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prediction.of efficient outputs based on GM(1,N) model and weak DEA efficiency

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2011年第6期22卷 933-939页

作者： Jiefang Wang Sifeng Liu College of Economics and Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing 210016 P. R. China College of Management and Economics North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power Zhengzhou 450000 E R. China

This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n ＋ 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM（1,N） model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction.method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given.

关键词： efficient outputs GM（1 N） model data envelopment analysis（DEA） weak DEA efficiency prediction.

A new method for spatio-temporal prediction.of rainfall-induced landslide

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Science China Earth Sciences 2006年第4期49卷 421-430页

作者： DING Jixin1,2, YANG Zhifa2, SHANG Yanjun2, ZHOU Shenghua1 & YIN Juntao3 1. China Non-ferrous Metals Resource Geological Survey, Beijing 100012, China 2. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Beijing 100029, China 3. School of Geoscience & Environmental Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China China Non-ferrous Metals Resource Geological Survey Beijing China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics Beijing China School of Geoscience & Environmental Engineering Central South University Changsha China

Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction.of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the “landslide probability judgement factor” can be worked out through grading and overlapping “geological condition influenc- ing factor” and “rainfall influencing factor”, by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction.of rain- fall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction.of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of “two factors” grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

关键词： rainfall-induced landslide, geological condition, rainfall, two factors, grading and overlapping, interactive matrix, spatio-temporal prediction.

prediction.of Apparent Equivalent Thickness Using the Spontaneous Potential Method and Its Application to Oilfield Development

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Journal of China University of Geosciences 2007年第3期18卷 269-279页

作者：王君恒潘竹平孙树文郭雷 State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources Geo-detection Laboratory Ministry of Education School of Geophysics and Information Technology China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China The No.6 Institute of Shandong Geo-exploration Bureau Department of Earth Sciences Nanjing University

The upper spontaneous potential produced by oil and gas accumulation is of a stable potential field, and its intensity is directly proportional to the content of the source and inversely proportional to the radius apart from the source. Theoretical research and practical results show that anomalies of spontaneous potential can indicate oil-bearing sandstone bodies and locate the areas of oil and gas accumulation. In oil areas which have fewer reservoir beds, the petroleum reservoir thickness can be predicted by determining the linear relationship between potential intensity and apparent equivalent thickness. In the Weixing （卫星） oilfield, which is devoid of sufficient reservoir beds, its apparent equivalent thickness can be predicted by the linear equation h= -0.19x＋0.74. On the basis of geological research, we use the spontaneous potential method to predict the equivalent thickness, helping in the selection of the most appropriate drill sites to enhance the probability of successful well boring so as to serve the next round development of the oilfield.

关键词： oil and gas accumulation equivalent thickness prediction.

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO_2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature's trend prediction

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Science China Earth Sciences 2004年第Z1期47卷 131-141页

作者： LI Dongliang, QUO Hui, WANG Wen & WEI LiCold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000, China Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China Cold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Science Lanzhou China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above prediction. ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.

关键词： Qinghai-Xizang railway, annual mean air temperature, sunspot cycle length (SCL), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), prediction.

THE EXPERIMENTS OF SEASONAL prediction.USING THE ANALOGY-DYNAMICAL MODEL

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Science China Chemistry 1992年第2期35卷 207-216页

作者：黄建平王绍武 Department of Geophysics Peking University Beijing 100871 PRC

From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal prediction.. All of the prediction. were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year prediction. show certain skill in seasonal prediction. and the skill scores of prediction.are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.

关键词： analogy forecast long-range numerical prediction statistic-dynamical prediction.

A NEW MODEL OF FROST HEAVE prediction.FOR CLAYEY SOILS

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Science China Chemistry 1991年第10期34卷 1225-1236页

作者：陈肖柏王雅卿 Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology & Geocryology Academia Sinica Lanzhou 730000 PRC

After analysing the results of systematic experimental research on frost susceptibility tests, a new frost heave prediction.model, including the heave ratio η and rate R, is first proposed in this paper. Six main factors influencing frost heave are considered: initial water content W, initial dry unit weight γd, frost penetration rate Vf, groundwater level Hw, plasticity index Ip and ion content S. The model could be expressed by: η= B0WB1γBd2VB31·exp(B4Hw)exp(B5Ip)exp(B6S) and R = B’0WB’1γB’2dexp(B’3Hw)exp(B’4Ip)exp(B’5S) with a good reliability, where B0 to B6 and B’0 to B’5 are the characteristic constants of clayey soils. The effect of each factor on frost susceptibility of soils is discussed also.

