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Improvement of Forage Production Sustainability in the Leningrad Region under Climate Change

Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A) 2013年第10期3卷 797-802页

作者： Vladimir Surovtsev Vadim Molodkin Yulia Nikulina Mikhail Ponomarev Department of Development of Agricultural Sectors North-West Research Institute of Agricultural Economics and OrganizationShosse Podbelskogo Pushkin Saint-Petersburg 196608 Russia Department of Development Biotroph Company Ltd. Pushkin Saint-Petersburg 196602 Russia

The increase of probability and depth of weather anomalies, which is important characteristic of climate change process, leads to higher risk of loss of perennial grasses forage yield, rise of price volatility on forage grain market. Increase of sustainability of dairy production supposes development of adapted to new weather conditions technologies of forage production, which are characterized by different investment and current costs. It generates a need of economic evaluation and comparative analysis of technologies taking into account climate change forecast and need of sustainable forage production guarantee. Purpose of the research project is the development of approaches to assessing adaptive technologies in forage production, increasing of dairy farming sustainability to changes in the external environment, including climate change. We assessed changes in forage production technologies in the Leningrad region of Russia, analyzed the implications of these changes for production and financial performance of dairy farming, proposed and tested methods for determination of the optimum harvesting time of perennial grasses. Special attention is paid to the long-term effects of changing the structure of cows＇ diet--shortening the productive use of animals, which reduces the efficiency.of dairy herd use and limits the possibility of expanded reproduction. The primary method of the study is the analysis of milk production statistics in the Leningrad region and the Russian Federation. As a result of the study, the necessity to improve the production and investment planning quality, as well as the use of forecasts during planning of dairy production, is grounded.

关键词： Dairy production forage production climate change adaptation investment efficiency.

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