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Dam Break Flood Risk AssesSment for laiyang city

Journal of Geological Resource and Engineering 2014年第4期2卷 189-199页

作者： Li Changzhi Wang Hong Chi Zhixue Yang Yongfeng Rao Zhengfu Cope Mike China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038 China Dept. of Water Resources Jinan 250013 China Halcrow China Limited Level 10 Millennium City 6392 Kwun Tong Road Kowloon Hong Kong

A dam failure analysis was performed for the city of laiyang to determine the flood inundation extents and the breach velocities of a hypothetical failure of the Muyu Reservoir Dam in Shandong Province, China. The study was carried out in four steps. First, the possible reasons of the dam failure were analyzed, and the extreme hydrological event was identified as the most critical cause Second, a numerical simulation of the dam break flood was performed. The key factors considered in this simulation include the water level at the dam （the check flood water level）, the inflow to the reservoir （the check flood hydrograph）, and two typical structural scenarios （with/without-levees） along the river reach downstream of the reservoir. Third, based on flood simulations, flood hazard risk analysis was conducted and the results indicate that the peak discharge would be over 40,000 m3/s at the breachand over 22,000 m3/s near laiyang city. As a result, most of the urban area would be flooded; the duration from the beginning of the dam break to the arrival of peak discharge at laiyang city is less than half an hour. Finally, a plan for integrated dam break flood management was presented to mitigate the flood risk; both available structural and nonstructural measures were proposed according to the situations in the river basin. The main strategic advises include flood emergency planning, flood risk mapping, flood monitoring and early warning system construction, reservoir regulation, and flood risk public awareness.

关键词： Dam-break flood risk assessment laiyang city strategy.

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