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Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over northeastern china with CMIP6 Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 37-48页

作者： Wei LI Zhihong JIANG Laurent ZXLI Jing-Jia LUO Panmao ZHAI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory of Severe Weather Fujian Institute of Meteorological SciencesFuzhou 350001China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

northeastern china has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe cases.Response of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern china during the past decades.The trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing simulations.The attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of PI.Similarly,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed changes.For a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming.

关键词： compound hot and dry event(CHDE) detection and attribution northeastern china future projection

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Estimating Ground Snow Load Based on Ground Snow Depth and Climatological Elements for Snow Hazard Assessment in northeastern china

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第5期13卷 743-757页

作者： Huamei Mo Guolong Zhang Qingwen Zhang H.P.Hong Feng Fan Key Lab of Structures Dynamic Behavior and Control of the Ministry of Education Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150090China Key Lab of Smart Prevention and Mitigation of Civil Engineering Disasters of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150090China Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Western OntarioLondonOntario N6A 5B9Canada

Extreme snow loads can collapse roofs.This load is calculated based on the ground snow load(that is,the snow water equivalent on the ground).However,snow water equivalent(SWE) measurements are unavailable for most sites,while the ground snow depth is frequently measured and recorded.A new simple practical algorithm was proposed in this study to evaluate the SWE by utilizing ground snow depth,precipitation data,wind speed,and air temperature.For the evaluation,the precipitation was clas sified as snowfall or rainfall according to the air temperature,the snowfall or rainfall was then corrected for measurement error that is mainly caused by wind-induced undercatch,and the effect of snow water loss was considered.The developed algorithm was applied and validated using data from57 meteorological stations located in the northeastern region of china.The annual maximum SWE obtained based on the proposed algorithm was compared with that obtained from the actual SWE measurements.The return period values of the annual maximum ground snow load were estimated and compared to those obtained according to the procedure suggested by the Chinese structural design code.The comparison indicated that the use of the proposed algorithm leads to a good estimated SWE or ground snow load.Its use allowed the estimation of the ground snow load for sites without SWE measurement and facilitated snow hazard mapping.

关键词： Ground snow depth Ground snow load northeastern china Precipitation data Snow hazard mapping Snow water equivalent

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Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in northeastern china

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 889-897页

作者： ZHOU Mengzi WANG Huijun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern china （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.

关键词： northeastern china statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty

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Vegetation Phenology in Permafrost Regions of northeastern china Based on MODIS and Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

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Chinese Geographical Science 2021年第3期31卷 459-473页

作者： WEN Lixiang GUO Meng YIN Shuai HUANG Shubo LI Xingli YU Fangbing Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains Ministry of EducationSchool of Geographical SciencesNortheast Normal UniversityChangchun 130024China Centers for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukuba 305-8555Japan

Vegetation phenology is an indicator of vegetation response to natural environmental changes and is of great significance for the study of global climate change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems.The normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)and enhanced vegetation index(EVI),extracted from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS),are widely used to monitor phenology by calculating land surface reflectance.However,the applicability of the vegetation index based on‘greenness'to monitor photosynthetic activity is hindered by poor observation conditions(e.g.,ground shadows,snow,and clouds).Recently,satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SIF)from OCO-2 sensors have shown great potential for studying vegetation phenology.Here,we tested the feasibility of SIF in extracting phenological metrics in permafrost regions of the northeastern china,exploring the characteristics of SIF in the study of vegetation phenology and the differences between NDVI and EVI.The results show that NDVI has obvious SOS advance and EOS lag,and EVI is closer to SIF.The growing season length based on SIF is often the shortest,while it can represent the true phenology of vegetation because it is closely related to photosynthesis.SIF is more sensitive than the traditional remote sensing indices in monitoring seasonal changes in vegetation phenology and can compensate for the shortcomings of traditional vegetation indices.We also used the time series data of MODIS NDVI and EVI to extract phenological metrics in different permafrost regions.The results show that the length of growing season of vegetation in predominantly continuous permafrost(zone I)is longer than in permafrost with isolated taliks(zone II).Our results have certain significance for understanding the response of ecosystems in cold regions to global climate change.

