formed 36 m below the surface based on the borehole inclinometer.The bank collapses of the Yanjiao slope are directly caused by the reservoir impoundment while the deformation area of the slope is affected by the combination of the rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation.Based on mechanism of the Yanjiao slope,prestressed anchor combined with the surface drainage and slope unloading are recommended to prevent potential deformation.

关键词： Reservoir rock slope rainfall Reservoir water level fluctuation Deformation characteristics Slope failure mechanism

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A Diagnostic Study of the Asymmetric Distribution of rainfall during the Landfall of Typhoon Haitang(2005)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第10期32卷 1419-1430页

作者： YUE Caijun GAO Shouting LIU Lu LI Xiaofan Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University

The precipitation during landfall of typhoon Haitang （2005） showed asymmetric structures （left side/right side of the track）. Analysis of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation data showed that rainfall on the right side was more than 15 times stronger than on the left side. The causes were analyzed by focusing on comparing the water vapor flux, stability and upward motion between the two sides. The major results were as follows：（1） Relative humidity on both sides was over 80%, whereas the convergence of water vapor flux in the lower troposphere was about 10 times larger on the right side than on the left side. （2） Both sides featured conditional symmetric instability [MPV （moist potential vorticity）〈0], but the right side was more unstable than the left side. （3） Strong （weak） upward motion occurred throughout the troposphere on the right （left） side. The Q vector diagnosis suggested that large-scale and mesoscale forcing accounted for the difference in vertical velocity. Orographic lift and surface friction forced the development of the asymmetric precipitation pattern. On the right side, strong upward motion from the forcing of different scale weather systems and topography caused a substantial release of unstable energy and the transportation of water vapor from the lower to the upper troposphere, which produced torrential rainfall. However, the above conditions on the left side were all much weaker, which led to weaker rainfall. This may have been the cause of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang.

关键词： landfall typhoon rainfall asymmetric distribution water vapor atmospheric stability vertical motion

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IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND rainfall IN EASTERN CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2016年第2期22卷 145-158页

作者：阙志萍吴凡毕晨龙余良李崇银 Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi Nanchang 330046 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China Meteorological College PLA University of Science and TechnologyNanjing 211101 China

The impact of strong(weak) intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over South China Sea(SCS) and South Asia(SA)in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010.It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer.The study shows that in June and July cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SCS.In August,however,strong(weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA.In June and August cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SA while a strong(weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic(cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July.Besides,in June the strong(weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS,while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak.The impacts of the strong(weak)ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July,which favors less(more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River.However,the impacts are not so apparent in August.In South Asia,the strong(weak) ISO in July results in less(more)rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin.The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.

关键词： ISO atmospheric circulation rainfall South China Sea and South Asia

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