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Grandparent-provided childcare and labor force participation of mothers with preschool children in Urban China

China Population and Development Studies 2019年第2期2卷 347-368页

作者： Fenglian Du Xiao‑yuan Dong Yinyu Zhang Inner Mongolian University HohhotChina University of Winnipeg WinnipegCanada

This paper investigates the effects of grandparent-provided childcare and the access to daycare services on the labor force participation of mothers with children under 7 years old in urban China.Using two-stage residual inclusion method,the analysis finds that grandparent-provided childcare and the access to daycare services both have strong positive effects on maternal labor force participation(MLFP).Specifically,having grandparent-provided childcare increases MLFP by 38-43%,whereas having access to daycare services increases MLFP by 24-29%.The analysis also finds that having a healthy grandmother is a significant determinant in whether grandparent-provided childcare is utilized and that the demand for grandparent-provided childcare is higher in localities in which daycare services for children under 3 years old are more expensive.These results indicate that grandparents,particularly grandmothers,play an important role in sustaining MLFP,particularly as the supply of publicly funded daycare programs is declining.

关键词： Grandparent-provided childcare labor force participation Two-stage residual inclusion(2SRI)method

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Higher Education Expansion in China,1999-2003:Impact on Graduate Employability

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China & World Economy 2022年第2期30卷 117-141页

作者： Dongshu Ou Zhong Zhao Department of Educational Administration and Policy The Chinese University of Hong KongChina School of labor and Human Resources Renmin University of ChinaChinaand Institute of Labor Economics(IZA)BonnGermany.

We examine the impact of China s higher education expansion on labor market outcomes for young college graduates using China s 20051 Percent Population Sample Survey.Exploiting variations in the expansion of university places across provinces and high school cohorts between 1999 and 2003,we apply a difference-in-differences model and take into account the demand-side effect by using the Bartik index.We find that the expansion of higher education in China decreased unemployment rates among males and college graduates in the short term.However,the policy decreased women s labor force participation and individual earnings in high-skilled white-collar jobs.We further discuss potential channels affecting the outcomes that were observed.Our results illustrate the broad economic benefits of higher education.The findings shed new light on the contribution of young skilled labor in the economic growth of China and call for policies that can alleviate the short-term negative impact of higher education on individual students and maximize human capital.Our study also provides an interesting example of the consequences of the unequal expansion of higher education opportunities on the labor market of an emerging economy.

关键词： difference-in・dififerences higher education expansion labor force participation unemployment wage

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Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China

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China & World Economy 2013年第2期21卷 1-14页

作者： Fang Cai Yang Lu Institute of Population and labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

As a result of the shrinking working age population （aged 15 to 59 years）, all factors that have driven China＇s rapid economic growth over the past 30years tend to diminish from 2010. The present paper estimates the average annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.2percent over the 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.1 percent over the 13th Five-year Plan period. Future sustainable growth requires furthering economic reform in related areas to enhance potential growth. This paper simulates two scenarios in which both an increase in labor force participation and improvement in total factor productivity can significantly enhance the potential GDP growth rate. Relevant policy implications are discussed.

关键词： labor force participation population change potential GDP growth rate total factor productivity

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The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

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China & World Economy 2020年第5期28卷 26-44页

作者： Fang Cai Chinese Academy of Social Sciences China

As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.

关键词： aging demographic dividend labor force participation population echo effect

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China's labor Transition and the Future of China's Rural Wages and Employment

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China & World Economy 2013年第3期21卷 4-24页

作者： Qiang Li Jikun Huang Renfu Luo Chengfang Liu Beijing Forestry University Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences

This paper contributes to the assessment of China＇s rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one＇s province to destinations closer to home. The present paperfinds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China＇s rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China ＂s rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women （and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs）. Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China＇s growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm.

关键词： China labor force participation rural wages

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Balance and Sharing:Women's Childcare Time and Family's Help

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Contemporary Social Sciences 2018年第5期3卷 70-84页

作者： Zheng Zhenzhen Wu Lingwei The Institute of Population and labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

It is of crucial importance for professional women to strike a balance between childcare and work.Help from family can effectively reduce women's time spent on childcare.Based on relevant survey,this paper successively analyzes the time of mother,father and grandparents invested in childcare and explores how women are supported by their family in this duty.Infant and childcare can be as time-consuming as a full-time job.Mothers have always played a primary role in infant and childcare,while grandparents,offering a helping hand to effectively alleviate the mother's workload,can play an alternative role,which is of great significance.This is particularly true in early childhood,when more than 40% of Chinese children are under the care of grandparents,with relatively limited participation of their fathers.Childcare gap between mothers and fathers is even larger in rural China.It is quite common for a family to turn to nursery services when their child are three years old to significantly alleviate the mother's childcare burden.When it comes to the design of relevant public policies and projects,consideration should be given to the role of each family member in taking care of infants and children in different growth stages to explore more options for childcare.More specifically,in addition to motherhood,grandparents' support should be valued,and fatherhood should be enhanced.