关键词： frost susceptibility frost heave ratio frost heave rate frost heave prediction.

Fast satellite prediction.for four-axis telescopes

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 1996年第5期39卷 526-534页

作者：林钦畅 Guangzhou Satellite Station Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510640China

The features of the method are as follows: Adopting an optimum average small arc to four-axis prediction.the azimuth and altitude of the tracking axis need not be adjusted during the same observation procedure.The prediction.has been used for three different types of telescopes for many years and all demands of users have been satisfied.In this method,the prediction.contents were more than others.Separating the unknowns,the actual equations for operation were concise,and the needed machine time was much less,even for the prediction.of multistation.

关键词： separating the unknowns one-dimension coordinate fast four-axis prediction.

Dissolved oxygen prediction.in prawn ponds from a group of one step predictors

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Information Processing in Agriculture 2020年第2期7卷 307-317页

作者： Ashfaqur Rahman Joel Dabrowski John McCulloch Data61 CSIROAustralia

In this paper we have presented a novel approach to predict dissolved oxygen in prawn ponds.It is necessary to maintain dissolved oxygen above a certain level in the ponds for expected growth and survival of the prawns.An accurate prediction.of dissolved oxygen can assist farmers to take necessary measures to maintain dissolved oxygen levels ideal for prawn growth.Existing approaches to dissolved oxygen prediction.performs well on short term,however incurs high error on long term prediction.We propose a new approach where a group of predictors are developed where each model predicts a certain time stamps ahead.Each predictor is trained on sampled data so that it predicts a step ahead prediction.only,however,the sampling process decides on the actual number of time stamp ahead prediction.Since step ahead predictor acts like a short term predictor,it incurs small error even at higher time stamp ahead prediction.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves significantly lower error on long term prediction.compared to other existing approaches.

关键词： prediction. prediction maintain

Mechanism of Secondary Pore Formation and prediction.of Favorable Reservoir of Paleogene in Jiyang Sag, Eastern China

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Journal of China University of Geosciences 2008年第6期19卷 675-684页

作者：朱筱敏陈欢庆钟大康张琴张善文吕希学 State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting China University of Petroleum Shengli Oilfield Company SINOPEC

Jiyang （济阳） sag is an oil rich basin, consisting of Huimin （惠民）, Dongying （东营）, Zhanhua （沾化）, and Chezhen （车镇） depressions. The clastic rock of Paleogene has undergone early and middle diagenetic stages and now the main clastic reservoir is in the middle diagenetic stage. Primary and secondary pores are developed in Paleogene sandstone, the latter is generated from the dissolution of feldspar and calcite cement in rocks owing to the organic acid from the maturated source rock, but the materials dissolved are different in different depressions. The reservoir secondary pores of Dongying depression are generated from the dissolution of calcite cement, the ones of Zhanhua and Huimin depressions from the dissolution of feldspar, the secondary pores of Chezhen depression from the dissolution of feldspar in upper section, and the dissolution of calcite cement in the lower section of Paleogene, respectively. The secondary pores are developed in two depths and the depth goes down from west to east, from south to north in Jiyang sag. The major controlling factors for secondary pore development are maturity and location of source rock. Lastly, the favorable reservoirs are evaluated according to reservoir buried depth, sedimentation, and diagenesis. The reservoir with high quality is located in the northern and central parts in Dongying depression; there are some good reservoirs in Gudao （孤岛）, Gudong （孤东）, and Gunan （孤南） areas in Zhanhua depression, and the favorable reservoirs are located in the north steep slope and the south gentle slope of Chezhen depression and central uplift, south gentle slope of Huimin depression.

关键词： Jiyang sag Paleogene secondary pore mechanism prediction.