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Evaluation and Projection of population exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1132-1146页

作者： Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Rui HAN Buchun LIU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS)Beijing 100081China

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

关键词： CMIP6 convection-permitting population exposure RegCM4 temperature extremes

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High-resolution multi-scale air pollution system:Evaluation of modelling performance and emission control strategies

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第3期137卷 65-81页

作者： Diogo Lopes Joana Ferreira Sandra Rafael Ka In Hoi Xin Li Yuan Liu Ka-Veng Yuen Kai Meng Mok Ana Isabel Miranda Department of Environment and Planning&CESAM University of AveiroAveiroPortugal Department of Civil&Environmental Engineering Faculty of Science and TechnologyUniversity of MacaoMacao SARChina

A high percentage of the world's population lives in areas where air pollutant concentrations exceed the World Health Organization guidelines.This work aims to develop and test,a high-resolution multi-scale air pollution modelling system by integrating a set of adequate tools.This system is able to provide detailed air pollutant concentrations in urban areas and support air quality management strategies through a better identification of different atmospheric processes.It also allows furthering the design and assessment of air pollution control measures for a specific area.To evaluate its performance and suitability,the system was applied to the Macao Special Administrative Region(SAR),China,one of the most densely populated areas on earth,during a winter period when this area is affected by high levels of Particulate Matter(PM).Although the developed system tends to underestimate the PM concentrations,it revealed a good performance in reproducing the temporal and spatial air pollution patterns.Several exceedances of the Chinese air quality standards were calculated and high population exposure to PM pollution was estimated.The tested urban atmospheric emission reduction scenarios have shown air quality improvements,indicating that emission reduction measures at urban level should focus on the domestic sector.However,it is crucial to implement joint pollution prevention strategies with neighbouring regions to improve the air quality in Macao SAR.The approach developed in this work can support policymakers in defining new strategies to reduce atmospheric pollution in urban areas.

关键词： Urban areas High-resolution emission inventory Particulate matter population exposure

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population exposure to precipitation extremes in the Indus River Basin at1.5℃,2.0℃and 3.0℃warming levels

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第2期12卷 199-209页

作者： ZHAO Jian-Ting SU Bu-Da Sanjit Kumar MONDAL WANG Yan-Jun TAO Hui JIANG Tong Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geography Science Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi830011China

Adverse effects of extreme events are the major focus of climate change impact studies.Precipitation-related extremes has substantial so-cioeconomic impacts under the changing climate.Quantifying population exposure to precipitation extreme is the fundamental aspect ofpopulation risk assessments in the climate hotspot of Indus River Basin.This study investigates the population exposure to precipitation ex-tremes at 1.5℃,2.0℃,and 3.0℃global warmings in the Indus River Basin using daily precipitation data,and projected population undershared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The IntensityeAreaeDuration method was applied to detect the extreme precipitation event by tracingthe rainstorm process,calculated based on five downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Model(GCM)outputs from Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)under four Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5).Theexposure of the population is finally estimated by combing SSP1 with 1.5℃,SSP2 with 2.0℃,and SSP5 with 3.0℃warming levels.Resultsshow that warming over the Indus River Basin is projected to be higher than that of the global average.Both the extreme precipitation events andpopulation exposure are projected to increase with warming level.With regard to the reference period(1986e2005),the frequency,duration,andimpacted area of extreme precipitation are projected to increase by 13.2%,7.4%,and 1.6%annually under 1.5℃in the Indus River Basin,respectively.Whereas,an additional 0.5℃and 1.5℃warming can lead to further increase in the frequency of 16.6%,17.3%,as well as theduration of 8.6%,12%,and areal coverage of 2.1%,5.3%,respectively.The population exposure to extreme precipitation is projected to increaseby 72.4%,122.7%,and 87.6%,respectively,at SSP1 with 1.5℃,SSP2 with 2.0℃and SSP5 with 3.0℃warming levels compare to thereference period.The demographic change is responsible more for the tremendous increment of population exposure in the Indus River Basin.Ifthe population was held constant to the level of 2010,t

关键词： population exposure Extreme precipitation Intensitye Areae Duration Warming scenarios Indus River Basin

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GIS-based analysis of population exposure to PM2.5 air pollution-A case study of Beijing

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2017年第9期29卷 48-53页

作者： Zhao Liu Meihui Xie Kun Tian Peichao Gao Institute of Geospatial Information Dep.of Civil Eng.Tsinghua Univ.Beijing 100084China

PM_（2.5）, formally defined as particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm, is one of most harmful air pollutants threatening human health. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown that both short-term and long-term exposures to PM_（2.5） are strongly linked with respiratory diseases. In this study, various types of spatio-temporal data were collected and used to estimate the spatio-temporal variation of PM2.5 exposure in Beijing in 2014. The seasonal and daily variation of the population-weighted exposure level（PWEL） in 2014 was estimated and compared. The results show that the population exposure to ambient air pollution differs significantly in the four seasons, and the exposure levels in winter and spring are notably higher than the other seasons; the exposure level changes greatly from North to South, and each sub-district maintains similarity to neighboring sub-districts.

