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Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of land use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Chinese Geographical Science 2024年第3期34卷 487-503页

作者： AN Yue TAN Xuelan REN Hui LI Yinqi ZHOU Zhou College of Resources Hunan Agricultural UniversityChangsha 410128China School of Geographic Science Hunan Normal UniversityChangsha 410081China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate *** study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management *** Future land use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and *** on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to *** findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest *** changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to *** the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously *** loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and *** the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 *** loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary *** the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban *** research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

关键词： land use change Future land use Simulation(FLUS)model carbon storage carbon density dataset land use scenario China

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