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production Chain length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

China Economist 2024年第3期19卷 49-69页

作者： Ni Hongfu Yan Bingqian Wu Liyuan School of Economics University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(UCASS)BeijingChina Institute of Economic Research Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(IE-CASS) National Academy of Economic Strategy CASS(NAES-CASS) Institute of World Economics and Politics CASS(IWEP-CASS)

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial ***’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production *** question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI *** findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on *** effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output ***,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and *** results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,*** lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI *** is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and *** can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

关键词： Global value chains length of production chains consumer price index producer price index

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