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population dynamics modelling with spatial heterogeneity for yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis)along the coast of China

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第10期39卷 107-119页

作者： Qiuyun Ma Yan Jiao Yiping Ren Ying Xue Fisheries College Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginia 24061USA Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China College of Marine Sciences Shanghai Ocean UniversityShanghai 201306China

As one of the top four commercially important species in China,yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis)with two geographic subpopulations,has undergone profound changes during the last several decades.It is widely comprehended that understanding its population dynamics is critically important for sustainable management of this valuable fishery in China.The only two existing population dynamics models assessed the population of yellow croaker using short time-series data,without considering geographical variations.In this study,Bayesian models with and without hierarchical subpopulation structure were developed to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the population dynamics of yellow croaker from 1968 to 2015.Alternative hypotheses were constructed to test potential temporal patterns in yellow croaker’s population dynamics.Substantial variations in population dynamics characteristics among space and time were found through this study.The population growth rate was revealed to increase since the late 1980s,and the catchability increased more than twice from 1981 to 2015.The East China Sea’s subpopulation witnesses faster growth,but suffers from higher fishing pressure than that in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.The global population and two subpopulations all have high risks of overfishing and being overfished according to the MSY-based reference points in recent years.More conservative management strategies with subpopulation considerations are imperative for the fishery management of yellow croaker in China.The methodology developed in this study could also be applied to the stock assessment and fishery management of other species,especially for those species with large spatial heterogeneity data.

关键词： yellow croaker population dynamics Bayesian hierarchical model geographic variation

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population dynamics and condition index of natural stock of blood cockle,Tegillarca granosa(Mollusca,Bivalvia,Arcidae)in the Marudu Bay,Malaysia

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2021年第8期40卷 89-97页

作者： Joanna W.Doinsing Vienna Anastasia Admodisastro Laditah Duisan Julian Ransangan Politeknik Sandakan Sabah Education HubSandakan 90000Malaysia Borneo Marine Research Institute Universiti Malaysia SabahKota Kinabalu 88400Malaysia

The population parameters of blood cockles,Tegillarca granosa in the intertidal zone of Marudu Bay,Sabah,Malaysia were investigated based on monthly length-weight frequency data(July 2017 to June 2018).A total of 279 cockle individuals with shell length and weight ranging from 27.7 mm to 82.2 mm and 13.11 g to 192.7 g were subjected to analysis.T.granosa in Marudu Bay showed a consistent moderately high condition index 4.98±0.86 throughout the year.The exponent b of the length-weight relationship was 2.6 demonstrating negative allometric growth.The estimated asymptotic length(L_(∞)),growth coefficient(K)and growth performance(Ф)of the T.granosa population in Marudu Bay were estimated at 86.68 mm,0.98 a^(-1) and 3.87,respectively.The observed maximum shell length was 82.55 mm and the predicted maximum shell length was 84.44 mm with estimated maximum life span(t_(max))of 3.06 years.The estimated mean lengths at the end of 2,4,6,8,10 and 12 months of age were 21.31 mm,31.16 mm,39.53 mm,46.63 mm,52.67 mm and 57.79 mm.Total,natural,and fishing mortalities were estimated at 2.39 a^(-1),1.32 a^(-1) and 1.07 a^(-1).The exploitation level(E)was 0.45.Results of the current study also demonstrated that T.granosa in the Marudu Bay has two major recruitment peaks;one in March and another in October.The exploitation level revealed that natural stock of T.granosa in the Marudu Bay was approaching the maximum exploitation level.If such trend continues or demand for T.granosa is increasing,coupled with no effective fisheries management in place,possibility of the T.granosa population in the Marudu Bay to collapse is likely to elevate.

关键词： Arcidae population dynamics condition index Marudu Bay

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population dynamics of Amur tigers(Panthera tigris altaica)in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik:1966–2012

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Integrative Zoology 2015年第4期10卷 315-328页

作者： Dale G.MIQUELLE Evgeny N.SMIRNOV Olga Yu.ZAUMYSLOVA Svetlana V.SOUTYRINA Douglas H.JOHNSON Wildlife Conservation Society BronxNew YorkUSA Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik TerneiPrimorskii KraiRussia USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center Saint PaulMinnesotaUSA

