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Determinants of private Sector Indebtedness in Greece： The Role of Deregulation

Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing 2011年第1期7卷 76-85页

作者： Demosthenes Georgopoulos Theodore Papadogonas George Sfakianakis Ministry of Economy Competitiveness and Shipping Greece Technological Educational Institute of Chalkis Greece Ministry of Finance and Technological Educational Institute of Chalkis Greece

In this paper we examine private debt developments in Greece from 1970 onwards. We find private debt nearly stationary for about 20 years （starting from extremely low values） and expanding thereafter in nearly explosive terms. By disaggregating the time series of private debt, we pinpoint household debt （consumer, credit cards and mortgages） as the reason for this exponential increase. When considering demand and supply curves for household debt, shifts of the curves are to be interpreted： explanations from the demand side include, among others, expectations of future incomes. Regarding the supply side, the availability of loans （partly attributable to increased bank competition） and overall bank deregulation are proposed. Financial deregulation permitted banks to move promptly and offer to ambitious （but not necessarily solvent） customers a wide spectrum of choices： mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans and so on. Every single step in the process of financial deregulation was accompanied by a higher level of household indebtedness. Moving up from the household level to the macroeconomic level, increased debt had been also a solution to stalling effective demand, possibly due to the redistribution of income. Empirical analysis and causality tests are conducted along these lines and we find a two way causal relationship between GDP growth and private debt.

关键词： private debt household debt. deregulation structural break

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