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作者： International Monetary Institute,Renmin University of China International Monetary Institute Renmin University of China

Editor’s Note:The internationalization of rmb is a key research area of *** the first issue of the "internationalization of the rmb:2012 Annual Report" and the initiate of RII,IMI has been composing and releasing the Report for consecutive *** following Conclusions and Policy Implications are excerpt from the"internationalization of the rmb:2013 Annual Report" which sets the topic on

关键词： internationalization of the rmb Annual Report Conclusions and Policy Implications

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Are Offshore rmb Arrangements the Basis for a Long-term Exchange Rate System without Convertibility?

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China & World Economy 2013年第1期21卷 26-46页

作者： John Whalley Hejing Chen Department of Economics Western University Western University

This paper discusses China＇s relatively new structure of dual onshore and offshore rmb markets. Its distinguishingJeature is both offshore trading at exchange rates that are market determined and onshore trading at exchange rates anchored at the official spot rate with capital account inconvertibility. We note that thus far the CNH and CNY spot rates have largely tracked each other, suggesting that the shadow priee on the convertibility constraint onshore and also the offshore diversification benefit is close to zero. However, this could change in the future. We discuss the potentialJbr the offshore rmb market to grow with trade settlement and bilateral ,swap arrangements in rmb, which would provide a big enough pool ofliquidityforthe rmb to become a vehicle currency and reserve c^rrency. These potential developments will be restrained by onshore inconvertibility, but moving to convertibility seemingly implies major change in China ＂s financial structure and the offshore rmb arrangements are only a small first step along this path. Crucial in this evolution of arrangements will be fi^ture Chinese growth performance and the relative attractiveness of onshore inconvertible but offshore marketable RA4B relative to the debt laden and slow growth currencies of the USA, the EU and Japan.

关键词： convertibility internationalization of the rmb offshore rmb market onshore . rmb market shadow price

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