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Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia:multidecadal variability and Decadal Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 625-642页

作者： Jianping LI Tiejun XIE Xinxin TANG Hao WANG Cheng SUN Juan FENG Fei ZHENG Ruiqiang DING Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System-Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography-Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies-Academy of the Future Ocean Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

关键词： winter East Asian surface air temperature North Atlantic Oscillation Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge multidecadal variability

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Near-Term Projections of Global and Regional Land Mean Temperature Changes Considering Both the Secular Trend and multidecadal variability

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第3期32卷 337-350页

作者： Yajie QI Zhongwei YAN Cheng QIAN Ying SUN CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029 Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875

Near-term climate projections are needed by policymakers; however, these projections are difficult because internally generated climate variations need to be considered. In this study, temperature change scenarios in the near-term period 2017-35 are projected at global and regional scales based on a refined multi-model ensemble approach that considers both the secular trend(ST) and multidecadal variability(MDV) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations. The ST and MDV components are adaptively extracted from each model simulation by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) filter, reconstructed via the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) method for the historical period 1901-2005, and validated for 2006-16. In the simulations of the "medium" representative concentration pathways scenario during 2017-35, the MDV-modulated temperature change projected via the refined approach displays an increase of 0.44℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.30 to 0.58℃) for global land, 0.48℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.29 to 0.67℃) for the Northern Hemispheric land(NL), and 0.29℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.23 to 0.35℃) for the Southern Hemispheric land(SL). These increases are smaller than those projected by the conventional arithmetic mean approach. The MDV enhances the ST in 13 of 21 regions across the world. The largest MDV-modulated warming effect(46%) exists in central America. In contrast,the MDV counteracts the ST in NL, SL, and eight other regions, with the largest cooling effect(220%) in Alaska.

关键词： near-term projection multidecadal variability multi-model ensemble method ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) Bayesian model averaging(BMA)

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