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Analysis on Trade Gains from the Economic Dual Circulation in China

China Finance and Economic Review 2023年第3期12卷 83-105页

作者： Shaojun Zhang Yuwen Fang Shantong Li Department of International Economics and Business Xiamen University Department of Development Strategy&Regional Economy Development Research Centre of the State Council

Accelerating the building of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core in light of changes in the development stage,environment and conditions in *** gains are an important indicator of the development trend of domestic and international circulations for a *** the quantitative model of trade gains containing the multi-sectoral input-output relations,this paper estimates the trade gains from the economic dual circulation in China between 1987 and 2017,based on the kernel density estimation and Markov chain,and the main findings are as follows.(1)The trade gains from the domestic circulation in China showed a downward trend,while the trade gains from the international circulation presented a trend of first rising and then *** the former still outweighed the latter.(2)Compared with the international circulation,the continuity,spatial correlation effect and rising potential of the trade gains from China's domestic circulation were greater.(3)There was no positive spatial correlation effect between the trade gains from the domestic and those from the international *** should make overall plans for opening up both externally and internally,and unblock sticking points between the two circulations,so as to realize the positive interaction of the trade gains from the dual circulation,and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic market as the mainstay and domestic and international markets reinforcing each other.

关键词： trade gains dual circulation multi-sectoral input-output model

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