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Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 427-443页

作者： Guilin LIU Xinsheng ZHOU Yi KOU Fang WU Daniel ZHAO Yu XU College of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China Dornsife College University of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridgeMA 02138USA Shandong Key Laboratory of marine Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China

The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary *** better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is *** proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design *** method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic *** aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the *** epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction *** advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model *** show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the *** the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the *** the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation *** presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of u

关键词： South China Sea marine environmental design parameters model uncertainty information entropy Monte Carlo method

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