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Understanding the Impacts of Plant Capacities and Uncertainties on the Techno- Economic Analysis of Cross-Laminated Timber Production in the Southern U.S.

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Journal of Renewable Materials 2022年第1期10卷 53-73页

作者： Zhenzhen Zhang Kai Lan Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State UniversityRaleigh27606USA Department of Forest Biomaterials North Carolina State UniversityRaleigh27606USA

Understanding the economic feasibility of cross-laminated timber(CLT),an emerging and sustainable alternative to concrete and steel,is critical for the rapid expansion of the mass timber ***,previous studies on economic performance of CLT have not fully considered the variations in the feedstock,plant capacities,manu-facturing parameters,and capital and operating *** study fills this gap by developing a techno-economic analysis of producing CLT panels in the Southern United *** effects of those variations on minimum sell-ing price(MSP)of CLT panels are explored by Monte Carlo *** results show that,across all the plant capacities from 30,000 to 150,000 m^(3)/year,the MSP ranges from$345 to$609/m^(3) with a±6%–9%range caused by the variations in feedstocks,key manufacturing parameters,capital and operating *** MSP decreases sig-nificantly along the increasing capacities.A sensitivity analysis exhibits that the lumber price,lumber preparing loss,plant capacity,and the installed costs of layering and gluing,finishing,and miscellaneous,are the top driving factors to CLT *** by Geographic Information System,this study also studies the transportation cost of delivering CLT to customers under three CLT demanding levels(1%,5%,15%).The results show that the trans-portation cost is 1%–8%of the *** demanding level or higher plant capacity can increase the transporta-tion cost due to average longer delivering *** considering the delivered cost that sums MSP and transportation cost,larger plant capacity does not necessarily generate lower delivered cost.

关键词： Cross-laminated timber techno-economic analysis plant capacity uncertainty minimum selling price

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