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prospect theory and the Newsvendor Problem with Mental Accounting

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2020年第5期29卷 525-536页

作者： Bojun Gu Xiang Zhang School of Economics and Management Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing Beijing 100081China

The manner in which economic outcomes are coded in a value function is critical because it has substantial influence on the evaluation of risky choices.In this paper,we formulate multiple mental accounts in a nonlinear value function and propose a newsvendor problem with mental accounting to predict and explain pull-to-center phenomenon.We show that the distinctive predictions of the proposed model come from the value function with mental accounting.We identify the individual and combined effects of loss aversion,risk aversion,and risk seeking on shaping newsvendor ordering behavior.Our work demonstrates that prospect theory can explain the decision bias and ordering behavior observed in newsvendor experiments.We also provide some additional insights to explain the studies in the literature.

关键词： prospect theory mental accounting newsvendor problem decision bias pull-to-center phenomenon

prospect theory Based Hesitant Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Low Sulphur Fuel of Maritime Transportation

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2021年第2期66卷 1511-1528页

作者： Changli Lu Ming Zhao Imran Khan Peerapong Uthansakul School of Economics and Management Shanghai Maritime UniversityShanghai201306China School of Economics and Management Pingdingshan UniversityPingdingshan467000China Department of Electrical Engineering University of Engineering and TechnologyPeshawarPakistan School of Telecommunication Engineering Suranaree University of TechnologyNakhonratchasimaThailand

The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.

关键词： Maritime transport prospect theory hesitant fuzzy sets multi-criteria decision making maximizing deviation method euclidean distance

EXTENSION OF THE TOPSIS METHOD BASED ON prospect theory AND TRAPEZOIDAL INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY NUMBERS FOR GROUP DECISION MAKING

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2014年第2期23卷 231-247页

作者： Xihua LI Xiaohong CHEN School of Business Central South University

Considering the decision maker＇s risk psychological factors and information ambiguity under uncertainty, a novel TOPSIS based on prospect theory （PT） and trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers （YrIFNs） for group decision making is investigated, in which the criteria values and the criteria weights take the form of TrIFNs, and weights of decision makers are unknown. Firstly, distance measures for TrIFNs are used to induce value function under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment. Secondly, the concepts of distance measures and trapezoidal intuitionistie fuzzy weighted averaging operator are employed to induce the weights of decision makers and thus the decision makers＇ options can be aggregated. Then the PT-based separation measures and relative closeness coefficient are defined and an algorithm for ranking alternatives under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment is proposed. Finally, a numerical example further illustrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed TOPSIS method.

关键词： TOPSIS trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers prospect theory group decision making distance measures

Evaluation of the Effect of China’s Health Care Reform Based on prospect theory

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Asian Journal of Social Pharmacy 2022年第1期17卷 1-10页

作者： Guan Yueyue Huang Zhe School of Business Administration Shenyang Pharmaceutical UniversityShenyang 110016China

Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China Health Statistics Yearbook”and National Bureau of Statistics of China and the indicators were selected by corrected item total correlation(CITC)and Cronbach’sαreliability coefficient.Then,the selected indicators were calculated through the prospect theory model.Meanwhile,the gray relation analysis method was introduced to enlarge the differences between the advantages and disadvantages to make the comprehensive evaluation result more obvious.Results and Conclusion The implementation of China’s health care reform has a significant impact on China’s medical and health system.However,the effect of the policy will become less with the increase of the total amount.An effective management can ensure that the policy continues to play its role.

关键词： new health reform prospect theory policy evaluation

A Note on“prospect theory and the Newsvendor Problem”

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Journal of the Operations Research Society of China 2015年第1期3卷 89-94页

作者： Xiao-Bo Zhao Wei Geng Department of Industrial Engineering Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of Economics and Management Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu 610031China

Based on the newsvendor setting,many behavioral models are proposed to predict the biases of decision makers in inventory management.Recently,Nagarajan and Shechter(Manag Sci 60:1057–1062,2014)claimed that prospect theory cannot explain the consistent empirical findings.However,it is noticed that their model is a special case of the general prospect theorymodel.In this note,we showthat the general prospect theory model may be powerful in predicting the preferences of decision makers in inventory management.

