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Improving optimal fingerprinting Methods Requires a Viewpoint beyond Statistical Science

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1869-1872页

作者： Jianhua LU School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University(SYSU)&Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China

While being successful in the detection and attribution of climate change,the optimal fingerprinting method(OFM)may have some limitations from a physics-and-dynamics-based ***,an analysis is made on the linearity,noninteraction,and stationary-variability assumptions adopted by *** is suggested that furthering OFM needs a viewpoint beyond statistical science,and the method should be combined with theoretical tools in the dynamics and physics of the Earth system,so as to be applied for the detection and attribution of nonlinear climate change including tipping elements within the Earth system.

关键词： optimal fingerprinting detection and attribution nonlinearity interaction between climate change and variability non-stationary climate variability

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A Review of Climate Change Attribution Studies

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第5期32卷 671-692页

作者： Panmao ZHAI Baiquan ZHOU Yang CHEN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

This paper reviews recent progress in climate change attribution studies. The focus is on the attribution of ob-served long-term changes in surface temperature, precipitation, circulation, and extremes, as well as that of specific extreme weather and climate events. Based on new methods and better models and observations, the latest studies ftLrther verify the conclusions on climate change attribution in the IPCC AR5, and enrich the evidence for anthropo-genie influences on weather and climate variables and extremes. The uncertainty of global temperature change attrib- utable to anthropogenic forcings lies in the considerable uncertainty of estimated total radiative forcing due to aero- sols, while the uncertainty of precipitation change attribution arises from the limitations of observation and model simulations along with influences from large internal variability. In terms of extreme weather and climate events, it is clear that attribution studies have provided important new insights into the changes in the intensity or frequency of some of these events caused by anthropogenic climate change. The framing of the research question, the methods se- lected, and the model and statistical methods used all have influences on the results and conclusions drawn in an event attribution study. Overall, attribution studies in China remain inadequate because of limited research focus and the complexity of the monsoon climate in East Asia. Attribution research in China has focused mainly on changes or events related to temperature, such as the attribution of changes in mean and extreme temperature and individual heat wave events. Some progress has also been made regarding the pattern of changes in precipitation and individual ex-treme rainfall events in China. Nonetheless, gaps remain with respect to the attribution of changes in extreme precip-itation, circulation, and drought, as well as to the event attribution such as those related to drought and tropical cyc-lones. It can

关键词： climate change detection and attribution climate extremes event attribution optimal fingerprinting

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