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Application of neural-wavelet network in predicting the incidence of marriage and divorce in Iran

China Population and Development Studies 2021年第2期4卷 439-457页

作者： Fatemeh Torabi Nasibeh Esmaeili Department of Demography University of TehranTehranIran

Marriage has become less common,while the incidence of divorce has risen in Iran.These have made marriage facilitation and divorce prevention as the cornerstone of population policy.It is clear that prediction of the incidence of marriage and divorce will help policy makers to design effective interventions.This paper uses the number of marriages and divorces between 1980 and 2017,published by the Statistical Center of Iran,to predict the incidence of marriage and divorce through 2027 at the national level.Given the limitations of common methods,such as ARMAX,ARMA,MR and AR,in predicting time series with abrupt changes,this paper applies a mixed method,which combines the Neural Network and the Wavelet mathematical tools.The comparison between the data and the results obtained from the wavelet-neural network confirms the precision of the model.The precision and validity of the neural-wavelet network model is further confirmed by the fact that it has been able to reduce the mean sum of square of errors to a larger extent than the Neural Network models.The findings show a 3%decrease in the number of marriages,from 704,716 in 2017 to 683,190 in 2027.On the other hand,the number of divorces has increased by 30%,from 181,049 in 2017 to 235,407 in 2027.Thus,the number of divorces per 100 marriages will increase from 25.7 to 34.5 just in a decade,which calls for effective interventions if family formation and consolidation are to be improved in Iran.

关键词： Marriage Divorce nonlinear behavior Prediction Neural-wavelet network

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nonlinear Backward Magnetic Waves on the Interface between Ferromagnet and Antiferromagnet

Nonlinear Backward Magnetic Waves on the Interface between F...

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1998 International Conference on Microwave and Millimeter Wave Technology

作者： Wang Qi Wu Zhong Wang Li-qiang College of Sciences Shanghai University

ISBN: (纸本)0780343085

＜正＞I.Introduction In a recent paper[1]we demonstrated the frequency characteristics of the magnetic special solitons on the interface between an antiferromagnet and a dielectric.The distinguish feature of the solitons is the existence of the frequency passband（s） and stop-band（s） that can be switched into each other by varying the power.This is because the nonlinear permeability is not only power dependent but also frequency dependent in microwave region.The passband may vary as

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Two-dimensional numericaI study of period-two atmospheric dielectric-barrier discharge in argon

Two-dimensional numericaI study of period-two atmospheric di...

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第十五届全国等离子体科学技术会议

作者： Dingzong Zhang~,Yanhui Wang and Dezhen Wang School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024 P.R.China

As a spatially extended dissipative system with strong nonlinearity,the atmospheric-pressure DBDs could in principle possess complex temporal nonlinear behaviors such as period doubling bifurcation,quasiperiodicity,and chaos,et al. However,the study of these nonlinear phenomena has so far been limited to the observation of nonlinear behaviors.Complex physical mechanism causing theses

关键词： atmospheric dielectric-barrier discharge nonlinear behavior

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