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Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

Science Bulletin 2024年第2期69卷 237-247页

作者： Wei Sun Jian Li Rucong Yu Nina Li Yi Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100105China

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale *** we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble *** to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation *** the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport *** a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present *** the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the *** summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

关键词： precipitation extreme Climate change Pseudo-global-warming experiment Variable-resolution modeling Multi-scale system interaction

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Synchronous Characteristics of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze and Murray–Darling River Basins and the Role of ENSO

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第2期35卷 282-294页

作者： Yu GONG Tong JIANG Buda SU Jinlong HUANG Zbigniew WKUNDZEWICZ Cheng JING Hemin SUN State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science Nanjing University of Information Science&Technologyy Nanjing 210044China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Beijing Meteorological Observation Center(Beijing Observatory) Beijing 100089China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of Sciences y Bukowska 1960-809PoznanPoland

The floods caused by the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)and Murray–Darling River basin(MDRB),the largest basins in China and Australia,have significant impacts on the society and regional *** on the spatial–temporal analysis of the daily precipitation extremes(DPEs)during 1982–2016,we found that for both basins,the whole-basin-type DPEs have the highest proportion and a synchronous DPE interannual variation characteristic exists in the two basins,with the 3-yr running correlation coefficient of the annual DPE days(DPEDs)reaching almost 0.7(significant at the 0.01 level).The El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which is one of the most significant climate disturbance factors in the world,plays an important role in modulating the variability of the DPEs in the two *** value decomposition(SVD)analysis revealed that both the YRB and the MDRB’s whole-basin-type DPEs are closely coupled with the procedure that the preceding winter eastern Pacific(EP)-type El Ni?o faded to a central Pacific(CP)-type La *** means that the DPEs in the YRB and MDRB may synchronously occur more frequently when the above process *** to the atmosphere–ocean interaction from the east–west dipole sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly pattern,the atmospheric circulation disturbance exhibits a pattern in which the equatorial eastern Pacific region is a mass source anomaly with a higher pressure,drier air,and weaker convection,while the equatorial western Pacific region is a mass sink anomaly with a lower pressure,wetter air,and stronger ***,two wave trains that originated from the tropical western Pacific were found to extend to the YRB and *** interaction between the wave train’s interphase dynamics and water vapor transport disturbance results in the ascent conditions and enhanced water vapor transport,which leads to the synchronous occurrence of DPEs in the YRB and MDRB on an interannual scale.

关键词： precipitation extreme El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Yangtze River basin(YRB) Murray–Darling River basin(MDRB)

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