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Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 518-531页

作者： Guilin LIU Xiuxiu NONG Yi KOU Fang WU Daniel ZHAO Zongbing YU College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Dornsife College University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles CA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara CA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridge MA 02138USA State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of TechnologyDalian 116024China

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe ***,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge *** constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme *** over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period *** results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold *** results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis *** the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 *** results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally *** classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more *** the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

关键词： risk classification South China Sea typhoon storm surge extreme value expansion over threshold sampling

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