关键词： Newsvendor problem prospect theory Reference point

Research on China’s Food Industry Security early Warning Based on prospect theory

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Research on China’s Food Industry Security early Warning Ba...

Three-Way Behavioral Decision Making With Hesitant Fuzzy Information Systems:Survey and Challenges

第26届中国控制与决策会议

作者： Kangning Zheng Kai Yang Beijing Jiaotong University

Problem of grain supply and demand is an important problem,one of the focuses of China,especially the problem of grain supply and demand for the country’s economic development,political stability and social progress are of very important significance.Based on prospect theory this article studies the problem of China’s food supply and demand,to build the prediction model of grain supply and demand prospect theory.And this paper uses the GM（1,1）model to verify validity of the building model,this article constructs a model of grain supply and demand can be more accurate for the country’s grain supply and demand for scientific forecast.

关键词： prospect theory GM（1,1） model Supply and Demand model Regression Analysis

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2023年第2期10卷 330-350页

作者： Jianming Zhan Jiajia Wang Weiping Ding Yiyu Yao the School of Mathematics and Statistics Hubei Minzu UniversityEnshi 445000China Xidian University Xi’an 710126China IEEE the School of Computer Science and Technology Nantong UniversityNantong 226019China the Department of Computer Science University of ReginaRegina S4S 0A2Canada

Three-way decision(T-WD)theory is about thinking,problem solving,and computing in threes.Behavioral decision making(BDM)focuses on effective,cognitive,and social processes employed by humans for choosing the optimal object,of which prospect theory and regret theory are two widely used tools.The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS)captures a series of uncertainties when it is difficult to specify precise fuzzy membership grades.Guided by the principles of three-way decisions as thinking in threes and integrating these three topics together,this paper reviews and examines advances in three-way behavioral decision making(TW-BDM)with hesitant fuzzy information systems(HFIS)from the perspective of the past,present,and future.First,we provide a brief historical account of the three topics and present basic formulations.Second,we summarize the latest development trends and examine a number of basic issues,such as one-sidedness of reference points and subjective randomness for result values,and then report the results of a comparative analysis of existing methods.Finally,we point out key challenges and future research directions.

关键词： Hesitant fuzzy information system(HFIS) prospect theory regret theory three-way decision(T-WD)

Optimization of Group Multiattribute Decision-Making Model in Commercial Space Investment

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Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science) 2023年第6期28卷 831-840页

作者：张一鸣侯俊杰钟少文 China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering Beijing 100048China China Great Wall Industry Corporation Beijing 100054China

A group multiattribute decision-making model was proposed by implementing prospect theory,multi-attribute decision-making,group decision-making and entropy methods for the optimization in commercial space investment.First,the decision-making function was decided using prospect theory by the preference of each expert to reach the comprehensive prospect value based on different investment options;second,expert decision weights were reached according to entropy method;third,the expert group decision-making information was congregated according to the group decision-making congregation algorithm to reach the most optimized investment option;finally,an example was given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.This model com-prehensively takes the advantages of many methods to congregate experts'experiences and avoid the subjective influences,thus providing a scientific decision-making approach for the commercial space investment.

关键词： commercial space investment multiattribute decision-making group decision-making prospect theory entropy theory

Thinking of peace when rich:The effect of industry growth on corporate risk-taking

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China Journal of Accounting Research 2022年第2期15卷 25-49页

作者： Xiangting Kong Jinsong Tan Jingxin Zhang Sun Yat-sen University School of BusinessGuangzhouGuangdongChina South China Agricultural University College of Economics and ManagementGuangzhouGuangdongChina Sun Yat-sen University Center for Accounting Finance and InstitutionsGuangzhouGuangdongChina

We investigate the unique role and mechanisms of industry growth in firms’risk-taking policies.We find that industry growth is negatively associated with corporate risk-taking,consistent with the prospect theory that a high-growth industry gives firms a superior external environment,which may cause them to refrain from corporate risk-taking as in the saying“thinking of peace when rich.”This correlation is stronger for product market leaders,industries encouraged by industry policies and industries that receive more government support.Firms reduce risk-taking through various corporate policies,including long-term,high-value investments,operational efficiency and cash holdings in response to high industry growth.Overall,our results are consistent with industry growth negatively affecting corporate risk-taking.

关键词： Industry growth Risk-taking prospect theory Corporate policies