In 2010,the world’s tiger(Panthera tigris)range countries agreed to the goal of doubling tiger numbers over 12 years,but whether such an increase is biologically feasible has not been assessed.Long-term monitoring of tigers in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik(SABZ),Russia provided an opportunity to determine growth rates of a recovering population.A 41-year growth phase was followed by a rapid decline in tiger numbers.Annual growth rates during the growth phase averaged 4.6%,beginning near 10%in the earliest years but quickly dropping below 5%.Sex ratio(females per male)mirrored growth rates,declining as population size increased.The rapid decline from 2009 to 2012 appeared to be tied to multiple factors,including poaching,severe winters and disease.Reproductive indicators of this population are similar to those of Bengal tiger populations,suggesting that growth rates may be similar.These results suggest that,first,tiger populations likely in general grow slowly:3–5%yearly increases are realistic and larger growth rates are likely only when populations are highly depressed,mortality rates are low and prey populations are high relative to numbers of adult females.Second,while more research is needed,it should not be assumed that tiger populations with high prey densities will necessarily grow more quickly than populations with low prey densities.Third,while growth is slow,decline can be rapid.Fourth,because declines can happen so quickly,there is a constant need to monitor populations and be ready to respond with appropriate and timely conservation interventions if tiger populations are to remain secure.Finally,an average annual growth rate across all tiger populations of 6%,required to reach the Global Tiger Initiative’s goal of doubling tiger numbers in 12 years,is a noble but unlikely scenario.

关键词： Amur tiger growth rates population dynamics

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A population dynamics Approach to the Distribution of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit

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Communications on Applied Mathematics and Computation 2024年第1期6卷 340-353页

作者： John Jurkiewicz Peter Hinow Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Wisconsin-MilwaukeeMilwaukeeWI53201USA

The presence of the debris in the Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space.This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches,the loss of external parts from space ships,and uncontrollable collisions between objects.A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical.Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of the debris density in the low-Earth orbit and its dependence on the ground-launch policy.We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for the uncontrolled growth.Finally,we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.

关键词： population dynamics Space debris Kessler syndrome Diffusion Low-Earth orbit

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Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, in the field

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2023年第6期22卷 1797-1808页

作者： XU Lei ZHAO Tong-hua XING Xing XU Guo-qing XU Biao ZHAO Ji-qiu Institute of Plant Protection Liaoning Academy of Agricultural SciencesShenyang 110161P.R.China Agricultural Technology Extension Center of Xiuyan Manchu Autonomous County Anshan 114300P.R.China

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management(IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.

关键词： soybean aphid population dynamics logistic model inverse logistic model multifactor logistic model

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Smart energy management system framework for population dynamics modelling and suitable energy trajectories identification in islanded micro-grids

Energy and AI

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Energy and AI 2023年第3期13卷 104-116页

作者： Mehdi Mounsif Fabien Medard Akkodis 7 Bd Henri ZieglerBlagnac31700OccitanieFrance

In an increasingly electrified and connected world,renewable energy production and robust distribution as well as sobriety paradigm,both for the individual and the society,will most likely play a central role regarding global systems stability.Consequently,while being able to conceive efficient storage systems coupled with robust energy management strategies present significant interests,a number of related studies often consider the human behaviour factor separately.While not decisive in large industrial factories,human demeanor impact cannot be overlooked in residential areas.As such,this work proposes an innovative and flexible dynamic population model,inspired from epidemiological methods,that allows simulation of a vast spectrum of social scenarios.By pairing this formalization with a smart energy management strategy,a complete framework is proposed.In particular,beyond the theoretical identification of sustainable parameters in a wide diversity of configurations,our experiments demonstrate the relevance of reinforcement learning agents as efficient energy management policies.Depending on the scenario,the trained agent enables an increase of the sustainability areas over baseline strategies up to 200%,thus hinting at ultimately softer societal impact.

关键词： Energy storage and management Reinforcement learning population dynamics Optimization

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population dynamics of Acartia pacifica (Copepoda:Calanoida):the importance of benthic-pelagic coupling

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2006年第6期25卷 88-98页

作者： JIANG Xiaodong WANG Guizhong LI Shaojing Key Laboratory for Polar Science of State Oceanic Administration Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200136 China Department of Oceanography State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science Xiamen University Xiamen 361005 China

The seasonal occurrence of Acartia pacifica （ Copepoda： Calanoida） and their resting eggs in the sediment of Xiamen Bay were documented between October 2002 and September 2003. The numher of viable eggs in the sediment increased from January to May with the increase in the numher of planktonic females. When the population ofA. pacifica disappeared from the water cohinm, the number of eggs in the sediment began to decrease and reached a low value due to lack of input. The peak of nauplii abundance occurred when the hatching potential of eggs from the sediment was high under the natural environment from February to June. The hatching of resting eggs of A. pacifica was essentially temperature-dependent after suspension, while photoperied regimes had no significant effect on the hatching. The mean density of subitaneeus eggs was 1. 122 0 g/cm^3 with a standard deviation （SD） of 0. 000 2 g/cm^3. The mean density of diapause eggs was 1. 151 2 g/cm^3 with a SD of 0.000 1 g/cm^3. The sinking rates of subitaneons eggs ranged from 19.55 to 26.17 m/d, while those of diapause eggs ranged from 30.29 to 31.28 m/d. The comparison of the egg deposition time and egg hatching time suggested that in most cases virtually all subitaneous eggs of A. pacifica would settle to the bottom before their hatching even though the eggs have high potential to hatch. The evidence was provided that the seasonal dynamics of A. pacifica is accompanied by benthic-pelagic coupling.