关键词： GIS population exposure PM2.5 Spatio-temporal variation

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Role of adaptation measures in addressing heatwave exposure in China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 148-157页

作者： Qin-Mei HAN Qing-Chen CHAO Shao SUN Pei-Jun SHI National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratoryof Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 0o08lChina Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Heatwave exposure has increased dramatically because of climate warming and population growth,along with their interactive effects.However,effective adaptation measures can reduce these impacts.Nonetheless,the dynamic changes,regional inequality in adaptive capacity and their potential contributions to reducing exposure in the future remain unclear.This study quantifies the impact of adaptive capacity and underscores regional variations in heatwave magnitudes,population exposure and adaptation levels in China.We projected the future adaptive capacity using air-conditioner penetration,factoring in climate cooling requirements and individuals'purchasing power.Utilising population and gross domestic product(GDP)data from four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3 and SSP5)and daily temperature data from four SSP-based emission scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5),we estimated heatwave duration,population exposure and avoided impacts through adaptation across China and its sub-regions.Results show a substantial increase in heatwave duration in Southwest and Southern China,especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with a projection of 163.2±36.7 d during 2081-2100.Under the SSP3|SSP3-7.0 scenario,total exposure reaches 156.4±76.8 billion person d per year,which is the highest among all scenarios and 23 times greater than that in 1986-2005 without adaptation.Upon considering adaptation measures,a noteworthy reduction in population exposure is observed,especially in the SSP3|SSP3-7.0 and SSP5JSSP5-8.5 scenarios,with reductions of(62.6±3.9)%and(65.8±5.1)%,respectively,compared with the scenario without adaptation during 2081-2100.Remarkable regional disparities in avoided impacts are also evident,with variations of up to 50%across different regions.The implementation of effective and environmentally friendly adaptation measures can notably address climate change,thereby alleviating the profound threats posed to human well-being.

关键词： Heatwaves population exposure Adaptation Future projection China

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Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and population exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第1期32卷 99-112页

作者： Mingjin ZHAN Xiucang LI Hemin SUN Jianqing ZHAI Tong JIANG Yanjun WANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 University of ChineseAcademy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Geography and Remote Sensing Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Jiangxi Provincial Climate Center Nanchang 330046

We used daily maximum temperature data（1986–2100） from the COSMO-CLM（COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode） regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events（EMTEs） with the intensity–area–duration method. Between 1986 and 2005（reference period）, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330–1680 times yr^–1, 31.4–33.3℃, and 1.76–3.88 million km^2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5–392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986–2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13–6.84, 0.32–1.50, and15.98%–30.68%, respectively, under 1.5℃ warming; under 2.0℃ warming, the increases are 1.73–12.48, 0.64–2.76,and 31.96%–50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5℃ warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0℃ warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0℃ warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%–39.2% and 26.6%–48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0℃ warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0℃ will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5℃.

关键词： extreme maximum temperature events population exposure 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming COSMO-CLM regional climate model China

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Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第6期12卷 804-813页

作者： SUN Shao DAI Tan-Long WANG Zun-Ya CHOU Jie-Ming CHAO Qing-Chen SHI Pei-Jun Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of ColoradoBoulderCO80309USA Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China

Climate extremes pose severe threats to human health,economic stability and environmental sustainability,especially in densely populated areas.It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency,intensity and duration of climate extremes,and socioeconomic exposure plays a dominant role in climate impacts.In order to promote climate risk governance at regional level,the historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes are quantified in eastern China using downscaled climate simulations and population growth scenarios.The frequency of temperature extremes(tx35days)is projected to more than double by 2050 in nearly half of prefecture-level cities in eastern China,leading to an 81.8%increment of total exposure under SSP2-4.5 scenario.The increasing trend is also detectable in the frequency of precipitation extremes(r20mm)in eastern China,and the exposure increment is projected to be 22.9%by 2050,with a near equivalent contributions of both climate change and population growth.Spatially,temperature exposure mainly grows in southern Hebei,western Shandong and inland Guangdong provinces,while precipitation exposure raises principally in southeast coastal areas of China.Based on the historical baseline and projected amplification of population exposure,we identify some hotspot cities such as Guangzhou,Shanghai,Dongguan and Hangzhou that response to climate change dramatically and confront greater potential risk of climate extremes in the coming future.

