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Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China

Journal of Environmental Sciences 2014年第8期26卷 1631-1640页

作者： Yun Zhou Fanghua Hao Wei Meng Jiafeng Fu School of Environment Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

China＇s increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution,but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China＇s primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China＇s transition to low-carbon development,three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO2 emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System（LEAP） model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product（GDP） growth rate of 6.45%,total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%,48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual（BaU）,carbon Reduction（CR）and Integrated low carbon Economy（ILCE） scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 6.7 billion tons in 2009 to 9.5,11,11.6 and11.2 billion tons; 8.2,9.2,9.6 and 9 billion tons; 7.1,7.4,7.2 and 6.4 billion tons in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 under the BaU,CR and ILCE scenarios,respectively. Total CO2 emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050,compared with the BaU *** realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions,China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency,optimization of energy structure,deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

关键词： Energy consumption Environmental pollution Climate change low-carbon development

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An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第5期12卷 710-722页

作者： LIU Tian-Le SONG Qi-Jiao Jiaqi LU QI Ye Division of Public Policy Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina Institute for Public Policy Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina School of Humanities and Social Sciences North China Electric Power UniversityBeijing102206China Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin–MadisonMadison53706USA Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin–MadisonMadison53706USA School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

Collaborative governance between ecological environment and climate change is a novel signature in China's policy agenda. However, such coordination remains understudied, especially at the local level. Using the principal component analysis, entropy evaluation methods, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), we evaluated the level of coordination between carbon and air quality mitigation from 34 low-carbon pilot cities in China. We also illustrated the mechanism and policy formation that leads to different coupling patterns at the local level using three case studies. We found that most pilot cities perform a medium level of coupling coordination between low carbon development and air quality. The result reveals that most low-carbon pilot cities score relatively well in low-carbon development. Further, there is a significant cleavage in air quality between cities in the North and those in the South, indicating pilot cities in the South coordinate better than those in the North. In particular, pilot programs in the Southwest and Southeast coastal region perform well in collaborative governance, while the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region is rated poorly because of the gap between air quality and low carbon development. Also, we found that the same low-carbon policy might have heterogeneous effects on different air pollutants and across different regions. The local government should adopt low-carbon development policies that address local level specific environmental and economic conditions to maximize their air pollution mitigation benefits.

关键词： low-carbon development Air quality Coupling coordination degree model low carbon pilot city

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The importance and potential of photovoltaics in the context of low-carbon development in Poland

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Energy Storage and Saving 2022年第3期1卷 162-165页

作者： Maciej Dzikuć Arkadiusz Piwowar Maria Dzikuć Faculty of Economics and Management University of Zielona Góra65-417Zielona GóraPoland Faculty of Economics and Finance Wroclaw University of Economics and Business53-345WrocławPoland

The main topic of the study is the development of photovoltaic systems in Poland,and its main goal is to char-acterize the current situation and development prospects in a given subject area in the context of the growing importance of the low-carbon economy in *** study uses both secondary and primary(Foresight)*** development of photovoltaic micro-installations in Poland,recorded in recent years,was possible thanks to the state *** administrative barriers have been removed;legal provisions have been simplified and adapted to small,distributed ***,there is a risk of a slowdown in the high dynamics of rates on the analyzed market in Poland due to changes in legal solutions introduced by the state.

关键词： Energy Economy Photovoltaics Energy storage low-carbon development Poland

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Research on low-carbon development of electric power industry:from the perspectives of public policy

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Ecological Economy 2010年第4期6卷 334-341页

作者： RAN Jing-liang ZENG Shao-lun School of Economics and Management Sichuan University of Science ＆ Engingering Zigong 643000 P. R. China

It is a fundamental way to achieve sustainable development and inclusive growth that China takes the low-carbon development *** low-carbon development is an effective way to respond to many threats,including global climate anomalies,environmental degradation,and energy ***-carbon economy is policy economy to a large *** the external environment demands low-carbon development of electric power industry,enterprises lack intrinsic *** power industry is the pillar industry of China,and is one of the key industries for China's low-carbon *** government needs to ensure its dominant position in the low-carbon development of electric power industry,and reform the government performance management system and promote the planning and management of electric power industry through appropriate public policy,in order to adjust the structure of the electric power industry and take a low-carbon development road with Chinese characteristics.

关键词： Electric power industry Energy saving and emission reduction low-carbon development Public policy

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The Moral Interpretation of low carbon development

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学术界 2014年第2期 254-258页

作者： Guo Liangjing Department of Philosophy Nanjing University

Due to greenhouse gas emission,human beings have suffered a lot,so low-carbon development becomes a necessity. The concept of "low-carbon development " is comprehensive,including the follow ing aspects: low-carbon economy,low-carbon lifestyle,low-carbon city and low-carbon society. low-carbon development itself is a moral development which has rich moral connotation. Firstly,low-carbon development reflects being thrifty; secondly,with low- carbon development,the moral subject bears moral responsibility consciously; thirdly,low-carbon development is the sublimation of the relation between human beings and nature. low-carbon development has already had achievements and rich resources to mirror. As a result,low-carbon development shall be advocated so that life will be better.

