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Differences in the rainfall Characteristics between Mount Tai and Its Surrounding Areas

Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第5期33卷 976-988页

作者： Yuting GAN Nina LI Jian LI Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration

As a typical small-scale, isolated topography, Mount Tai exhibits great differences in precipitation characteristics from the surrounding areas. It was found that the amount of rainfall occurring over Mount Tai is significantly larger than what is observed in the surrounding areas. Based on hourly rain gauge records for the warm season(May to September) of 1996–2015, differences between Mount Tai and its surrounding areas were further revealed in terms of rainfall diurnal variation, spatial scale, and evolution process. The diurnal variation of the enhancement on rainfall amount exhibit "dual peaks" occurring in the early morning and afternoon, and the dual peaks are mainly attributable to rainfall frequency. The diurnal phase of the rainfall amount in the surrounding areas lags 1 h behind that over Mount Tai. Regarding differences in rainfall spatial scale, compared to those of surrounding areas, precipitation over Mount Tai is characterized by a smaller coverage, especially in the early morning. Mount Tai also tends to have a kind of unique, small-scale rainfall in the afternoon and at night. Based on statistical analysis of precipitation events,differences in rainfall evolution process were identified as well. rainfall over Mount Tai often starts earlier in the afternoon and ends later at night than it does in the surrounding areas. Furthermore, nocturnal rainfall events over Mount Tai are prone to peaking over a shorter period and enduring for a longer period after reaching their maximum intensity, compared with nocturnal rainfall events occurring in the surrounding areas. rainfall events over Mount Tai always last longer, especially those occurring in the early morning. In general, Mount Tai has a large enhancement effect on rainfall.

关键词： rainfall differences diurnal variation rainfall evolution process isolated topography Mount Tai

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Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2019年第3期18卷 626-632页

作者： ZHU Zhihui HUANG Fei XIE Xiao Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center Shanghai 201306 China Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China Ningbo Collaborative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere Ningbo University Ningbo 315211 China

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.

关键词： ASI summer extreme rainfall prediction

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A SHORT NOTE ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND EXTREME rainfall ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LANE

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第2期8卷 109-113页

作者： Jeff Callaghan Retired Bureau of Meteorology

Hurricanes Lane intensified in the Central Pacific with data from reconnaissance aircraft indicating it reached category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale while moving closer to Hawaii. The cyclone weakened as it moved closer to the Hawaiian Islands with its closest approach at 1500UTC 25 August 2018 when 175 km south southwest of Honolulu with a central pressure of 995 hPa. The impact on Hawaii was mainly record rainfall and the structure of this weather system is examined here to show how the winds turning anticyclonically with height in the lower to middle level troposphere play a crucial role in the intensification of Hurricane Lane to category 5 intensity and the generation of extreme rainfall.

关键词： complete eyewall record rainfall floods

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Improvements in Long-Lead Prediction of Early-Summer Subtropical Frontal rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2019年第3期18卷 542-552页

作者： XING Wen HUANG Fei Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) Qingdao 266100 China Ningbo Collaborative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere Ningbo University Ningbo 315211 China

Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall(SFR) during early summer(May-June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice(ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index(SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations(1979-2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure(SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979-2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for the 1979-2010 period(0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall.

关键词： East Asia subtropical frontal rainfall long-lead seasonal prediction Arctic sea ice Physical-empirical model

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Spatial Pattern Difference of Contribution between Short and Long-duration Heavy rainfall to Total Heavy rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2019年第4期10卷 51-60页

作者： Kong Feng School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua University Center for Crisis Management Research Tsinghua University Center for Social Risk Assessment in China Tsinghua University

Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc.;brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area;become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk;and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China. When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours, that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short- duration heavy rainfall, while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall, on the spatial distribution, total rainfall, total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime, long-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "

关键词： Precipitation contribution Spatial difference Long and short-duration heavy rainfall Total heavy rainfall China

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The effects of rainfall regimes and rainfall characteristics on peak discharge in a small debris flow-prone catchment

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第7期16卷 1646-1660页

作者： WEI Zhen-lei SUN Hong-yue XU Hao-di WU Gang XIE Wei College of Civil Engineering and Architecture Zhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China Ocean College Zhejiang UniversityZhoushan 316021China