关键词： population dynamics benthic - pelagic coupling Acartia pacifica

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Potential influence of carbohydrate and amino acid intake by adults on the population dynamics of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2021年第7期20卷 1889-1897页

作者： LI Chuan-ming XU Jian LIU Qin HAN Guang-jie XU Bin YANG Yi-zhong LIU Xian-jin College of Horticulture and Plant Protection Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225009P.R.China Institute of Agricultural Sciences for Lixiahe Region in Jiangsu Yangzhou 225007P.R.China Key Laboratory of Food Quality and Safety of Jiangsu Province Institute of Food Safety and NutritionJiangsu Academy of Agricultural SciencesNanjing 210014P.R.China

Cnaphalocrocis medinalis is a key lepidopteran pest of rice. However, little is known about the nutritional requirements of the adult or the effects of adult-derived nutrients on reproduction. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of carbohydrates and amino acids on the reproductive and demographic parameters of C. medinalis. Different feeding solutions significantly influenced adult survival and reproduction. All the sources of carbohydrates used in the treatments(fructose, glucose, and sucrose) were sufficient to increase adult longevity and fecundity, and benefited the development of ovaries in the adult stage. The positive impact of carbohydrates on lifetime fecundity was due to the prolonged oviposition period and the increased daily fecundity. The intrinsic rate of increase(rm) of C. medinalis increased from 0.103 in waterfed individuals to approximately 0.138 when adults were fed with solutions containing carbohydrates. In contrast, amino acid intake by adult insects exhibited no effect on the longevity, fecundity, ovarian development or population growth, even showing an impact of decreasing longevity of females. As nectar secreted by the flowering plant is generally rich in sugars, the potential effects of nectar on the adults of C. medinalis and other pests have to be considered during the development of biological control by applying flowering plants as a microhabitat and food source for natural enemies in rice fields.

关键词： Cnaphalocrocis medinalis carbohydrate-feeding adult nutrition reproduction population dynamics

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population dynamics of Piscicola geometra (Hirudinea: Rhynchobdellida) on Oreochromis Niloticus (Cichlidae) cultured in a rainforest fish pond, South Eastern Nigeria

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2002年第4期14卷 536-540页

作者： Opara, K. N. (Department of Zoology, University of Uyo, Nigeria. Department of Zoology University of Uyo 尼日利亚

The distribution, abundance and intensity of the annelid worm, Piscicola geometra (leeches) infecting Oreochromis niloticus cultured in a rainforest fish pond, South Eastern Nigeria was studied over a 12 months period. Three hundred fish were examined of which 48.3% were infected. Infection occurred throughout the year, with a peak in February. Female fish had a significantly higher intensity of infection( P < 0.05) than males. There was a clear seasonal periodicity in the degree of infection and the distribution of the parasite exhibited an aggregated or contagious model of dispersion. There was a significant positive correlation between the size of the fish and worm burden.

关键词： Piscicola geometra pond Oreochromis niloticus population dynamics parasites

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Long-term patterns in Iberian hare population dynamics in a protected area(Doñana National Park)in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula:Effects of weather conditions and plant cover

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Integrative Zoology 2017年第1期12卷 49-60页

作者： Francisco CARRO Ramón C.SORIGUER Doñana Biological Station(CSIC) the Monitoring Team on Natural Resources and Processes of the Doñana Biological Station Ethology and Biodiversity Conservation SevillaSpain

The Iberian hare(Lepus granatensis)is a widely distributed endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula.To improve our knowledge of its population dynamics,the relative abundance and population trends of the Iberian hare were studied in the autumns of 1995-2012 in a protected area(Doñana National Park)by spotlighting in 2 different habitats:marshland and ecotones.The average relative abundance was 0.38 hare/km(SD=0.63)in the marshland and 3.6 hares/km(SD=4.09)in ecotones.The Iberian hare population exhibited local interannual fluctuations and a negative population trend during the study period(1995-2012).The results suggest that its populations are in decline.The flooding of parts of the marshland in June,July and October favor hare abundance in the ecotone.Hare abundance in the marshland increases as the flooded surface area increases in October.These effects are more pronounced if the rains are early(October)and partially flood the marsh.By contrast,when marsh grasses and graminoids are very high and thick(as measured using the aerial herbaceous biomass[biomass marshland]as a proxy),the abundance of hares decreases dramatically as does the area of the marsh that is flooded(in November).

关键词： Doñana Iberian Peninsula Lepus granatensis population dynamics trends

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