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Climatic response of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width and precipitation reconstruction for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, since 1720

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2014年第6期6卷 546-555页

作者： TongWen Zhang YuJiang Yuan WenShou Wei RuiBo Zhang ShuLong Yu Feng Chen HuaMing Shang Li Qin ZiAng Fan Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology of Uighur Autonomous Region

August-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to AD 1720 for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, by use ofPinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 39% in observed precipitation from 1973 to 2008. Some extremely dry/wet signals in historical documents and other precipitation reconstructions in previous studies are precisely captured in our reconstruction. Wet periods occurred during the periods of 1730 to 1746, 1789 to 1812, 1844 to 1903, 1920 to 1930, 1942 to 1961, and 1985 to 1998; while periods of 1747 to 1788, 1813 to 1843, 1904 to 1919, 1931 to 1941, and 1962 to 1984 were relatively dry. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demon- strated the existence of significant 24-year, 12-year, and 2-year cycles of variability.

关键词： Greater Higgnan Mountains Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width precipitation reconstruction

High-resolution reconstruction of April-September precipitation and major extreme droughts in China over the past∼530 years

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Science Bulletin 2024年第17期69卷 2756-2764页

作者： Yongxiang Zhang Hongli Wang Xuemei Shao Hongbin Liu Haifeng Zhu Lily Wang Eryuan Liang Zhixin Hao Xiuqi Fang Qibin Zhang Jinjian Li Xinghe Shi Yujiang Yuan Feng Chen Tongwen Zhang Ruibo Zhang Huaming Shang Jianfeng Peng National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Beijing New Epoch School the Administrative Bureau of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100086China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093China School of Atmospheric Sciences Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China Qinghai Climate Centre Xining 810001 China Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous RegionInstitute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650000China College of Geography and Environmental Science Henan UniversityKaifeng 475004China

Extreme drought events have increased,causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming ***,short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and projection of these *** the accumulation of proxy data,especially tree-ring data,large-scale precipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms *** point-by-point regression,we reconstructed the April-September precipitation field in China for the past~530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records,including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood *** regression models explained average 50%of the variance in *** the statistical test on calibration and verification,our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction *** reconstruction data performed well,showing consistency and better quality than previously reported *** first three leading modes of variability in the reconstruction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over ***/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81%/10.92%(68 years/58 years)and 1.69%/3.20%(9 years/17 years)of the past~530 years in China,*** extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our *** detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought(1637-1643),the Wanli Great Drought(1585-1590),and the Ding-Wu Great Famine(1874-1879),indicated the existence of potentially different underlying mechanisms that need further *** further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts,our gridded reconstruction of April-September precipitation in China over the past~530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.

关键词： precipitation reconstruction Tree rings Historical documents precipitation variability Extreme droughts

A bruptchanges in an 8000-year precipitationreconst ruction for Nevada,the Western USA

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2005年第3期15卷 259-272页

作者： GU Xiangqian JIANC Jianmin Franklin SCHWING Roy MENDELSSOHN Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Training Centre of China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research University of Hawaii HonoluluHI 96822 USA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory NOAA/NMFS Pacific Grove CA 93950 USA

A scanning t-test algorithm for detecting multiple time-scale abrupt changes in the level of a time-series was used to analyze an 8000 year time series of annual precipitation which was reconstructed from tree rings for the Nevada Climate Division 3 in the western USA. The tree ring samples were gathered from eight states in the southwestern USA. Twenty-two change-points were identified by the algorithm and these were used to partition the tree-ring series into twenty-three relatively Wet/Normal/Dry episodes. These twenty-three episodes were collaborated by a coherency analysis of abrupt changes between the precipitation reconstruction series and the TIC/δ^18O records from cored sediments of Pyramid Lake in Nevada, and by comparison with published results from related studies. These episodes were also compared with studies of the global climate change and with records of climate change in China during the same periods. The results suggest that the precipitation reconstruction series is quite valuable for climate-change research on multi-centurial time-scales in the western USA, and that the scanning t-test and coherency detection algorithms may have a wide use for detecting multiple time-scale abrupt changes in a long time series. As the TIC and δ^18O record series are high resolution with unequal sampling intervals ranging between 3 and 14 years, a new algorithm was developed to deal with the unequal time intervals in the series.

关键词： abrupt change 8000 years precipitation reconstruction tree ring Western USA

Exploratory precipitation in North-Central China during the Past Four Centuries

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2010年第1期84卷 223-229页

作者： YI Liang YU Hongjun XUXingyong YAO Jing SU Qiao GE Junyi Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research for Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Sciences Yantai Shandong 264003 China Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao Shandong 266071 China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao Shandong 266061 China Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi＇an Shaanxi 710075 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China

Two robust precipitation reconstructions were conducted by combining tree-ring chronologies, dryness/wetness indices from historical documents, and climate data from the global grid. It was found that the recurrent drought history of a region can help us understand the variability of precipitation. Several dry/wet periods during the past four centuries and potential cycles of precipitation variation were determined. Furthermore, the reconstructions are not only consistent well with each other in North-central China, but also in good agreement with variations of precipitation in northeastern Mongolia, the Longxi area in Gangsu Province and the Dulan area of Qinghai Province, and the snow accumulation of the Guliya glacier. These synchronous variations indicate that it is valuable to study various climate records, find common information and determine the driving force of climate change.

关键词： precipitation reconstruction dryness/wetness index tree-ring chronology North-centralChina

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the MingDynasty’s capital in 1644 CE

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Science Bulletin 2024年第19期69卷 3106-3114页

作者： Feng Chen Tao Wang Xiaoen Zhao Jan Esper Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Ulf Büntgen Hans W.Linderholm David Meko Hongna Xu Weipeng Yue Shijie Wang Yujiang Yuan Jingyun Zheng Wei Pan Fidel Roig Martín Hadad Mao Hu Jiachang Wei Fahu Chen Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco-SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Southwest United Graduate School Kunming 650504China Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg UniversityMainz 55099Germany Global Change Research Institute(CzechGlobe) Czech Academy of SciencesBrno 60300Czech Republic Department of History Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study LinneanumUppsala 75238Sweden Department of Geography University of CambridgeCambridge CB23ENUK Department of Geography Faculty of ScienceMasaryk UniversityBrno 61137Czech Republic Swiss Federal Research Institute(WSL) Birmensdorf 8903Switzerland Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of ArizonaTucson AZ 85721USA Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Digital Human Technology R&D and Application of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504China Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental IANIGLA-CCT CONICET-Universidad Nacional de CuyoMendoza 5500Argentina Hémera Centro de Observación de La Tierra Escuela de Ingeniería ForestalFacultad de CienciasUniversidad MayorHuechuraba 85

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine ***,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains ***,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of *** analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic *** finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the *** teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

关键词： Paleoclimate Beijing precipitation reconstruction Climate-society interactions Tree rings Ming Dynasty