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A numerical forecasting model of offshore-SST anomaly

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2000年第1期19卷 25-34页

作者： Wang Sizhen Li Xuhua Qi Jianhua and Su Yusong (1. Ocean University of Qingdao, Qingdao 266003, China.) Ocean University of Qingdao Qingdao 266003 China

An SST model which is good at predicting offshore-SST anomaly (O-SSTA) has been developed. It is composed of three parts: equations of dynamics, equations of model's physics and equations of affecting factors of O-SSTA. Initial field of SST is prepared for a case of O-SSTA on last decade of July 1994, in which there are a center of warm anomaly in the Huanghai Sea and a center of cold anomaly in the East China Sea to be developing simultaneously. Using the Observed atmospheric forcing, the (decade) experiment forecast is made. forecasting accuracy of warm (cold) anomaly is 32/44 (29/33 )' the ensemble accuracy reaches R = 91% and AMD = 0. 67 t. The chief affecting factors of O-SSTA for this case are shown, for warm anomaly: (1 ) afar radiation (weight is 64 % ), (2) the convergence of warm water (9% ), (3 ) shallow-water effects; and for cold anomaly: (l) pumping of typhoon (44 % ), (2) entrainment of storm (24 % ), (3) latent heat (19 % ), respectively. It is identified that the formation of warm (cold) anomaly is a slower (faster) process.

关键词： Offshore-SSTA numerical forecasting shallow-water effect

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Study on Fog Climate Characteristic and forecasting Method in East of Hexi Corridor

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2010年第2期1卷 37-41页

作者：杨晓玲丁文魁张义海中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室甘肃兰州730020 甘肃省武威市气象局甘肃武威733000

Using fog meteorological data of five stations of Wuwei in east of Hexi Corridor from 1961 to 2008,geography distribution and climate characteristic of fog were analyzed with statistical *** results showed that fog had the obvious region characteristic,fog days were more in mountainous area than Sichuan area and were more in south than *** assumed reducing tendency year by *** occurring frequency was the highest from July to October in one *** occurring centralized time was form 20:00 to next day 08:00 in one *** of ECMWF numerical forecast grid field,factor was initially elected with Press criterion,factor was selected with stepwise regression forecast *** fog forecasting equation was built with optimal subset *** overall situation and the most superior significance equations of fog forecasting were ascertained finally for spring,summer and *** rate three seasonal forecasting equation were 85.5%,82.1% and 81.2% respectively,which would provide objective and effective instruction products for forecasting service.

关键词： Fog Climate characteristic ECMWF numerical forecasting Hexi Corridor China

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