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Backcalculation of the disease-age specific frequency of secondary transmission of primary pneumonic plague

Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2008年第3期1卷 25-29页

作者： Hiroshi Nishiura Theoretical Epidemiology University of UtrechtYalelaan 73584 CLUtrechtThe Netherlands

The purpose of the paper was to assess the frequency of secondary transmissions of primary pneumonic plague relative to the onset of fever.A simple backcalculation method was employed to estimate the frequency of secondary transmissions relative to disease-age.A likelihood-based procedure was taken using observed distributions of the serial interval(n = 177) and incubation period(n = 126).Furthermore,an extended model was developed to account for the survival probability of *** simple backcalculation suggested that 31. 0%(95%confidence intervals(CI):11.6,50.4) and 28.0%(95%CI:10.2,45.8) of the total number of secondary transmissions had occurred at second and third days of the disease,respectively,and more than four-fifths of the secondary transmission occurred before the end of third day of *** survivorship-adjusted frequency of secondary transmissions was obtained,demonstrating that the infectiousness in later stages of illness was not insignificant and indicates that the obtained frequencies were likely biased on underlying factors including isolation *** conclusion,the simple exercise suggests a need to implement countermeasures during pre-clinical stage or immediately after *** information is needed to elucidate the finer details of the disease-age specific infectiousness.

关键词： pneumonic plague yersinia pestis epidemiology estimation techniques

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