关键词： vegetation phenology permafrost Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SIF) northeastern china

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Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in northeastern china Based on BCC_CSM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1085-1095页

作者： Yihe FANG Haishan CHEN Zhiqiang GONG Fangshu XU Chunyu ZHAO Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Changeand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Regional Climate Center of Shenyang Shenyang 110016 Laboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Monitoring and Diagnose National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Liaoning Meteorological Service Center Shenyang 110016

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern china （NEC） and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0. 13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.

关键词： summer precipitation northeastern china sea surface temperature El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic–analogue correction probabilistic prediction

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Stratigraphy and Geochronology of Vertebrate Fossil-Bearing Jurassic Strata from Linglongta,Jianchang County,Western Liaoning,northeastern china

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2012年第6期86卷 1326-1339页

作者： PENG Nan LIU Yongqing KUANG Hongwei JIANG Xiaojun XU Huan Institute of Geology Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences School of the Earth Science and Resources China University of Geosciences

northeastern china contains widely distributed Jurassic terrestrial strata that have yielded many spectacular mammal and pterosaur fossils, in addition to feathered dinosaur fossils and more recent discoveries from Jianchang, particularly from western Liaoning. However, the fossil-bearing stratigraphic succession, regional correlation, and age estimates of the fossils found in Jianchang County and nearby areas have been contentious. Here, we report on the vertebrate fossil-bearing Jurassic stratigraphy from Linglongta, Jianchang County, western Liaoning, including a SHRIMP U-Pb zircon date unambiguously associated with the fossil horizons. The primary goal was to determine the vertebrate fossil-bearing succession. A further aim was to provide age estimations for the fossil-bearing horizon as well as the earliest appearance of feathered dinosaurs, the eutherian-placental clade, and transitional pterosaurs. Field investigations showed that the vertebrate fossil-bearing stratigraphic succession in Jianchang County mainly consists of basal andesites overlain by rhythmic tufts and tuffaceous lacustrine sediments, with the upper intermediate or acidic lavas interbedded with laminated more or less tuffaceous lacustrine deposits. This sequence correlates well with the Middle Jurassic Lanqifl＇iaojishan Formation in northeastern china. Detailed and accurate field observations showed that the well- preserved vertebrate fossils were buried in either the middle or the upper fine-grained laminated lacustrine deposits. Previous and current SHRIMP U-Pb zircon dates provide an age estimation of 161- 159 Myr for the fossil-bearing horizon and vertebrates. This indicates that the earliest appearance of feathered dinosaurs here was more than 159 Myr ago and unquestionably older than Archaeopteryx from Germany, making these the earliest known feathered dinosaurs in the world. Furthermore, the eutherian-placental clade and the known transitional pterosaurs first emerged no later than 161 Myr. The vertebrate assemblage unearthed recent

关键词： Jurassic vertebrates stratigraphy geochronology northeastern china

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Primary environmental factors controlling gully distribution at the local and regional scale:An example from northeastern china

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2021年第1期9卷 58-68页

作者： Yushu Zhou Bin Zhang Wei Qin Qingchun Deng Jun Luo Hui Liu Dan Yang Houling Wang Ying Zhao School of Land and Resources China West Normal UniversityNanchong637009PR China Sichuan Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Monitoring and Control for Soil Erosion on Dry Valleys China West Normal UniversityNanchong637009PR China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing100048PR China Research Center on Soil and Water Conservation of the Ministry of Water Resources Beijing 100048PR China

