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climate-dependent malaria disease transmission model and its analysis

International Journal of Biomathematics 2019年第8期12卷 87-126页

作者： Kassahun Workalemahu Geamshuaw Semu Mitiku Kassa Rachid Ouifki Department of Mathematics Addis Ababa University P.O.Box 1176Addis AbabaEthiopia Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences Botswana International University of Science and Technology(BIUST)P/Bag 16 PalapyeBotswana Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Pretoria South Africa

Malaria infection continues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including *** variables are known to significantly affect the population dynamics and abundance of insects,major catalysts of vector-borne diseases,but the exact extent and consequences of this sensitivity are not yet well *** assess the impact of the variability in temperature and rainfall on the transmission dynamics of malaria in a population,we propose a model consisting of a system of non-autonomous deterministic equations that incorporate the effect of both temperature and rainfall to the dispersion and mortality rate of adult *** model has been validated using epidemiological data collected from the western region of Ethiopia by considering the trends for the cases of malaria and the climate variation in the ***,a mathematical analysis is performed to assess the impact of temperature and rainfall change on the transmission dynamics of the *** periodic variation of seasonal variables as well as the non-periodic variation due to the long-term climate variation have been incorporated and *** both periodic and non-periodic cases,it has been shown that the disease-free solution of the model is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is less than unity in the non-periodic *** disease is uniformly persistent when the basic reproduction ratio is greater than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is greater than unity in the non-periodic system.

关键词： climate-dependent malaria model asymptotic stability periodic and nonperiodic climate-dependent growth rates validation using epidemiological data

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