关键词： women labor force participation childcare time utilization family policy

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人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨

国民经济管理

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国民经济管理 2016年第7期 75-87页

作者：翟振武郑睿臻

随着生育率的下降和平均预期寿命的提高，全球将不可逆转地进入老龄化社会。作为最大的发展中国家，中国正在进入持续40年的高速老龄化时期。中国多数人的观点认为人口老龄化会抑制中国经济的增长，甚至会导致经济的衰退。美国也同样面... 详细信息

随着生育率的下降和平均预期寿命的提高，全球将不可逆转地进入老龄化社会。作为最大的发展中国家，中国正在进入持续40年的高速老龄化时期。中国多数人的观点认为人口老龄化会抑制中国经济的增长，甚至会导致经济的衰退。美国也同样面临老龄化的问题，但是美国国家科学院的研究报告却对美国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系做出了不一样的结论。人口老龄化对政府开支会有显著影响，但对劳动生产率和创新的影响很小，对资产价格也不会有大的影响。老龄化导致的私人资产积累甚至有可能对经济产生积极作用。整体来说，人口老龄化对生活水平的影响是有限的，对于整个宏观经济的影响是温和的。这些观点和结论对中国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨具有重要启发和借鉴。

关键词：老龄化宏观经济劳动参与率生产率储蓄　　aging macroeconomy labor force participation productivity saving

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出口与女性的劳动参与率

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国际贸易研究 2015年第2期 95-110页

作者：钱学锋魏朝美

在中国人口结构转变、人口红利正逐步消失的背景下，研究中国制造业企业出口对女性劳动参与率的影响，探讨中国出口导向的增长方式是否会加剧人口红利的消失、进而对经济增长造成不利的影响，有着极为重要的理论与现实意义。理论上，出... 详细信息

在中国人口结构转变、人口红利正逐步消失的背景下，研究中国制造业企业出口对女性劳动参与率的影响，探讨中国出口导向的增长方式是否会加剧人口红利的消失、进而对经济增长造成不利的影响，有着极为重要的理论与现实意义。理论上，出口的扩张能够影响劳动力市场上的性别就业供给，或者通过改变行业的生产和资源的重新分配来影响劳动力的性别构成，最终影响女性的劳动参与率。使用2004年中国工业企业数据库的企业层面数据，经验研究发现，随着出口密度的增加，女性劳动参与率显著增大。在解决内生性、改变变量定义及更换样本估计之后，研究结论均较为稳健。由于女性劳动参与率与妇女生育率之间可能存在的负向关系，说明出口在提高女性劳动参与率的同时，也降低了妇女的生育率，出口会对一国人口结构的转变产生影响。因此，中国转变出口导向型发展模式的政策意蕴，不仅有助于提升中国经济增长的质量，还将有助于缓解人口红利逐步消失的负面影响。这意味着，除了对计划生育政策进行调整之外，通过调整出口导向型的贸易发展方式，也是缓解中国人口困境的一个渠道。

关键词：出口女性劳动参与率生育率　　export female labor force participation fertility

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女性劳动参与对家庭储蓄率的影响

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理论经济学 2019年第8期

作者：尹志超张诚

中国家庭的高储蓄是一个广受关注的问题，本文试图从女性劳动参与的角度对中国家庭的高储蓄给出解释。首先从理论上探讨了女性劳动参与和家庭储蓄率之间的关系，然后利用2017年中国家庭金融调查数据对此进行了实证检验。为克服内生性的... 详细信息

中国家庭的高储蓄是一个广受关注的问题，本文试图从女性劳动参与的角度对中国家庭的高储蓄给出解释。首先从理论上探讨了女性劳动参与和家庭储蓄率之间的关系，然后利用2017年中国家庭金融调查数据对此进行了实证检验。为克服内生性的影响，采用同一社区、同一年龄段的其他已婚女性劳动参与率作为家庭中已婚女性劳动参与的工具变量，实证检验已婚女性劳动参与对家庭储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明，已婚女性劳动参与显著增加家庭储蓄率。异质性分析发现，已婚女性劳动参与对20岁到30岁女性家庭、大学及以上教育水平和有二孩意愿家庭的储蓄率有显著影响。进一步研究发现，已婚女性劳动参与促进家庭储蓄率增加的原因是，家庭的收入水平显著增加，而家庭消费水平未发生显著性改变。同时，现阶段中国女性劳动参与没有显著降低家庭预防性储蓄动机，反而进一步提升了家庭储蓄率。本文为理解中国家庭的高储蓄提供了新的视角，可以为未来制定政策提供参考。

关键词：已婚女性家庭储蓄率劳动参与 Married Women Household Savings labor force participation

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