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Maize drought disaster risk assessment of China based on EPIC model

International Journal of Digital Earth 2012年第6期5卷 488-515页

作者： Huicong Jia Jingai Wang Chunxiang Cao Donghua Pan Peijun Shi State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100101P.R.China Key Laboratory of Regional Geography College of Geography and Remote Sensing ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875P.R.China National Disaster Reduction Center of China Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People?s Republic of ChinaBeijing 100124P.R.China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875P.R.China

Digital Agriculture is one of the important applications of Digital *** the global climate changes and food security becomes an increasingly important issue,agriculture drought comes to the focus of *** is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world’s largest *** East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact upon agricultural ***,a maize drought disaster risk assessment,in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture,is important for ensuring drought disaster reduction and food ***,soil,land use,and agro-meteorological observation information of the research area were collected,and based on the concept framework of‘hazard-inducing factors assessment(hazard)-vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body(vulner-ability curve)-risk assessment(risk),’importing crop model EPIC(Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator),using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques,quantitative assessment of spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in China was *** results showed that:in terms of 2,5,10,and 20 year return periods,the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting *** the 20 year return period,high risk value regions(drought loss rate]0.5)concentrate in the irrigated maize region of Northwest china,ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in Northern China,Hetao Irrigation Area,and north-central area of North China Plain,accounting for 6.41%of the total maize *** results can provide a scientific basis for the government’s decision-making in risk management and drought disaster prevention in China.

关键词： physical vulnerability risk assessment agriculture drought maize production EPIC model China Digital Earth GIS

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