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Study on Numerical Simulation of the Impact of the land-surface process in a Meiyu Front Rainstorm

Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第10期2卷 78-83,94页

作者： LI Peng1,2 1.North China Power Engineering Co.,Ltd.of China Power Engineering Consultant Group Corporation,Beijing 100011,China 2.China Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China

[Objective] The research aimed to carry out numerical simulation on impact of land-surface process in a Meiyu front rainstorm.[Method] Based on the meso-scale atmospheric non-hydrostatic model GRAPES-Meso which coupled with NOAH land-surface module,a Meiyu front rainstorm in Jianghuai basin during 6-8 July,2005 was *** sensitivity tests with and without land-surface process,the impact of land-surface process on Meiyu front rainstorm was studied.[Result] GRAPES-Meso which coupled with NOAH land-surface process could simulate daily variation characteristics of Meiyu front precipitation and atmospheric low-level southwest *** land-surface process could improve the simulations of precipitation initiation,intensity and *** improvement of precipitation initiation simulation was especially obvious,which solved spin-up problem of model to some *** the land-atmosphere interaction wasn’t considered,the precipitation initiation of model was very *** intensity evolution of simulated precipitation was different from actual ***,it couldn’t simulate daily variation characteristics of precipitation and southwest jet.[Conclusion] The land-surface process had important impact on Meiyu process in Jianghuai basin.

关键词： GRAPES-Meso Rainstorm NOAH land-surface process Numerical simulation China

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A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第2期40卷 285-304页

作者： Qiujie REN Mu MU Guodong SUN Qiang WANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important *** is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all ***,identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is *** study proposes a novel approach:conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA)*** CNOPSA method fully considers the nonlinear synergistic effects of parameters in the whole parameter space and quantitatively estimates the maximum effects of parameter uncertainties,prone to extreme *** of the analytical g-function test indicate that the CNOPSA method can effectively identify the sensitivity of *** results of the theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model show that the maximum influence of the simulated wilted biomass caused by parameter uncertainty can be estimated and computed by employing the CNOPSA *** identified sensitive parameters can easily change the simulation or prediction of the wilted biomass,which affects the transformation of the grassland state in the grassland *** variance-based approach may underestimate the parameter sensitivity because it only considers the influence of limited parameter samples from a statistical *** study verifies that the CNOPSA method is effective and feasible for exploring the important and sensitive physical parameters or parameter combinations in numerical models.

关键词： physical parameters parameter uncertainty sensitivity analysis nonlinear optimization land-surface process

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