关键词： global warming low-carbon low-carbon development moral interpretation

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Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

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Ecological Economy 2010年第1期6卷 2-20页

作者： ZHANG Fa-shu SUN Zhen-qing JIANG Dong-mei YANG Zheng-jing TIAN Dong-lang SHI Hai-yan Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Tsinghua Universty Beijing 100084P.R.China Institute of low carbon Economy Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 P. R. China School of Economy and Management Tianjin University of Science and Technology Tianjin 300222P.R.China Tianjin Municipal Committee of development and Reform Tianjin 300040P.R.China

low-carbon economic development has become *** approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.

关键词： Scenario analysis low-carbon development carbon productivity,Tianjin

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development path of Chinese low-carbon cities based on index evaluation

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 144-153页

作者： YANG Xiu WANG Xue-Chun ZHOU Ze-Yu National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation Beijing 100038 China

This work takes the 36 cities from China＇s low-carbon pilot project as the research object and uses the carbon emission per capita and GDP per capita to categorize the 36 cities into four types to reveal their low-carbon development status; these four types are leading cities, developing cities, latecomer cities, and exploring cities. On the basis of an index system that quantitatively describes low-carbon development, this research analyzes the characteristics, development trends, and low-carbon development pathways of the four types of cities. According to the present situation and objectives of national emissions and considering the differences in development stages, challenges, and opportunities for each type of the city, this research presents recommendations for the low-carbon roadmap and the medium- and long-term （by 2030） emission trend routes of different types of regions in China.

关键词： City low-carbon development Index evaluation development path

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CYBERNETIC PARADIGM BASED INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TOWARDS COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2017年第3期26卷 359-382页

作者： Yi Lu Jiuping Xu Uncertainty Decision-making Laboratory Sichuan University Chengdu 610064 China Engineering Research Center of low carbon Technology and Economy Sichuan University Chengdu 610064 China

Increasing carbon emissions from large-scale human activities have contributed to global climate change, which has resulted in an increase in significant human crises. Therefore, as carbon abatement is a public good, coping with climate change is also a public-good; however, it suffers from many free-rider incentives, leading to a tragedy of the commons. Overcoming this challenge from a systemic perspective, requires that all sectors such as industry, government, and citizens on global, national, and regional levels engage in low-carbon development and the implementation of fair and efficient climate policies. Through a theoretical exploration of carbon abatement and a systemic description of low-carbon systems, this paper developed a cybernetic framework for coping with climate change, which consists of a cloud platform for data analysis, meta-synthetic engineering for decision support, a polycentric approach to extensive consultation and various functional goal achievement modules. On this basis, by combining the ＂invisible hand＂ and ＂visible hand＂ and by integrating negotiation at the global level, cooperation at the national level and knowledge at the local level, a multilevel policymaking model is proposed to address complex climate change problems. This cybernetic paradigm based innovative approach could provide valuable illumination to stakeholders seeking to cope with climate change.

关键词： Cybernetics climate change carbon abatement public good low-carbon development

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Progress of Air Pollution Control in China and Its Challenges and Opportunities in the Ecological Civilization Era

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Engineering 2020年第12期6卷 1423-1431页

作者： Xi Lu Shaojun Zhang Jia Xing Yunjie Wang Wenhui Chen Dian Ding Ye Wu Shuxiao Wang Lei Duan Jiming Hao State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex Beijing 100084China

China’s past economic growth has substantially relied on fossil fuels,causing serious air pollution *** economic growth and pollution has become the focus in developing ecological civilization in *** have analyzed the three-decade progress of air pollution controls in China,highlighting a strategic transformation from emission control toward air quality *** control of sulfur dioxide(SO2)resolved the deteriorating acid rain issue in China in *** 2013,control actions on multiple precursors and sectors have targeted the reduction of the concentration of fine particulate matter(PM2.5),marking a transition to an air-quality-oriented *** ozone(O3)pollution further requires O3 and PM2.5 integrated control strategies with an emphasis on their complex photochemical *** improvement of air quality in China,as a key indicator for the success of ecological civilization construction,demands the deep de-carbonization of China’s energy system as well as more synergistic pathways to address air pollution and global climate change simultaneously.

关键词： Air pollution control Ecological civilization PM2.5 low-carbon development Ozone

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Comparative study of energy consumption and CO2 emissions between Beijing and London

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Frontiers in Energy 2013年第1期7卷 1-5页

作者： Zhihua CAI Kunmin OU Xu ZHANG Xiliang ZHANG Jiankun HE Yangang XING Institute of Energy Environment and Economy Tsinghua University China Automotive Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China low carbon Research Institute and Welsh School of Architecture Cardiff University Cardiff CF 10 3AT UK

From the view of geographic location, climate and population status, this paper makes a comparative study of the economy structure, transport system, energy supply and carbon emissions among a few cities, especially between Beijing and London, two mega-cities in the world. The developed tertiary industry, consummate transport system and low-carbon energy supply system in London can be referenced to assist Beijing in establishing a low-carbon development pathway. The difference in the statistical coverage of population between these two cities also brings about the divergence of energy consumption per capita and CO2 emissions per capita between them.

关键词： Beijing London CO2 emissions energy consumption low-carbon development

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