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Ingredients-based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Combined Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Short-Range Forecasting:An Improved Scheme

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 241-256页

作者： TIAN Fu-you XIA Kun SUN Jian-hua ZHENG Yong-guang HUA Shan National Meteorological Center Beijing100081 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(IAP/CAS)Beijing 100029 China Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(IAP/CAS)Beijing 100029 China

Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 *** is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe ***-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather *** the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic *** 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved *** best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective *** distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency *** weights of predictors were also objectively *** with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved *** of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic *** study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of *** scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.

关键词： ingredients-based methodology fuzzy logic approach probability of short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR) improved forecasting scheme objectively obtained membership functions

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