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Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

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Journal of Arid land 2024年第6期16卷 852-874页

作者： CHEN Jiazhen KASIMU Alimujiang REHEMAN Rukeya WEI Bohao HAN Fuqiang ZHANG Yan School of Geography and Tourism Xinjiang Normal UniversityUrumqi 830054China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone Urumqi 830054China School of Geography and Tourism Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710062China

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level land use simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation func

关键词： PLUS model InVEST model Bosten Lake Basin water yield water conservation land-use simulation Geodetector

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