Peak discharge plays an important role in triggering channelized debris flows.The rainfall regimes and rainfall characteristics have been demonstrated to have important influences on peak discharge.In order to explore the relationship between rainfall regimes and peak discharge,a measuring system was placed at the outlet of a small,debris flow-prone catchment.The facility consisted of an approximately rectangular stilling basin,ending with a sharp-crested weir.Six runoff events were recorded which provided a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the debris flow-prone catchment.Then,a rainfall–runoff model was tested against the flow discharge measurements to have a deep understanding of hydrological response.Based on the calibrated rainfall-runoff model,twelve different artificially set rainfall patterns were regarded as the input parameters to investigate the effect of rainfall regimes on peak discharge.The results show that the rainfall patterns have a significant effect on peak discharge.The rainfall regimes which have higher peak rainfall intensity and peak rainfall point occur at the later part of rainfall process are easy to generate larger peak discharge in the condition of the same cumulative rainfall and duration.Then,in order to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and peak discharge under different cumulative precipitation and different duration,167 measured rainfall events were also collected.On the basis of rainfall depth,rainfall duration,and maximum hourly intensity,all the rainfall events were classified into four categories by using K-mean clustering.rainfall regime 1 was composed of rainfall events with a moderate mean P(precipitation),a moderate D(duration),and a moderate I60(maximum hourly intensity).rainfall regime 2 was the group of rainfall events with a high mean P,long D.rainfall regime 3,however,had a low P and a long D.The characteristic of rainfall regime 4 was high I60 and short duration with large P.The results show that the rainfall

关键词： Debris flow rainfall regimes rainfall characteristics Peak discharge rainfall-runoff model

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Stability characteristics of shallow landslide triggered by rainfall

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第9期16卷 2171-2183页

作者： Avirut CHINKULKIJNIWAT Taworn TIRAMETATIPARAT Chanathip SUPOTAYAN Somjai YUBONCHIT Suksun HORPIBULSUK Rattana SALEE Panich VOOTTIPRUEX School of Civil Engineering Center of Excellence in Civil Engineering Institute of Engineering Suranaree University of Technology Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Thailand Department of Civil Engineering Rajamangala University of Technology Isan Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Thailand Department of Teacher Training in Civil Engineering King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok 10800 Thailand

rainfall induced shallow landslides are known to be extremely dangerous since the sliding mass can propagate quickly and travel far from the source. Although the sliding mechanism in sloping ground is simple to understand, the problem may be complicated by unsaturated transient water flow. The flow behavior of rainwater in unsaturated sloping ground and the consequent factor of safety must be clearly understood to assess slope stability under rainfall conditions. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to examine the critical hydrological states so that assessment of slope stability under rainfall condition can be performed. Based on the test results, a unique relationship between critical hydrological states, rainfall intensity, and soil properties was formulated. Sequential stability analysis provided insights into the stability of slopes subjected to variations in soil properties, slope angles and rainfall intensities, and the consequent variation in the depth of the failure plane, vital in landslide risk assessment, was determined through this analysis.The variation of rainfall intensity was found to strongly affect the depth of the failure plane in cohesionless sloping ground. Furthermore, the influence of rainfall intensity on the depth of the failure plane may be alleviated by a small magnitude of cohesive strength. The results of this study will reinforce knowledge of landslide behavior and help to improve mitigation measures in susceptible areas.

关键词： Shallow landslides rainfall Failure depth

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rainfall Prediction Model Improvement by Fuzzy Set Theory

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2013年第1期5卷 1-11页

作者： Mahbub Hasan Xingzhong (Frank) Shi Teferi Tsegaye Nesar U. Ahmed Salam Md. Mahbubush Khan College of Agriculture Food Sciences and Sustainable Systems Kentucky State University Frankfort USA Department of Civil Engineering Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University Normal USA Department of Mathematics Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University Normal USA Department of Computer Science Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University Normal USA