关键词： Climate projection Extreme events population exposure Future scenario Eastern China

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长三角城市群多情景暴雨人口暴露度时空演变分析

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第4期34卷 654-680页

作者：张亚茹姚蕊朱治州金恒旭张书亮 Key Laboratory of VGE of Ministry of Education Nanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application Nanjing210023China School of Geography and Tourism Anhui Normal UniversityWuhu 241002AnhuiChina

population exposure is a dominant representation of rainstorm hazard risks. However, the refined precipitation data in temporal resolution and the comparison of exposure to different rainstorm events remain relatively unexplored. Hourly precipitation data from 165meteorological stations w used to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of population exposure to different rainstorm scenarios in the prefecture-level cities for different periods and age groups. The Geographical Detector was adopted to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and contribution rates to changes in population exposure during each period. The results revealed that population exposure to persistent rainstorms and abrupt rainstorms was low in the center and high in the surrounding areas, and the high exposure value decreased significantly in the 2010s. Additionally, as the duration of rainstorm events increased, the center of the high-value area of population exposure shifted southward. The distribution of population exposure was closely related to the age structure, demonstrating strong consistency with the distribution of different age groups. Except for abrupt rainstorms, the contribution rates of the average land GDP and urbanization rate to the exposure of all rainstorm scenarios increased significantly. This implies that the main factors influencing population exposure have shifted from meteorological to socioeconomic factors.

关键词： rainstorm events population exposure multiple scenarios spatiotemporal characteristics Geographical Detector

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Mercury Levels Assessment in the population of Aby and Frambo Villages in the Vinicity of Aby Lagoon in Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa)

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2024年第3期16卷 219-232页

作者： Stéphane Jean Claon Serge Kouakou Kouassi Nina Laurette Ahouéfa Laurent Kipré Seri Arsène M’bassidjé Seka Joseph Allico Djaman Luc Kouakou Kouadio Analytical Sciences and Public Health Department University of Félix Houphou&eumlt-Boigny Abidjan C&ocircte d'Ivoire Water Quality Control and Analysis Laboratory (LACQUE) Office National de l’Eau Potable (ONEP) Abidjan C&ocircte d’Ivoire Biology and Health Laboratory University of Félix Houphou&eumlt-Boigny Abidjan C&ocircte d’Ivoire Laboratory of Nutrition and Food Safety Department of Science and Food Technology Nangui Abrogoua University Abidjan C&ocircte d'Ivoire Department of Medical and Fundamental Biochemistry Institut Pasteur of C&ocircte d'Ivoire Abidjan C&ocircte d’Ivoire Laboratory of Environmental Sciences (LSE) University of Nangui Abrogoua Abidjan C&ocircte d’Ivoire

The Minamata Convention in the aim to protect human life and the environment, seeks to reduce mercury (Hg) by monitoring it concentrations in the environment. Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM) has been identified as the most important anthropogenic source of human exposure to Hg. In this context, the main goal of this study was to assess the level of mercury in hair of two (2) populations living along two lagoons respectively Aby and Tendo, in Ivory Coast. To reach this goal, hair samples of 138 residents were collected and analyzed by using Cold Vapor Atomic Fluorescence Spectrophotometry (CV-AFS) technique for mercury concentration. Results showed that for the entire population the Hg mean was 2.34 μg/g. Also, they were ranged between 0.15 to 8.53 μg/g and presented substantial differences amongst the villages. In Aby village, we observed the highest Hg concentrations (Mean = 2.62 μg/g). Our findings showed that almost the entire sample group (82%) exceed the USEPA recommended limit, furthermore 56% of them exceed the normal level of WHO and 2% of the respondent has the unhealthy levels of mercury (≥6 μg Hg/g) of hair by WHO standards. Gender differences in hair mercury varies greatly among reports. Lower levels in women’s hair compared to men were reported in the both village. Considering age, the lowest concentrations were observed with children. However, when we take in account the age groups, data suggested that the most exposed sub-population of [18-29] years old is from Aby village in opposite at Frambo village, the same case those who were ≥ 40 years old. It’s convenient to note that, the proportion of Mercury levels would not to be neglected among studied population especially with the resident from Aby village. So, some measures need to be taken at the political level to control mercury contamination.

关键词： Mercury Hair ASGM population exposure Côte d’Ivoire

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Time-varying road network design for urban hazmat transportation

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Journal of Management Science and Engineering 2023年第4期8卷 558-569页

作者： Jingyi Chen Qiuchen Gu Hanwen Yu Wei Zhou Tijun Fan School of Business East China University of Science and TechnologyShanghai 200237China Information&Operations Management Department ESCP Business SchoolParis 75015France School of Economics and Management Minjiang UniversityFuzhou 350108China

Hazmat transportation in cities faces significant risks that may cause catastrophic losses to humans.From the perspective of the regulator,the main responsibility is to mitigate hazmat transport risk by determining the availability of road networks to hazmat carriers.Based on the time-variant population distribution,the hazmat transport risk was assessed via the total population exposure associated with the resident and variable populations at different times.We propose a risk-minimizing urban hazmat road network design model for multiple types of hazmats,considering time-varying traffic.The model was applied to a realistic case study of hazmat transportation in a densely populated urban area with complex traffic in Shanghai,China.

关键词： Hazmat transport Roadclosure Time-varying traffic Network design population exposure Urbanenvironment

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