Gully erosion is the main cause of global land degradation.The factors controlling gully erosion at watershed scale have been extensively studied,but the spatial pattern of gullies and their primary environmental factors are unclear.In order to explore the primary factors at the regional scale of over thousands of square kilometers,34 sample areas were selected in northeastern china and 10 environ-mental factors were proposed.Based on gully interpretations from high-resolution Google Earth images and spatial analysis,kernel density estimation(with polyline features),and correlation analysis,the results show that the maximum kernel density(KD)of the 34 sample areas ranged from 0.11 to 87.16,and there were significant positive correlations between the average KD and the maximum value and standard deviation.At the regional scale,topography(relief amplitude,slope,surface roughness,surface incision,and elevation with correlation coefficients(p)of 0.60,0.59,0.57,0.48,and 0.41 respectively)was the primary environmental factor,with a significant positive correlation with KD.The correlation co-efficients of the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)(p=032),annual precipitation(p=0.19),and soil(silt,sand,and clay content with p of 0.139,-0.117,and 0.085,respectively)decreased succes-sively with the KD.At sample area scale,there were six areas with weak correlations between envi-ronmental factors and KD,20 areas with topographic factors,six areas with annual precipitation,and two areas with NDVI as the primary factor.The correlation between soil texture and KD was low.There were different positive or negative correlations between the environmental factors and KD.The spatial dis-tribution of gullies in northeastern china is heterogeneous,and the primary environmental factors were diverse.This study will help to understand the spatial pattern and formation mechanism of gullies at large scale.

关键词： Gully distribution Environmental factors Kernel density estimation Correlation analysis Large scale northeastern china

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Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern china

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Journal of Forestry Research 2011年第3期22卷 437-446页

作者： TIAN Xiao-rui SHU Li-fu ZHAO Feng-jun WANG Ming-yu Douglas J. McRae State Forestry Administration＇s Key Open Laboratory of Forest Protec- tion Research Institute of Forest Ecology Environment and Protection Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing 100091. Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service 1219 Queen St. E.Sault Ste. Marie Ontario P6A 2E5.

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of china. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in china （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.

关键词： climate change fire season forest fire danger northeastern china

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Forest fire danger ratings in the 2040s for northeastern china

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Forestry Studies in china 2011年第2期13卷 85-96页

作者： TIAN Xiao-rui SHU Li-fu WANG Ming-yu ZHAO Feng-jun Key Open Laboratory of Forest Protection of the State Forestry Administration Research Institute of Forest Ecology Environment and Protection Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing 100091 E R. China

The average temperature of northeastern china is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.

关键词： climate change forest fire danger fire season FWI northeastern china

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Study of seasonal snow cover influencing the ground thermal regime on western flank of Da Xing'anling Mountains,northeastern china

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2015年第6期7卷 666-674页

作者： XiaoLi Chang HuiJun Jin YanLin Zhang HaiBin Sun Hunan University of Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soils Engineering Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences Gen'he Meteorological Administration

Although many studies relevant to snow cover and permafrost have focused on alpine, arctic, and subarctic areas, there is still a lack of understanding of the influences of seasonal snow cover on the thermal regime of the soils in permafrost regions in the mid-latitudes and boreal regions, such as that on the westem flank of the Da Xing＇anling （Hinggan） Mountains, northeastern china. This paper gives a detailed analysis on meteorological data series from 2001 to 2010 provided by the Gen＇he Weather Station, which is located in a talik of discontinuous permafrost zone and with sparse meadow on the observation field. It is inferred that snow cover is important for the ground thermal regime in the middle Da Xing＇anling Mountains. Snow cover of 10-cm in thickness and five to six months in duration （generally November to next March） can reduce the heat loss from the ground to the atmosphere by 28%, and by 71% if the snow depth increases to 36 cm. Moreover, the occurrence of snow cover resulted in mean annual ground surface temperatures 4.7-8.2℃ higher than the mean annual air temperatures recorded at the Gen＇he Weather Station, The beginning date for stable snow cover establishment （SE date） and the initial snow depth （SDi） also had a great influences on the ground freezing process. Heavy snowfall before ground surface freeze-up could postpone and retard the freezing process in Gen＇he. As a result, the duration of ground freezing was shortened by at least 20 days and the maximum depth of frost penetration was as much as 90 cm shallower.

关键词： snow cover thermal regime ground freezing Da Xing＇anling Mountains northeastern china

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