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Climate Change Impact and Its Contribution Share to paddy rice production in Jiangxi, China

Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2014年第7期13卷 1565-1574页

作者： LI Wen-juan TANG Hua-jun QIN Zhi-hao YOU Fei WANG Xiu-fen CHEN Chang-li JI Jian-hua LIU Xiu-mei Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing University Institute of Crop Sciences Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute of Soil Fertilizer and Resource Environment Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences

In the study, an improved approach was proposed to identify the contribution shares of three group factors that are climate, technology and input, social economic factors by which the grain production is shaped. In order to calibrate the method, Jiangxi Province, one of the main paddy rice producers in China was taken as an example. Based on 50 years （1961-2010） meteorological and statistic data, using GIS and statistical analysis tools, the three group factors that in certain extent impact China＇s paddy rice production have been analyzed quantitatively. The individual and interactive contribution shares of each factor group have been identiifed via eta square （η2）. In the paper, two group ordinary leasr square （OLS） models, paddy models and climate models, have been constructed for further analysis. Each model group consists of seven models, one full model and six partial models. The results of paddy models show that climate factors individually and interactively contribute 11.42-15.25%explanatory power to the variation of paddy rice production in the studied province. Technology and input factors contribute 16.17%individually and another 8.46%interactively together with climate factors, totally contributing about 25%. Social economic factors contribute about 7%of which 4.65%is individual contribution and 2.49%is interactive contribution together with climate factors. The three factor groups individually contribute about 23%and interactively contribute additional 41%to paddy rice production. In addition every two of the three factor groups also function interactively and contribute about 22%. Among the three factor groups, technology and input are the most important factors to paddy rice production. The results of climate models support the results of paddy models, and display that solar radiation （indicated by sunshine hour variable） is the dominate climate factor for paddy rice production.

关键词： climate change food security paddy rice production contribution share China

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