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probabilistic description of extreme oscillations and reliability analysis in rolling motion under stochastic excitation

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2023年第9期66卷 2586-2596页

作者： ZHAO Dan LI YongGe XU Yong LIU Qi KURTHS Jürgen School of Mathematics and Statistics Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China MOE Key Laboratory for Complexity Science in Aerospace Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Physics Humboldt University BerlinBerlin 12489Germany

Large-amplitude rolling motions, also regarded as extreme oscillations, are a great threat to marine navigation, which may lead to capsizing in ship motion. Therefore, it is important to quantify extreme oscillations, assess reliability of ship systems, and establish a suitable indicator to characterize extreme oscillations in ship systems. In this work, extreme events are investigated in a ship model considering a complex ocean environment, described by a single-degree-of-freedom nonlinear system with stochastic harmonic excitation and colored Gaussian noise. The stationary probability density function(PDF) of the system is derived through a probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method. Based on this, we infer the classical damage rate of the system. Furthermore, a new indicator, independent of the PDF, is proposed to quantify the damage related only to the fourth-order moment of the system and the threshold for extreme events. It is more universal and easier to determine as compared with the classical damage rate. A large damping ratio, a large noise intensity, or a short correlation time can reduce the damage rate and the value of the *** findings provide new insights and theoretical guidance to avoid extreme oscillations and assess the reliability of practical ship movements.

关键词： rolling motion colored noise extreme oscillations reliability probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method

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