This paper presents the improvement of the fuzzy inference model primarily developed for predicting rainfall with data from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) Station at the Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (AAMU) Campus for the year 2004. The primary model was developed with Fuzzy variables selected based on the degree of association of different factors with various combinations causing rainfall. An increase in wind speed (WS) and a decrease in temperature (TP) when compared between the ith and (i-1)th day were found to have a positive relation with rainfall. Results of the model showed better performance after introducing the threshold values of 1) relative humidity (RH) of the ith day;2) humidity increase (HI) when compared between the ith and (i-1)th day;and 3) product (P) of increase in wind speed (WS) and decrease in temperature (TP) when compared between the ith and (i-1)th day. In case of the improved model, errors between actual and calculated amount of rainfall (RF) were 1.20%, 2.19%, and 9.60% when using USDA-SCAN data from AAMU campus for years 2003, 2004 and 2005, respectively. The improved model was tested at William A. Thomas Agricultural Research Station (WTARS) and Bragg farm in Alabama to check the applicability of the model. The errors between the actual and calculated amount of rainfall (RF) were 3.20%, 5.90%, and 1.66% using USDA-SCAN data from WATARS for years 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively. Similarly, errors were 10.37%, 11.69%, and 25.52% when using SCAN data from Bragg farm for years 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The primary model yielded the value of error equals 12.35% using USDA- SCAN data from AAMU campus for 2004. The present model performance was proven to be better than the primary model.

关键词： Fuzzy Sets Prediction rainfall Water Resources

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rainfall infiltration on hilly slopes under various lithology and its effect on tree growth in the dry-hot valley

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中国科学：技术科学英文版 2003年第Z1期46卷 110-119页

作者： YANG Zhong, XIONG Donghong, ZHOU Hongyi & ZHANG Xinbao Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Mt Hazards & Environm Chengdu 610041 Peoples R China Minist Water Resources Chengdu 610041 Peoples R China

Revegetation is very difficult in dry-hot valleys in China. rainfall infiltration capability on hilly slopes is one of the key factors determining soil moisture conditions and tree growth in the dry-hot valley. Low rainfall infiltration often results in soil drought on slopes under the dry-hot valleys climate. rainfall infiltration capability varies greatly with the difference of slope lithologic porosity. The infiltration rates of five lithologic slope-types, Schist Slope, Grit Slope, Gravel Slope, the slightly eroded Mudstone Slope and the intensively eroded Mudstone Slope, are 1.40-8.67, 6.33, 0.69-2.20, 0.6-1.3 and 0.03-0.63 mm/min, respectively. With its viscid compact soil body and low infiltration capability which causes little infiltrating rainfall, mudstone slope can afford little effective supply to soil water and leads to serious drought of soil in dry seasons, resulting in cessation of growth or even wide-spread death of trees due to physiological damage for the excessive deficit of water in dry season and also the low productivity of stands. Hence, it is extremely difficult to restore vegetation on this type of slope. The other four lithologic slope-types, however, with well-developed soil crevice, high infiltration capability and thus more infiltrating rainfall, can afford more available soil water supply and the trees on them can obtain better growth and relatively higher productivity, compared with those on Mudstone Slope. Revegetation in dry-hot valleys is controlled by the soil moisture conditions of different slope-types, and it can be implemented by relying on the dominative life-form plant species, the suitable spatial arrangement of different life-forms of arbor-shrub-herb species, and the establishment of ecological community relationship between vegetation and soil moisture in habits. On the other hand, ground making measures for forestation and the runoff-collecting engineering measures to increase the rainfall infiltration are the major keys of revegetation techniques in dry-hot valleys.

关键词： dry-hot valleys, lithologic property, rainfall infiltration, tree growth.

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Predicted pattern of Zika virus infection distribution with reference to rainfall in Thailand

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2016年第7期9卷 698-699页

作者： Somsri Wiwanitkit Viroj Wiwanitkit Wiwanitkit House Hainan Medical University

Zika virus infection is the present global medical problem.The disease appears in several countries around the world.The relationship between rainfall and occurrence of Zika virus infection was previously mentioned.Here,the authors use the mathematical modeling technique to reappraise on the previous data on immunoreactivity rate of Zika virus,dengue virus and Ckikungunya virus in Thailand and the reported interrelationship between arboviral infections and rainfall in Thailand for constructing of the predicted pattern of Zika virus distribution in Thailand.This data can be a useful tool for further disease surveillance in this area.

关键词： Zika virus Infection rainfall

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